My theory on the regional roll of the dice
 

Regionals are a gamble most of us are taking at some point in our aviation careers. You make the best choice you can to get where you want to go in the future, be it a major or perhaps a regional career in city XYZ. We all weighed possible future benefits against immediate gratification. Some guys did more research than others and each put a different premium on QOL they'd have for the next five-ish years of their career. The following is a quick overview of a few paths I've seen taken and my thoughts on them.

Of my circle of acquaintances, I had a high time (2,500 TT) friend go to Colgan for the quick upgrade, a mid timer (1,200TT with a bunch of turbine) go to AWAC because of the contract and a specific base, a few lower time guys who waited to hit 1,000 hours to apply to SKW and Republic, and then a whole slew of guys who got whatever the magic number was back in 2006/2007 and went to PSA, ASA, XJT or whomever.

Fast forward to now, the Colgan guy has 1500 PIC turbine under his belt and is in a pool with a great airline but does a 2 leg commute for four days of locals, the Republic guy is a line holding captain on the ERJ, one SKW guy passed upgrade and is now sitting bitter out in SLC while another guy junior to him is a Brasilia reserve CA in FAT (also slightly annoyed albeit thankful). My ASA buddies went there after it was bought by SKW and some complain about being the red-headed step child while others are just glad they aren't getting the Comair treatment. The PSA guy got awarded upgrade but his class got canceled and of the XJT guys, one was furloughed after 2 years of longevity and the other is hanging on to his line with no sight of upward movement.

Point being that "regional envy" is quite common but usually we have no one but ourselves to blame for our situation. If I had interviewed with Republic instead of SKW, I'd be an ERJ CA instead of an FO. Sometimes I think that would have been a better move, but when I was regional shopping I decided that living in California was more important to me; it may bite me in the butt when 2012 comes around and I'm just getting my 1000 PIC while other buddies have better resumes. Conversely I could have gone to XJT and be on reserve (at the time they were just as viable as SKW, but I had heard their relationship with CAL has been souring since the split).

I'm not saying regional envy is a bad or unnatural thing, but the next time you see a guy at XYZ airline and feel that little twinge of frustration, remember to take a little bit of responsibility for your situation after you secretly make fun of his haircut :p

Safe flying guys and girls. 2012 can't come soon enough.

You sir have just hit it on the head. Good read without a doubt and I recommend it to everyone whether they have made the leap or are waiting for hiring to pick up.

I'm confused. You state the different paths all your friends took that were determined by the fates of the various regionals, then go on to state to take personal responsibility.

A friend of mine got hired on to CHQ 1 month before I got hired on to TSA. He had a few hundred hours more than me and met their minimums at the time, and I was just a tad short struggling in a slowly decaying flight school.

Fast forward, I am on the street and he's probably a fairly comfortable FO still.

You roll the dice and take what you get whether you like it or not.

Looking back, had I known what I know now, I would have "tried" to instruct for another couple months, then put in my stuff with CHQ or RP. That would have worked out better. We can monday morning QB all day, but the cards do not fall the way they fall until after they've fallen.

Part of my plan was potentially to work for TSA, get 500 hours or so turbine, then jump to another carrier. Then, NO ONE was hiring. I've been able to log over 1,000 before the end, so maybe I'll get my wish - just further along in life than I thought.

Oh well. :(

We will all know if we made the right choice on the day we turn 65(or maybe it will be 95 by then!)

Definitely some good thoughts. Hindsight is allllways 20/20.

If you chose to go work for an airline that relies on bidding their work then you get what you deserve.... those airlines exist solely to allow the whipsawing of the wholly owned ones.

You can never go wrong in going to a bottom feeding airline. Unless it's Mesa, although they got theirs the last 5 years.

So no one should go to work for a contract carrier? But wholly-owneds exist only to take flying from mainline, right? And for a lot less money at that...

Good post. My question is this: A 25 yr-old-ish new professional pilot would now be looking forward to a 40 year career or so. Just how important is QOL for the first five to seven years?

Thats the big question. How do you know that QOL you have for the first 5-7 years wont be the same as 7-15yrs? If you told me I only had to work at Mesa for 5 years, then I would be guaranteed to be put on any mainline carrier seniority list I would love that. If you told me I had to work at Mesa for 15 years then get put at the mainline carrier then I wouldnt be so sure...

Remember there will be two to three furloughs in there too that will have you go back to the bottom of the next sweat shop. And forty years later you are still trying to make mainline and then life ends! How about that?

There are no guarantees; not in this career or in any others.

How important should the first five to seven year's QOL concerns be for the aspiring young airline pilot looking for their first 121 job?

I agree, and think QOL should be a huge factor and very important in deciding where to go. We have all put a lot of training into this career, and shouldnt put up with anything less in hopes of a future payoff. Go somewhere you can have a good QOL, you might be there longer than you think.

I dont think your estimates in regards to xjt are true. The furloughed pilots all had just under or slightly over 1 yr of seniority not the 2 you stated. If you were hired in late 2006 you would be a lineholder in ewr but on reserve in cle or iah.

It is all a gamble. Knowing what i know now this whole regional game is the biggest circle jerk i have ever seen. As soon as one airline gets a good contract and work rules they are underbid. As soon as the underbidders get a good contract then THEY are underbid. Which regional is better? they all suck and our career is circling the drain until the flying is brought back to mainline. Regionals getting bigger might mean great things for your upgrade or your paycheck now but it is ruining your long term career.

