Another year?
 

Right now, I'm in a position where I can wait about another year to see if things improve and hiring starts again. Past that point, I may decide/need to move on to something else. I don't want that to happen though.

Is there any real chance hiring could take place in that time frame, or are there just too many guys on furlough who need to be called back in order to make that happen?

I get the sense things are improving, but who knows. Michael Darda is a CNBC contributor and a prominent economist for a well-known hedge fund. Last year, he was as big a bear as there could be, but today he has become a raging bull on economic recovery. He's got a good track record. I just thought I would throw that out so I could end on a positive.

Any feedback would be appreciated.

Nobody knows how long till the industry gets back on its feet. I would however not take career planning advice based on what people on this forum think, a lot of negative people are on here.

I'll just touch on this, i'm sure other people have more to chime in on in terms of where the industry is going, but i'll leave that up to them... It depends where you want to go. Gojets is hiring right now but you wouldn't want to go there. I'm sure with Republic getting more 190's, it won't be long before they start hiring. Again, that's a road you don't want to go down. As well as Mesa but I think they are just barely getting by now. As far as other regionals...I don't know what alot of them got coming up. I have heard that Air wisconsin, which is burning through furloughs at a pretty quick rate might be hiring sometime next spring.

What do you mean?
 

It all depends upon what you mean by "hiring starting again". Places will start to hire again however it will be a long time before the industry sees some substantial hiring and 30 years to never before we see the likes of a few years ago.

SKyhigh

Where did you get that figure from?

Whacker, I suggest reading into some of the forums. That will give you a pretty good look into how the industry is. Might make you want to run away though... Keep in mind though that some people are always unhappy and will be complaining their entire lives. No matter where they are or what they are doing.

There you go, exhibit A ^ provided by non other than Mr Positive

It's impossible to know what the time frame will be before hiring resumes. However, you can count on this....at some point everyone will start a slow hiring process. That will turn into hiring like gangbusters right up until the day that they all furlough, and the cycle will repeat over and over. History repeats itself in this industry time and time again.

Of course there is going to be negative comments that is the reality of the industry. Do you want people to get on here and lie and tell him it will soon be amazing and after a few short years at a regional he will be pulling down the big bucks at a major. Truth of the matter is no one can predict the future but if the past is any indication of a trend then it does not look good. Majors are shrinking so is the pay, regionals are getting larger and larger planes furloughs are looming at most carriers ect.. This current trend has continued unabated for some time with very little positive news. All you can really do is take the wait and see approach and just hope for the best.

6-10 months after any sort of economic recovery (airlines lag other industries), and then factor in the point where the effects of age 65 start wearing off...those two variables are complete unknowns...I'm banking on 2012, b/c it's been said it will be the end of the world before there is a pilot shortage, and well, you know, all those people say the world is coming to an end in 2012...so you'll see a huge boom in pilot hiring and attrition right before the world comes to an end...

At least I'll have marketable skills in hades...because, you know, it's evil to make people ride in RJs, so I'm sure there are lots of them down there...

Watching/Reading CNBC will not only make you stupid, you'll be poor....

Don't wait on aviation, go do something else then re-visit aviation when the hiring starts up again

Bingo. Do what you want.

Actually Republic is planning on furloughing 150-400 more pilots by fall. I have 4 friends that fly for them (2 still flying and 2 furloughed) and this is what is being talked about right now with management. However I wouldn't put Republic in the GoJets category yet because if the pilots are able to negotiate a minimum of JetBlue payrates for the 190, then the other payrates will have to increase as well making everything all better once again. As a furloughed pilot I too am hoping that things pick up within a year or maybe less but I'm not holding my breath. Good luck Whacker77 in what you decide to do as well as to everyone else who is struggling!

I think RAH pilots have been getting a lot of flack recently, I agree its disgraceful they are flying those planes for that pay, but MANAGEMENT of RAH & Midwest are to blame, it will be interesting to see what RAH pilots do. If they sit there idle and fly that plane at the current pay scales, that will be disappointing, but I wouldn't write em off just yet, give it some time lets see if they negotiate proper pay rates.

anyway no point in trying to guess where the industry is going, if you have a "non-aviation" opportunity go for it and re-visit aviation when that opportunity presents itself, may be quite a while

Had to make another scrrename Joey cause you were banned huh?:D

Seriously how could they ban the SAAB?! Welcome back LoL

i disagree with going to find something else and coming back to aviation when it presents itself.

do what you love to do. if you have the passion to fly airplanes like everyone else on this forum then stick with it go for it.

my father always said to never chase a job based on the economy, it never ever works out and/or you will never be happy....

