Good Read
 

I won't believe it until I see it, but this article is worth reading. Training: jobs for tomorrow

Europe is and has always been more proactive about things they need to be proactive about. In the states, we will continue to operate behind the rest of the world....I see no change in the way US carriers approach their business / staffing problems.

In the minds of many, Europe remains the center of the universe.

What staffing problems? Last time I checked, this industry has about 4,000 extremely highly experienced furloughed pilots, with multiple type ratings in A-320s, 737s, and others. That's enough to start an airline the size of CAL, UAL, or US Airways.

Read the whole story... RyanAir has never experienced a shortage of pilots in their 23 year history. Period. How many similar articles have predicted pilot shortages in the past 23 years?

There is a huge glut of experienced pilots on the street today (as stated in the article) but the troubling thing is the future prospective pilots are decreasing. The military isnt pumping out trained pilots like they did in the post WWII and Vietnam era. Military flying has contracted (even though there have been wars) and there isnt a demand for as many military pilots.)

The payoff for a career as an airline pilot isnt as lucrative as it once was, while the training costs have skyrocketed...

True, the military isn't pumping out pilots like it used to. But I'm willing to bet that the explosive growth of "pilot mills" like Embry-Riddle, Gulfstream and the like has more than compensated for the lack of military guys.

I have been hearing about this pending pilot shortage since starting 13 years ago. It has not even come close to becoming reality (except for a non-sustainable short stint 2006 to 2007). So, like I said above I will not believe it until I see it.

However, this article is worth reading for career pilots. It might just ultimately be more propaganda from the puppy mills. But, this website usually does a very good job with content.

I can't think of any thing better for our profession than an actual shortage of qualified pilots.:rolleyes: Unfortunately I doubt this will happen as the requirements to be considered "qualified" will simply be adjusted as required to fill the two front seats at the cheapest cost.:eek:

Very well said.

Enrollment numbers at Riddle have been wayyy down. As I am sure some CFIs can chime in that business in the smaller flight schools is slow as well. Im not saying we will have a pilot shortage tomorrow, but there are less newbie pilots than in previous years.

Agreed, sadly I think single pilot airlines will be the industry's answer to pilot shortage (if/when we really do see a shortage). The article shows how FlyBe has taken a more organic approach to creating highly trained employees, but would that catch on here in the states?

I agree that there will never be a pilot shortage, as several other people were mentioning RyanAir has never has a shortage in 20 some years. I thought that article was going to be ab-initio training which has sometimes been the method of choice for Europe but it looked to me that RyanAir was just bragging about their pay for training scheme and how much money they could get "cadets" to pay for academy training and to buy their type ratings... if this is the way "Europe is ahead of America" I hope we never catch up.

I don't see on that sheet where numbers are lagging. To me it looks like enrollment is up 1.5%. Can you please update us with some figures or PM them to me. I'm interested to know whats in the pipeline since I read conflicting information on various sites.
Thanks

Sure, I reviewed all the past ERAU enrollment stat sheets and posted below the number of new students for each academic year in the Aeronautical Science Program. The figure includes Prescott and Daytona campuses, Spring and Fall semesters of each year.

92-93: 578
93-94: 692
94-95: 696
95-96: 710
96-97: 743
97-98: 968
98-99: 866
99-00: 927
00-01: 935
01-02: 929
02-03: 815
03-04: 712
04-05: 526
05-06: 509
06-07: 571
07-08: 503
08-(spring 09 isnt published yet): 515

Looks like there was a steady increase of Aero Sci students up to 01-02 and then a rapid decrease until leveling off at around 500-600 new students per year (compared to 900-1000 in "good times").

Judging by this, the peak of 01-02 would have graduated 05-06 (which is the same time period for the ultra low time hiring practices at airlines). Going forward there wont be a huge glut of pilots coming out of school like there was pre-2006.

I know this isnt a complete analysis of all possible new pilots, but ERAU is a good indicator of the trends in the industry.

Oh yeah they are waaay down at small flight schools too. I'm still racking up a fair number of hours instructing though. Should get my ATP mins this year. Then I'll make it big time, I'm already planning on getting a gold plated toilet :p

Of my friends who are pilots, not one is recommending aviation as a career for their children. I know several pilots who have taken voluntary LOA's to go back to school for a career change.

The only one's still pushing the "dream" are souless organizations like Embry Riddle and the RAA.

Even Riddle has been pulling away from the Airline pilot career path. They have been promoting their engineering programs as their flagship degree program instead of the flying degrees. There was a push a few years ago to even drop Aeronautical from the ERAU name.

the real question is whether or not the United States will ever again have airlines with FA's like the ones about a quarter of the way down the article. you know instead of hiring mustache Mable or 200-pound Agnes.

http://stupidcelebrities.net/2008/11...ls-of-ryanair/

Exactly.

Amazing that Ryanair could field 12 hotties like that for a poster. ASA would have trouble coming up with a 3 month calendar, and that's including every FA that ever worked for the airline. (And I'm including as one of those months the FA that was a playboy fresh face!)

This propaganda was fed to us in college in 1986. I am still waiting for the "shortage" to show up.

Alas, where are these golden thrones? how much total time will you have before getting 500 cross country? via instructing, ill be at 1500tt long before getting the 500cc

Ryanair does a lot of hiring in eastern Europe - like, a LOT. Take that for what you will.

EDIT: Yup, note the names further on in the article - "Miss June's Magda", "Miss October's Jaroslava", etc.

December 13, 2007 "W" signed the age 65 rule into effect. Just after that the economy took a nose dive. These 2 things have made for an over supply of airline pilots and pilots in general. However, these pilots will not be able to fill the void that will be headed our way. Flight schools are shutting their doors everyday. Stack on top of that, HR 3371 U.S. House Passes Airline Safety Bill Aviation Buzz I think in the next 4 years, IF the airlines run at the same capacity many airline hiring departments could have a proverbial $hit storm on their hands...

Did you read the whole article? It was talking about ab-initio and the MPL (multi-crew pilots license) being the norm for the future of their airlines. 0 time to the line.....I have a feeling that this could be a very likely scenario for U.S. airlines, sooner than we think.

There is always good argument on both sides about an upcoming, prolonged, shortage. I have been hearing these arguments since I started the whole thing in the late 90s. But, there has always been something stopping or preventing it. Twice now, a potential long-term shortage has started but then stopped from other factors.

The arguments for a future shortage is sound. However, have you taken into account new external factors that are yet unforeseen? I would very much like to see the shortage a reality. However, the realist/pessimist in me says something will get in the way again.

Don't discount airline managers. Though we may not agree with the greed/self-serving underlying most of their decisions it does not make them stupid. The airline lobby might yet find another 'solution' to a shortage. Or perhaps as the economy returns and airlines start to recover oil will shoot up again. And then airlines might just consolidate capacity into larger but fewer airplanes.

Also, don't forget about TSA's fervent efforts to chase our passengers away. And the effort of the government to get high speed rail going. I don't think there will be a return of demand for air travel. A recovery yes, but not a return.

Very good point, we have no idea what is coming down the pipe for us. Like I said in my previous post "IF" the airlines are able to run at the same capacity I could see things going the way of those speculators some 13 years ago. You are right about the fact that it is hard to be optimistic about the airlines moving in a good direction. But, Hopefully "IF" the the airlines do face a shortage, they will be forced to pay pilots what they deserve and treat them like professionals.

And yes, I do realize that starting a sentence with "hopefully the airlines will" and ending it with something optimistic about the well being of the pilot community, I am setting myself up for disappoint..... But! I'm throwing it out there anyway.