What will happen to Lynx???
 

Just as the title suggests....what will happen to them when all this hoopla at Republic is complete??? Any guesses??? facts??? informed opinions???:confused:

My guess is that RAH is presently shopping around the Q400s to other airlines for future flying. I can see them flying for US Airways out of PHL or DCA someday. It may sound far fetched, but in this biz, nobody knows.

BB said in a town hall meeting a few months ago that IF we keep the Q400s around they will go on the CHQ certificate and the lynx certificate will go away, just like the YX certificate.

Guess: more Q400s, probably for CAL

Just curious... would you fire all the Lynx pilots or would you integrate them into your master seniority list?

Unable USairways... the number of large regional jets (including your Q400 based on seats) would just add to the number that are already in violation of their contract.... I would only assume the CAL would make more sense and screw the XJET guys even farther... However maybe you all would get a pay rate that would be better then those of Colgan and help raise the bar there...

I doubt any mainline airline would pay republic to fly Q400's for them, directly contributing to a competitor, when Colgan can do it too and probably for the same or lower cost.

Obviously you are not up to spped with things since CAL is not renewing the CHQ contract. 2012 CHQ is done with CAL.

If I had to take a guess, it's that the Qs are going away. We were getting A/C #12 in Jan '10 and had a couple of options remaining and all that was cancelled a few weeks ago. BB said he would either grow the fleet or get rid of it. They say they are doing a fleet analysis right now and thats why they cancelled all the remaining Qs, but it kinda looks like the writing may be on the wall for the Q. I'm guessing the Qs get phased out, we get a semi-crappy integration or it goes to arbitration and when all is said and done we can bid whatever A/C and base our new seniority can hold. I'm hoping this won't happen as it's not what myself and pretty much everyone else here signed on for. My .02.

If Bedford gave up Frontier's highly profitable ski markets like Aspen, which the Q excels in and I'm not sure the E-Jet would handle very well (if at all)...he'd be a damn fool.

Has this been formally announced? Three years out is a long time when talking about regional contracts.

All Lynx pilots will be integrated, just as all Frontier, Midwest, and Mokulele pilots will be.

If (and I stress the if) Bedford decides to get rid of the Q400 fleet, then Lynx pilots may end up on a temporary furlough until the integration is complete. Again, that is only if Q400's go away before the integration is complete. That is the same thing that is currently happening with Midwest pilots. Lynx and Midwest pilots cannot fly a RAH aircraft (other than the one they were flying at the time of acquisition) until they are on the RAH master seniority list.

As for the other questions, I think Bedford is leaning towards not keeping the dash 8 fleet. I would expect him to have announced a delay in deliveries if he intended to keep the fleet growing, not a cancellation of options/deliveries.

I think the Lynx Dash 8's serve a very useful purpose, and help distinguish the route network of Lynx/Frontier from all the other carriers, including Southwest. Bedford would undermine the appeal of Frontier if he got rid of the Q400. I hope that, at a minimum, Lynx keeps all its current aircraft and continues to fly into a number of smaller, prop friendly markets throughout the Rockies and western plains.

Small fleets don't make sense, though. Operating a fleet of only 12 aircraft with no parts commonality with the rest of the RAH fleet is very costly. I think Bedford would be wise to expand the Q400 fleet, but that requires capital, which he spent a lot of in the acquisition process. RAH may not be able to continue to Dash operations along with expanding the E190 fleet, and possibly the Airbus fleet. If Lynx is shut down or sold off, I do think it will be one of the great business blunders of our industry in modern times. One thing RAH has going for it right now is a comprehensive fleet of domestic aircraft, with no outsourcing (ironic, yes). We all long for the days of all flying done in house on one seniority list, and right now RAH has the chance to do that. To squander that advantage would be foolish, but then again, no one ever claimed that CEO's really know what they're doing.

I hope to see you Lynx guys on the list here soon, with the option to keep flying the Dash if you so choose.

Agreed....