I would like to see this happen.

But before this can come to pass, whipsawing would need to end.

Or at least modified to mean the whipsaw only cuts the shortest blades of grass...

Hold the phone and wait to negotiate, JetBlue is changing their rates this week. Maybe they can hold off and get more?????

Hey, it's nothing I've never done.

HAHA.

I was wondering what had ever happened to SAAbrowski!!! I thought maybe he deserted our wonderful community in favor of the enemy forums (jetcareers, flight info, BOO, etc). APC

Where?
 

It seems to me that every 30 years there is manic hiring boom. The 1960's saw 250 hour new hires at the majors. We just saw the age of the 250 hour regional pilot.

I guess that would make it every 40 years.

Skyhigh

You will be able to find a job but it will only be at a place that no one would go to under normal hiring conditions, which means you'll be stuck. The others will not be hiring for a long time and there's actually talks about more furloughs at the regionals. The best part is once you actually make it to an airline 6 to 24 months from now you'll be making 20,000 with a very bleak future. Good luck! I can't imagine why anyone would be looking or training for the regionals.

Wow. Begin ridiculously high post count...NOW! :D

:D I missed this place, I love you people :)

Even if there is a small amount of hiring is a CFI even competitive? There are lots of very experienced high time pilots out there scraping for employment. Yes there may be a trickle of hiring, how will you stack up to the competition.:cool:

we wont stack up unless you have tons of hours. ive pretty much accepted the fact that teaching is gonna be my job for a very long time. my ~1000/100 doesnt mean crap anymore. its called.....the rigors of CFIing....

I would say things are bleak, but I think there are two important things to consider. First, airlines entered this downturn with lean staffing. Even though there was a hiring boom in 2007, many weren't overstaffed when furloughs began. With few exceptions, individual company furloughs haven't been too high.

Second, the age 65 retirements may come a little sooner than we expect. While many may work past 60, I have heard from an AA pilot that most in his group don't expect to work past 62 or 63. That might bring back some industry wide hiring next year, or it may not.

I'm not an optimist by nature, but things could turn around sooner than we think. Still, I conceded it's pretty gloomey out there. Better than it was in January to March though.

Not quite. In a year you'd have another 1000 hours so you would have 2000 hours, which is more than respectable for most regionals. Most good regionals like guys with a good amount of CFI time. CFI as much as you can in the coming months and rack up those twin times if you can. And get the ATP. It will give you the edge.

Looking at all the latest indications, 90% of the economists are predicting economic recovery by the end of this year so we'll see if airlines will start hiring again in a year's time.

Just know airline business is cyclical and very unstable. So if you are looking for any type of job security or guarantees that you will make to the majors, forget about it. There are guys out there right now who spent 9 to 10 years at a regional and left their regional CA job to go to the majors and a good many of them were furloughed last year and some are back to being an FO on another regional making about $24,000 a year with a family to support.

I could see some hiring in Spring 2010 for the summer peak season if the economy truly turns around in 4th quarter of this year...that's the earliest firm timeframe where I'd feel comfortable predicting some hiring...there seems to still be a trickle of folks retiring and just getting out of the industry, medicals busted, et cetera...

Why don't you do 135 once you hit 135 PIC mins? I think they're still hiring...might add some more variety to your background so you can say "you've done it all." Just a thought!!!

135 jobs aren't as plentiful as people seem to think. As nice as it would be to go fly 135, a lot of those jobs have been filled by guys who were put on the street by the airlines. I'm happy to have a job right now, but being a CFI these days is rough, because we simply can't compete with the amount of high time guys on the street.

Hell, I know of two 135 jobs I've lost to pilots with less time than me, simply because they had the 121 experience. Oh well, nothing I can do but keep instructing, looking for a job and hoping for the best.

As for the original thread, I'd say if the economy recovers as predicted, we might see recalls next spring and summer, and if we're lucky, hiring within 6-12mos after that.