Regional's Hiring Stats/Projection
 

I was curious what the Regional Pilot Demand looked like and so I ran some numbers. Calculating the amount of attrition each airline should see from the Mainline Industry(based on the sites Mainline model) plus the fleet shrinkage/growth the executives announce in their Annual Reports/Press Release's, we can calculate the demand for pilots over the next 8 years or so. We can even figure out based upon that number what someones seniority progression would look like up through about 50%, after that its hard to tell if the attrition will be above you in Seniority or Below.

I went ahead and took the data from the last annual reports for 2011, the companies projections for aircraft retirement and , and took the liberty to make a couple of assumptions to fill in the gaps. The model is tied to all of the regional airlines as the % of attrition to the majors due to their hiring needs is greatly affected by the overall size of the regional model(their all tied together). Subsequently the greater the regional market share an Airline has the greater slice of the attrition and vice verse.*

The Regional Attrition model is directly tied to the Mainline attrition model. Unlike the Major's where the primary source of attrition is the Retirements, the Regionals primary source of attrition is the Majors. Anyway this took a bit a coding, but its very easily updateable, so if we discover tomorrow an Airline is buying 15 700's from delta next year, I can easily put that in. So let me know if you discover any new Intel.

It does not take into account the 6-8% we will most likely see in pilot demand due to the new rest rules. Which might explain why some airlines seem a bit overstaffed and are still hiring. I think the percent seniority junior charts are very helpful for new-hires and FO's curious what the projected upgrade time is. Some of the Airlines are really in limbo right now like, Eagle and some of the Privately owned Airlines, for now until better information presents itself I just assume stagnant growth. Enjoy!


http://www.audriesaircraftanalysis.com/airline-pilot-demand/american-eagle/*
Compass | Audries Aircraft Analysis*
http://www.audriesaircraftanalysis.com/airline-pilot-demand/gojet/*
http://www.audriesaircraftanalysis.com/airline-pilot-demand/horizon/*
Mesa | Audries Aircraft Analysis*
http://www.audriesaircraftanalysis.com/airline-pilot-demand/piedmont/*
Pinnacle | Audries Aircraft Analysis*
TransStates | Audries Aircraft Analysis
http://www.audriesaircraftanalysis.com/airline-pilot-demand/skywest/*
http://www.audriesaircraftanalysis.com/airline-pilot-demand/expressjet/*
Republic | Audries Aircraft Analysis
http://www.audriesaircraftanalysis.com/airline-pilot-demand/silver/*
http://www.audriesaircraftanalysis.com/airline-pilot-demand/air-wisconsin/*
http://www.audriesaircraftanalysis.com/airline-pilot-demand/great-lakes/*
http://www.audriesaircraftanalysis.com/airline-pilot-demand/psa/*


Regional Airline Pilot Demand Comparison | Audries Aircraft Analysis

Wow awesome work

Wow! Nice work, thank you

This should be stickied and updated regularly if you can!

I would like to know with minimums at 1500 hours how are regionals doing recruiting new hires? Are they basically trying to hire all that come through the door or is it still very competitive?

You missed the flow at Compass. Assuming that Delta hires soon, and sticks by their end of the deal, the attrition should be about 75% of the list there in the next three years. That is just flows, and does not count attention to other airlines.

Compass crews stand at "attention" for other airlines??

Skywest is advertising minimums of 1000/100.

A nice chart, though a few things I thought I would throw out below. For those looking to move up, hopefully the chance comes sooner for more and not nearly the turblent skies aviation has navigated as of late.

Mesa no longer has CRJ 200 for USX or any DH8, those numbers might be flawed.

Airwis current CPA ends in 2015, no bright prospects there for renewal, plus a 200 only fleet that won't make it into the next decade.

Peidmont as stated is wholly owned, but no growth in fleet number over the last several years and no indication of any new planes coming onboard. Real question mark about the future there, IMO.

You forgot to mention which ones will be in bankruptcy. Most of the "it" regionals of 10-15 years ago don't even exist anymore. I remember when ACA, Comair and ASA were the places to get hired as a stepping stone and make good money doing it.

Wow thumbs UP! Thanks for such a great resource!

Is this business, the only certain thing is uncertainty. Looking ahead with projections is like reading the farmer's almanac. There are simply too many uncontrollable variables to consider when looking ahead. War in the Middle East, disease pandemics,financial stability, ect. make it almost impossible. As somebody already mentioned, ACA and Comair were the place to be. Today they're both nothing more than footnotes on Wikipedia.

I just interviewed at Xjt and have another interview with Trans states later this month. I had a glance at a list of people interviewing at Xjt and it seems like they are interviewing 3-5 guys a day this week, if everyone shows. I made it to the end of the day and got fingerprinted and drug tested so fingers crossed I'm hoping to hear something soon.