There is a bit more than this... #12 was cancelled, yes. The financing was agreed upon while under Chap 11 and the terms were LOUSY! That is why the 11th airplane took an extra month while they tried to get better terms from the financer. The price was higher than the present market price because the options were from over three years ago and now the market is soft. They also have some expensive options we don't use (HGS and MTOP). By my count there was only one option left of the remaining 10 to exercise anyway... as they had been expiring monthly throughout the bankruptcy. Doesn't mean BB will keep them around or lynx for that matter... but we are a present Q customer and we can get a more appropriate Q order sooner than advertised. The Q serves specific destinations very well and if they can pimp us out... they will.

We work for an airline that escaped bankruptcy during a recession. I too was offered a lot 2 and half years ago but my expectations changed with bankruptcy and $147 dollar oil. I am glad to have a job and will work with ALL the certificates to make this a better place to work.

Menke was just announced as the Executive Vice President and Chief Marketing Officer of Republic Airways Holdings. Doesn't mean he makes all the decisions but he is very up front about the Q's cost savings VS the 170s. Menke also knows people pay the same to go from ASE-DEN as they do from DEN-LGA so he will be a big cheerleader for keeping Lynx around.

Then again, its and airline and we might get canned in the morning. Who knows!

Don't forget MTOP got an extra 500 to 1000 lbs takeoff weight out of DRO on a 5600' long runway! Very helpful. Also, options Colgan doesnt have are dual FMS and RDC Np.


But, yes...I think Menke, as VP, will be a HUGE advocate for the Q...you can't assume otherwise considering he saw the value of the Q and launched an all Q operation.

But...then again...if I had any real brains, I wouldn't be a pilot...

I won't argue the fact MTOP could be a useful option... but I have never had to use it in all my ASE and DRO turns over the past 2 years. Colorado airports do tend to wait for the hottest days of the summer to do runway construction don't they.

Potter (not harry) actually launched Lynx... but Menke is a numbers guy who knows its numbers!

Brains? yup... you and me in the same boat there brother!

Very well put guys, lets hope he fights for us.

And think about the markets we dont serve that united is doing, and the markets we could expand into. More durango, GJT, EGE, Missoula, Jackson Hole (not seasonal), hayden, etc. If he got rid of the Q united would be doing those routes with 0 competition in denver, as long as republic didnt put a jet on it, which would be stupid and a waste of money. Plus the 170 wont be able to do aspen efficiently which has already been stated.

Originally Posted by tr disagree http://www.airlinepilotforums.com/im...s/viewpost.gif
Obviously you are not up to spped with things since CAL is not renewing the CHQ contract. 2012 CHQ is done with CAL.

Yeah dude, alot can happen in three years.

I don't think they could use a 170 in ASE at all. It won't climb like the 700. Be an interesting balked landing procedure! Another destination you didn't mention was COS. We do 6 a day and most are full. A 170 could do it... but not burning 750LBS.

Even though Lynx has shown a profit with 10 planes... 11 are said to not be profitable. We will know more when the long term "fleet plan" is announced.

RP had plans for Q400's
 

The speculation that RP will dump the Q400's surprises me.

During the CH 11 process RP was required to file several briefings on its business plan for operating FAH. One document highlighted the plans for Lynx. Now I'm not concrete on this but it went as follows...

Increase Lynx fleet to 12 Q400's
Obtain an additional 10 Q400's for further third-party operations (ambiguous)

Now of course just because RP wrote this as part of its "proposed" business plan should it acquire Holdings - doesn't mean it has to actually follow through. But it proves that just a few months ago the plan at RP was to build the Q400's and fly more for some other unnamed entity.

The other surprise about the speculation...the Q400 was acquired directly for F9's unique route map to feed the DEN hub. It's clearly worked. Look at the last 12 months of numbers. Menke even said that Lynx was profitable (as a stand alone) during certain months. And on the months it's not profitable by itself Lynx is still providing positive traffic numbers to F9's mainline at DEN.

The speculation is just coming from the cancelled options, i know we have cleared up why republic did what they did, its just some peoples brains just dont stop turning and barfing out rumors. Some people love the negativity involved in whats happening. You make great points!

ASE-DEN weight restrictions
 

I started a new thread.