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-   -   2014-2015 outlook (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/regional/58929-2014-2015-outlook.html)

Bartok 04-24-2011 09:13 AM

You should just ask what the outlook is for tomorrow, I can't answer that one either.

snippercr 04-24-2011 09:31 AM


Originally Posted by WIPilot (Post 984851)
what are you talking about? they are dropping already.


Now after the 1500 hour rule comes into play that may be a different story.

I know. If I had a dime for each time people said "The days of sub 1500 hour hiring days are over"... I could maybe afford a Slurpee. Anyways, the point is Colgan is at 600/50, Eagle is at 800/100 and Lakes is at 750/50. All 121 operators. Yes there are a few with ATP reqs already but they are just hiring a few pilots (~50) while the ones who need to hire more, have the lower mins. Supply/demand. Demand is high (or increasing, your choice) and supply is actually dwindling, not just people with commercial pilots certs but as the saying goes "Supply of people willing to work for 20k/year"

Al Czervik 04-24-2011 09:44 AM


Originally Posted by SkyHigh (Post 984827)
Most likely the regionals will continue to grow and to pay poor wages.

Skyhigh

You're all doom and gloom. Things could always be worse.

DashDriverYV 04-24-2011 10:12 AM


Originally Posted by rickair7777 (Post 984830)
Retirements dictate that there will be upward movement, but that all depends on oil. If it keeps going up, airlines will park airplanes without replacing them. If it gets really bad, tanking the economy again the majors will re-enter bankruptcy and start terminating regional contracts, which will put regionals out of business since there doesn't appear to be much new flying to be had in that sector. Going forward you either keep what you have, or die.

If you can rationalize a way to ignore the whole oil issue, the hiring picture looks good.

oil will tank the economy if history has anything to do with it.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/economy/images/figure_4.gif

TonyWilliams 04-24-2011 10:16 AM

I honestly don't think any ATP/1500 rule is worth the paper it's written on.

I expect any number of the following to continue bid-nes as usual:

1. College training exemptions, lead by ERAU, UND, et al.

2. Military trained exemptions

3. Airline sponsored training exemptions

4. Ab initio program exemptions

5. Multi-Pilot License exemptions

6. "Emergency" exemptions when airlines scream they have to cancel flights since they can't find any more kids who are qualified and want to work for $20k.

DeadStick 04-24-2011 11:06 AM


Originally Posted by TonyWilliams (Post 984888)
6. "Emergency" exemptions when airlines scream they have to cancel flights since they can't find any more kids who are qualified and want to work for $20k.

When the nation's infrastructure is compromised, Congress can and will act with breathtaking speed. In my opinion, it's a near certainty that age 65 will be extended, which is probably still better than the alternative solution, the Multi-Crew Pilot License (MPL).

cleared2land 04-24-2011 12:24 PM


Originally Posted by TonyWilliams (Post 984888)
I honestly don't think any ATP/1500 rule is worth the paper it's written on.

I expect any number of the following to continue bid-nes as usual:

1. College training exemptions, lead by ERAU, UND, et al.

2. Military trained exemptions

3. Airline sponsored training exemptions

4. Ab initio program exemptions

5. Multi-Pilot License exemptions

6. "Emergency" exemptions when airlines scream they have to cancel flights since they can't find any more kids who are qualified and want to work for $20k.

http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2011/04/20/355820/wats-2011-delta-ponders-pilot-sources.html

bcrosier 04-24-2011 01:12 PM


Originally Posted by DeadStick (Post 984903)
When the nation's infrastructure is compromised, Congress can and will act with breathtaking speed. In my opinion, it's a near certainty that age 65 will be extended, which is probably still better than the alternative solution, the Multi-Crew Pilot License (MPL).

I think that's a reasonable solution - provided there is a requirement that anyone over 65 cannot be part of a crew on an aircraft certificated for more than, oh let's say, 50 seats.

It seems that this would satisfy nearly everyone. Enhances the pilot supply pool, provides upward movement for those currently trapped at regionals, gives the seasoned citizen crowd a chance to work longer.

slumav505 04-24-2011 01:15 PM


Originally Posted by DeadStick (Post 984903)
When the nation's infrastructure is compromised, Congress can and will act with breathtaking speed. In my opinion, it's a near certainty that age 65 will be extended, which is probably still better than the alternative solution, the Multi-Crew Pilot License (MPL).


I haven't heard even as much as a peep regarding this. Seems like 65 is about it. There comes a point at which skills diminish and reaction time slows. Sorry to say but until I see congress discussing this on the hill seriously, no truth to it.

DeadStick 04-24-2011 01:33 PM


Originally Posted by slumav505 (Post 984951)
I haven't heard even as much as a peep regarding this. Seems like 65 is about it. There comes a point at which skills diminish and reaction time slows. Sorry to say but until I see congress discussing this on the hill seriously, no truth to it.

I've only heard rumors myself, but here's some food for though:

http://www.airlinepilotforums.com/av...-age-70-a.html

Age 70 for international pilots? - PPRuNe Forums


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