Congquestdz that is a great point! I completely forgot about the flow through agreements and that would be very interesting to see in this analysis. I am assuming the rolling 25% in a year will be the limit? Which would be about a 110 a year or 9 a month, till Delta rolls through the 409 pilots on that list? Thanks for the suggestion, any additional intel or insight helps.

I’ll try to get that updated soon with the FlowThrough agreement, since that will actually affect the percentage of pilots going from the rest of the Regional’s. I’ll try to keep this data updated as much as possible. I think this model should be pretty accurate, about 3-5 years out unless an airline is pulling airplanes from another airline, which could come up and happen within a year of being announced.

As fair as the AirWisconsin CPA being up 2015, I have not been able to find that anywhere, do you have a source or is it pretty reliable tribal knowledge from AirWisky?

Mesa still owns some 200’s and Dash 8’s but you are correct they aren’t flying any of them, and they should be offloaded soon, I went ahead and pulled them out of the model.

Much of what we remember as stepping stone airlines in the past were created due to growth which allowed for 2-3 year upgrades, but with Scope run to its limit and pressure being put on 50 Seaters, I think the order of the next few years will be shrinkage instead of growth. This will run upgrades on any airline not growing to about 4-5 years, and ones that are shrinking to 6-9 years, even with large pilot draw to the majors.

Attrition.... auto correct got me on that one.

Not all pilots on the list have flow rights. Those hired after Compass was sold to Trans States do not have flow. Around 380 are eligible. The flow is the lesser of 25% of the list or 20 a month.

What did they tell you about future hiring?

Bump

I would like to know with minimums at 1500 hours how are regionals doing recruiting new hires? Are they basically trying to hire all that come through the door or is it still very competitive?

Interesting, did they mention which side of the house you'll be flying on? CRJ side has had 3 classes in the past few months, and ERJ side has finished, so I'm curious which half is getting ready to spin up.

I just got placed into a pilot "puddle" for Expressjet. No class date yet, and they wouldn't say which plane. Im hoping ERJ and class in September.

They did not mention specific hiring numbers but they are hiring, seems like 1100 TT/100 ME + ATP written and clean record is what they are looking for. As far as which side of the house its still unknown but they did say a new class date should be announced in the next few days.

According to the most current list we have 316 eligable flow candidates left on the list. If DAL takes the max flows this year, that would be approximately 112 pilots from the list at a rate of 20 per month. Delta would have to hire for six months for this to happen. Unless both parties agree to an alternate agreement. So there are three years of flows at 100+ per 12 month period. You add to that, the guaranteed interview program for those of us who are not part of the flow, attrition COULD be extreme for a pilot group of only 448 (currently).

Ok, the model has been reprogrammed to take into consideration flow-through agreements. The only substantial agreement that I am aware of is Compass. I'm still waiting to see what happens to Eagle over the next couple of months to implement their agreement.

Also on the Bottom of each regional page, I've put an Average Upgrade Calculator, for anybody not wanting to to try to chart their upgrade time on the Seniority Graph. Its pretty easy, if your currently hired just put in your current seniority % and if your not, put in you "hoped" for estimated hire year and it will compute it for you.

Pilots who have been watching the numbers closely will see that the Compass flow-through effect marginally effects most of the other regionals as it removes potential attrition slots in the model.

There is also a flow through with former Mesaba pilots up to around 100 something pilots at 9 a month to delta.

I am having difficulty finding reliable information on a Mesaba flow through agreements, does anybody have good intel, or can affirm the previously mentioned numbers?

PilotAnalsyt, you obviously are smoking some really good crack. Are you selling a book or are you Kit Darby who has made a career out of selling Pilots a bunch crap.:eek:

lol- I'm not sure if I've heard of Kit I had to look him up online. I hope the information and reports are helpful, I know I sure find them fascinating. I'm in the process of looking for volunteers to keep the model up to date. Feel free to let me know if your interested.

If I didn't have school to deal with, I would consider it. Pursuing a second degree in Physical Therapy. Maybe after next summer hiring will return (ATP requirement), but I just can't waste my life waiting on aviation to correct itself.:)

It's impossible to tell how many will flow at Eagle. Many people just don't want to go. If we are still in business... Eagle will probably have the most movement. 20 a month going to AA and who knows how many just going to all other airlines. Big possibility we will shrink too.
Also I think a few Piedmont guys can flow to USairways.

AE isn't gonna shrink. If anything they're gonna hire like bonkers to fill up the massive influx of RJ flying from the 1113 term sheet.