Retirements in the regionals
 

Just wondering if any regional has a large amount of retirements in the next 5 years?

Piedmont doesn't! Our first retirement isn't scheduled until 1/23/2013 and that is our Chief Pilot. So really that doesn't count because he doesn't fly.

Piedmont is scheduled to have 7 in 2013, 3 in 2014, 5 in 2015, 10 in 2016, 12 in 2017, and 9 in 2018.

This airline has a lot of older pilots that are not very old. (Mid to late 50's)

Our number 1 guy who has been here 32 years will not retire until September 2017 making 40 years with a regional. :rolleyes:

Granted this is if these guys can make it that long. I am sure the decades of flying with "inexperienced" pilots, doing 4-6 legs a day, eating airport food and or Piedmont crew meals, and complaining about their low pay will probably cause them to retire early. Lets hope so!

According to the Airline Profiles part of this site, their pay scale ends at year 25. For those going beyond that, does the pay still go up a dollar an hour every four years like it does from year 23 to year 24?

I thought it stayed the same once you hit 25 years but I had a captain tell me it goes up $0.50 or something every year past "the max." Not sure if this was true but that is what he told me.

The large number retirements are all going to be at the majors for the next 5 years. While there are still some retirements from "lifers" at the regionals, it will many years until the retirement numbers grow at regionals. If I had to pick one regional that will have the most retirements in the next 10 years or so, it's Eagle.

This thread peaked my curiosity so I checked out our seniority list at Comair. We have one retirement in 2012, in 2013 it looks like about a dozen give or take. After that it flattens out. But we will be long gone as a company by then so it doesn't matter.

Comair is like piedmont. Alot of guys very senior that are only in their 50's.

Since regionals did not exist in their current form 20 years ago and commuters were much smaller, there are only a handful of old commuter pilots anywhere near retirement.

It should pick up a bit in 20 years or so, but I would guess the average age is around thirty...the big surge will be in the 2040's. If airplanes haven't been banned by the global warmers by then.

Thats a long time to wait for the current crop of CFI's. :eek:

I was curious too, so I crunched the numbers at Eagle for the next 15 years (all things remaining the same) from our latest unofficial seniority list:

Year Retirements
2012 1
2013 24
2014 22
2015 31
2016 27
2017 29
2018 29
2019 45
2020 47
2021 61
2022 66
2023 68
2024 60
2025 86

Total of 596 over the next 15 years if all wait until age 65.

I see alot of 135's being retired.

......................

Shouldn't you be asking about retirements at Majors? I don't think we have to worry about regional retirements just yet. When age 65 hits there will be mass retirements, we should all see movement 5 to 10 years from now.

At Skywest, less than 20 in the next five years. Less than 70 in the next 10 years. 2800 pilots on the seniority list.

There won't be a massive amount of retirements for at least 20 years. Howver, I'd expect most won't stay until age 65.

very true on the retirement schedule, i was disappointed myself, but they sure do look like they shud be closer to 65 rather than in their mid 50's

Well first off, I didn't include all of our captains. We have a ton of captains hired in the 80's...which puts them at around 45-55 age wise. In fact, if you really want, I can post how many people we do have that are between the age of 50-55.

Piedmont

5 CA's are 59
10 CA's are 58
12 CA's are 57
9 CA's are 56
14 CA's are 55
14 CA's are 54
7 CA's are 53
11 CA's are 52
13 CA's are 51
5 CA's are 50

So that is 100 captains in their 50's

Yea my whole reasoning for this thread was to find out how many people will move on to the majors when hiring starts back, with the lack of retirements. Of course there is no certainty, but for the junior guys in the regionals, it looks pretty good for the next 5-7 years. If this house bill is passed changing duty regs, it is going to be really interesting to see what happens.

Our new reality . . .
 

I hope you are right, I really do. None of us got into this business thinking that the industry would be what it is today.

That being said, I think the large majority of regional airline pilots will never move on beyond working for a "regional" airline to a mainline position. Therefore regional retirement numbers should be really important to somebody who wants to fly airplanes for a living and does not already have a job at a legacy, or major who flies Boeing or Airbus products. (Although contrary to what a Frontier pilot will tell you, Airbus is about to become the most recent addition to the "regional" fleet of aircraft. ;) )

Why do I say this? Because my prediction is that mainline, legacy carriers will continue to outsource their domestic flying to affiliate "regional" airlines. As retirements hit the legacy carriers, they will simply shrink their seniority lists and focus their business on (1) international routes and (2) ownership of gate space at large airports so as to effectively "sublet" that space to their "regional" affiliates.

So if a regional pilot wants to move up in this career, they have to ask themselves "What can I do to make my self part of that 10-15% that will move on?" If anyone can't answer that question, plan on a "regional" retirement as a new reality. No A Plan, no B Plan, no pension, little to no 401(k) match - just the sweat off your back and what you can save over the next 25 to 30 years. Good luck.

Just my opinion, but as I see it, this is the new world order for pilots. Like it, or leave it. There is always something else to do for a living.

Looks like a lot of retirements in the regionals in about 20 years from now. Just hang in there CFIs. You too can make $17,000/year by 2029. Just hang in there and keep on believing! That shortage you've read about it almost here!!

YES!!!!!!!!!!!!

Too bad most of the regionals out there today probably won't even exist, at least in their current form, in 20 years. Probably not even in 10.

Im pretty sure Eagle has the oldest regional carrier pilot group(about 2800 total), or at least the most theoretical movement from retirements. Our avg CA is 48 yrs old and has 16yrs seniority. The avg FO is 35 yrs old with 4yrs seniority.