Pilot Shortage
11-12-2006, 02:48 PM
#1
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Pilot Shortage
It looks like the aviation industry is finally on the upswing. With the majors recalling and soon to be hiring in the near future, a pilot shortage is now proving to be evident. I for one am glad. I know the regionals are having a hard time filling classes. I hope this is a wakeup call to EVERYONE in management that in order to expand their operations and compete, they are going to have to finally offer adequate pay and quality of life to the workforce. I know for a fact that Mesa is already running severely understaffed and is having a hard time filling classes. I would like to hear your opinion on this subject.
11-12-2006, 03:02 PM
#2
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There may be an immediate shortage of entry-level regional pilots, you have to keep some things in mind...
1) Regionals are loathe to raise pay unilateraly, because they will probably be stuck with the raise for the long haul. They are hoping that this is a temporary phenomenon and are hoping to just ride it out. The low pay scale for first officers is a golden goose, they really don't want to mess it up.
2) Age 65 could still happen and would change pilot demand instantly for several years.
3) Many regionals can just lower the bar a few hundred hours to adjust the supply as needed (except mesa...at 250 hours they can't really go any lower).
4) Regionals may prefer to pass up a growth opportunity right now rather than raise pay scales...any raise will affect the profitability of ALL of their existing flying (which is already at a certain rate), not just the growth flying.
A sustained shortage lasting for several years might have some positive affect...assuming that the pilot factories are not able to ramp up their output. Financing for pilot training is getting harder to obtain...that should help if it stays that way.
1) Regionals are loathe to raise pay unilateraly, because they will probably be stuck with the raise for the long haul. They are hoping that this is a temporary phenomenon and are hoping to just ride it out. The low pay scale for first officers is a golden goose, they really don't want to mess it up.
2) Age 65 could still happen and would change pilot demand instantly for several years.
3) Many regionals can just lower the bar a few hundred hours to adjust the supply as needed (except mesa...at 250 hours they can't really go any lower).
4) Regionals may prefer to pass up a growth opportunity right now rather than raise pay scales...any raise will affect the profitability of ALL of their existing flying (which is already at a certain rate), not just the growth flying.
A sustained shortage lasting for several years might have some positive affect...assuming that the pilot factories are not able to ramp up their output. Financing for pilot training is getting harder to obtain...that should help if it stays that way.
11-12-2006, 03:32 PM
#4
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I've heard about the pilot shortage for almost 10 years now. There may be a shortage at some regional's, but there is no shortage at the majors and likely never will be. That 737 route that used to employ a couple mainline crews is a now a regional route. Fact of the matter is, that while a bunch of pilots may retire, mainline carriers no longer need the amount of pilots they needed before because they don't fly as much as they used to. That's our job now (for significantly less money).
Granted, places are hiring...but CAL hiring 60 pilots a month is nothing like the group interviews of old where mainline carriers were picking up pilots like a $2 hooker in vietnam. I'm not trying to be pessimistic, but in aviation, I won't believe it until I'm flying it.
Granted, places are hiring...but CAL hiring 60 pilots a month is nothing like the group interviews of old where mainline carriers were picking up pilots like a $2 hooker in vietnam. I'm not trying to be pessimistic, but in aviation, I won't believe it until I'm flying it.
11-12-2006, 03:53 PM
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It seems to me that everything lies heavily on the age 60 rule. If it is raised to 65 (which I hope never happens), upgrades and hiring at the top level will stagnate. On one hand, it's a huge liability to increase the retirement age to 65. On the other hand, everyone knows that it's ALWAYS ABOUT MONEY. So my question is that do you think that it will be economically feasible to raise the age?
I would like find out if flight schools accross the country are filling their classes. I doubt they are. People are starting to realize that being a pilot today certainly is different than being a pilot 20 years ago. Ask any Norhtwest pilot that was insulted as management sent out a memo on tips to save money which included dumpster diving. I wonder what the going rate is these days at one of the pilot factories. I know lots of guys who basically spent upwards of $85,000 + bucks in order to be paid less than $22,000 a year. Me, along with all of you guys out there worked really hard to get where we're at. I hope that we can soon reap the benefits.
I would like find out if flight schools accross the country are filling their classes. I doubt they are. People are starting to realize that being a pilot today certainly is different than being a pilot 20 years ago. Ask any Norhtwest pilot that was insulted as management sent out a memo on tips to save money which included dumpster diving. I wonder what the going rate is these days at one of the pilot factories. I know lots of guys who basically spent upwards of $85,000 + bucks in order to be paid less than $22,000 a year. Me, along with all of you guys out there worked really hard to get where we're at. I hope that we can soon reap the benefits.
11-12-2006, 04:03 PM
#8
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It would be better if they offered the difference as a 401K payment that vests over 4 years (25% per year). This way if people leave they can retain some of the money. It would be a win-win situation for both pilots and company.
How many 1st year FO are able to max out their 401Ks to IRS limits?
Just thinking out loud...Maybe one of the Sky pilot can suggest that to management.
-LAFF
How many 1st year FO are able to max out their 401Ks to IRS limits?
Just thinking out loud...Maybe one of the Sky pilot can suggest that to management.
-LAFF
11-12-2006, 04:38 PM
#9
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Originally Posted by ERJ145FO
Is it true that Skywest can't even fill classes? I've heard that they are thinking about offering 2nd yr F.O. pay for first yr. F.O.s. Again,its probably a rumor but I would like to see someone set the standard.
There was some talk about ASA transfers keeping their pay longevity, but I don't think it has happened yet. I think realistically the only change you might see for SKW new-hires would be a bump from $19 to 22-ish.
11-12-2006, 05:28 PM
#10
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there will never be a real pilot shortage as long as theres are cheasy adds showing Rj's and a kid walking around in a uniform saying, 0-right seat in as little as 9 months and the general public still believes that pilots make good money.
you need to get the word out, I MAKE CRAP, then noone else will wanna become a pilot
i do my part, everyone i meet i tell them how little i make and there extremely suprised
do your part!
you need to get the word out, I MAKE CRAP, then noone else will wanna become a pilot
i do my part, everyone i meet i tell them how little i make and there extremely suprised
do your part!
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