Airline Pilot Central Forums - No furloughs at Pinnacle?

I posted this a few weeks ago in another forum, it will be tough to not have furloughs. I don't think we could get a sustained average of 62 pilots departing a month for an extended period of time.

Quote:

If it helps anybody I ran some rough numbers yesterday in terms of a possible number for furloughs. Sorry for the length. Here they are.

First:
The staffing numbers are as follows
900 (57 planes) - 748 pilots = 13.12 pilots/plane
200 (143 planes) - 1542 pilots = 10.78 pilots/plane
Q400 (31 planes) - 373 pilots = 12.03 pilots/plane
SF3 (27 planes) - 218 pilots = 8.07 pilots/plane
Company Average of 11.00 pilots/plane (5.5 crews/plane)

Second:
I averaged the reduction of each each fleet by taking total aircraft/total months in reduction schedule, so my reduction numbers are a rough average.

Saab:
Roughly 33% reduction in May - July. 27 total planes = 9 planes/month.
At 218 pilots, to get to company average of 11.00 pilots/plane the pilots required are:
May - 198 (20 less)
June - 99 (99 less)
Jul 31- 0 (99 less)

Q400:
Roughly 14% reduction per month from May-November. 31 total planes = 4 planes/month, 7 in November.
At 373 pilots, to get to a company average of 11.00 pilots/plane the pilots required are:
May - 297 (76 less)
Jun - 253 (44 less)
Jul - 209 (44 less)
Aug - 165 (44 less)
Sep - 121 (44 less)
Oct - 77 (44 less)
Nov 30 - 0 (77 less)

900:
Roughly 20% reduction per month from January-May. 16 total planes = 3 planes/month, 4 in May.
At 748 pilots, to get to a company average of 11.00 pilots/plane the pilots required are:
Jan - 594 (154 less)
Feb - 561 (33 less)
Mar - 528 (33 less)
Apr - 495 (33 less)
May - 451 (44 less)

APPROXIMATE Total Pilot reductions per month:
May - 96
Jun - 143
Jul - 143
Aug - 44
Sep - 44
Oct - 44
Nov - 77
Dec - No fleet reductions (Merry Christmas!)
Jan - 154
Feb - 33
Mar - 33
Apr - 33
May -33
Total - 888 pilots

200:
The 200 is short of 11.00 pilots/plane so it should absorb a small amount of pilots. 143 planes x 11.00 = 1573 pilots.
Currently 1573-1542 (current pilot total) = 31 pilots absorbed.

Third:
Currently (according to the last 3 SLIs) we are losing 20.55 pilots per month in attrition. I came to this:

91 seniority numbers less (2972-2881)
+37pilots added in new hires
128 Total pilots then then left

Over a 189 day period between all three SLI's leaves us with 20.55.

So in summary:
888 pilots
-31 pilots absorbed into the 200
=857 pilots (not taking into account attrition)

Taking into account attrition, you can roughly subtract 20-21 furloughs/month for attrition, but for a total of 14 months, the company will lose 288 pilots to attrition. (14 x 20.55)

857 pilots
-288 attrition
Approximately 569 furloughs.

If hypothetically attrition spikes (which I'm sure it will) here are the quick new numbers.

25 pilots/month - 507 furloughs
30 pilots/month - 437 furloughs
35 pilots/month - 367 furloughs
40 pilots/month - 297 furloughs
45 pilots/month - 227 furloughs
50 pilots/month - 157 furloughs
55 pilots/month - 87 furloughs
60 pilots/month - 17 furloughs
62 pilots/month - 0 furloughs.

Hope this helps people plan, remember this is not official, or meant to spread rumors. Just an approximation. If you find any numbers not right, let me know I'll run them again. Thanks and Good Luck to all!