Haven't you people read "Fate Is the Hunter"???

Ernie Gann has gone over this TIME and TIME and TIME again...

(and get off my lawn, too)

Who is John Gualt?

Back in 02 I interviewed at ACA (Atlantic Coast Airlines) which was one of the hottest things that year. Many were getting hired into the CRJ. They also had the J41 and the DOjet. I also interviewed at colgan. Colgan hired me right away but I passed on the first colgan class date waiting to hear from ACA. I got the thanks but no thanks letter 3 weeks later. I took the next class at colgan. At that moment in time ACA was clearly the better airline. High stock price, UAL feeder which at the time was better than USAir feeder. Jets.

ACA did me an incredible favor by shooting me down. They were furloughing within months of my interview and were completely gone a few years later.

If I had to do it again i'd go the military route...

nice try its Gault:)

that sounds like comair lol

Unless you're over 29, you still can.

This career will be over in 30 years. If you think you will be in a cockpit making $$$$ and working 12 days a month by then, sorry but it is a pipe dream.


Artificial Inteligence will happen. You can deny it as much as you want.

And 50-60 years ago, people thought we'd all be in flying cars by now.

We'll see military UAVs using AI for YEARS before it gets anywhere close to an airplane hauling around passengers. Think about it - even subways & trains (which are far less riskier than airplanes) have an operator. And you think in 2039 airplanes will be flying around without anybody up front?

I understand how the industry can make people pessimistic...but the rumors of aviation's demise have been (and are being) greatly exaggerated...

If I had taken the class date offer from Mesa instead of TSA, I would just be getting furloughed now instead of last July. Since Lakes is no longer hiring, I'd have no flying prospects and would be out on the street. So maybe it's good that I chose TSA, maybe not. At the same time, if Lakes didn't hire me, I would probably be in class for ATC and have a better outlook. It's all a roll of the dice and you can't predict how this stuff is going to go. I wish mostly all of you the best of luck, but I disagree that you should blame yourself for the way your career has gone...unless you've failed checkrides or busted regs or something.

The only thing that will kill this career is a human teleporter

Ummmmmmm.......sure. :rolleyes:

Yeah, what he said! :)

The next big push will be aircraft managed by a single on-board pilot with a remote ground-based pilot backing up several flights at the same time.

The best software reliability is around 99%, so a completely automated plane would error about 1% of the time. Which is several million dead passengers a year. Automation......not going to happen in our lifetimes. Remote controlled maybe, but that is far more expensive to maintain than pilots.

Blah, blah, blah. . . Aside from the military, how do we best prepare and increase our qualifications for a job with the majors? We eagerly await your words of wisdom Yoda.

I call bull on this. This is far too complicated a study to assign such a blanket % to it. I'd guess that reliability of a computer system (especially redundant systems) would far surpass a human's ability in terms of error detection and correction. The number of systems we're operating through as things exist right now would mean that to apply your statement, we'd lose millions of passengers a year. Just because two pilots are sitting in the cockpit of the Airbus doesn't mean the computers aren't doing the actual work - that is a fly by wire airplane.

If you've flown an ERJ, you'd be familiar with all the electrical system safeties built in that automatically follow the logic outside of the pilot's control when problems arise. What are pilots trained to do? We wait for messages to appear on the EICAS and pull out a book and push the buttons that it says to push when it says to push them. Since the computer is already detecting the problem and posting the message, why not have it follow the steps in the QRH in a matter of seconds?

I don't think pilots are going anywhere anytime soon, but do not think for a second that the trend isn't anything other than removing more and more from our control.

Yup... back in 2004 I could have gone to Mesa (one friend is a captain at Netjets, the other an FO at Continental) I could have gone to Chatauqua (2 are now at Delta one is a lineholding 170 captain there) I could have gone to Comair, (all are either furloughed or will be by January) Or Mesaba where I have been laid off once and will be likely downgraded to FO by February, and possibly even again getting to know MARVIN (unemployed) by the end of 2011. Heck even just looking at taking recall here in 2007, everyone went different directions... Many since wished they came back here, now saying well maybe not so much....

Re: roll of the dice...
 

You're both wrong. It's Galt.:D

Actually, it's Galt.


Are you assuming that every error will result in a fatal accident? Certainly not every human pilot error results in such a dismal outcome.....

OK, I'll bite on this one. My advice for the guys who are sitting around waiting for hiring to begin again is this: go to the regional (or Part 91 job, or whatever) that has a culture in which you would be happy if it wound up being the last place you ever go. You cannot assume that you will make a lot of money over your career; you can't assume that you will get an upgrade at a given time; you can't assume that you will hold a line; you can't assume that the job you get will exist in two years. All of these things are largely subject to factors so beyond your control that they do not merit your attention. NOBODY has these answers for you.

What you CAN do is set yourself up to enjoy your time in whatever seat you attain. The odds that you will be a low-paid reservist for years in a hiring freeze are equal nearly everywhere; what seems to vary most from place to place is the overall attitude of the pilots working there toward their job. Find the place(s) that correspond to the culture in which you will be happy, and interview there at the first opportunity. Look for people who are proud of their company, and ask them about why that is. You will narrow the field quickly if you do this.

For what it's worth, I chose XJT in 2006, and although luck (Fate) has undoubtedly had a great deal to do with my high level of job satisfaction, I chose this place because the people working here seemed genuinely satisfied with things as they actually were, not as they were going to be. So far, that choice is proving to have been a good one.