Go Back  Airline Pilot Central Forums > Airline Pilot Forums > Regional
Could regionals grow while majors shrink >

Could regionals grow while majors shrink

Notices
Regional Regional Airlines

Could regionals grow while majors shrink

Old 12-08-2012, 11:11 AM
  #21  
Gets Weekends Off
 
todd1200's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Aug 2007
Posts: 1,014
Default

Mainline contracts are allowing larger RJs, but at the same time, reducing the total number of RJs in relation to mainline jets. Regionals can only grow if mainline grows.
todd1200 is offline  
Old 12-08-2012, 11:19 AM
  #22  
Line Holder
 
Joined APC: Jun 2006
Position: A320 R
Posts: 37
Default

I will jump into the oven here!!

To answer your question-Yes.They can
Should they is tricky.

While a regional may grow and get bigger equipment,thus allowing a legacy to shrink,it opens the door to players the legacy carrier cannot control.
The VX and JB and Spirits and Southwests (or someone newer)will jump on a vacuum from the legacy carriers.
When these LCCs go the extra mile and develop codeshare agreements with foreign airlines then the nicely planned dreams of senior legacy airline mgmt gets shot down fast.

The regionals will always be in competition to the bottom as they try to get contracts with the legacy carriers.As the pilot population at these carriers gets senior and costs go up,they have a harder time cutting costs.

So can regional lift grow at the expense of mainline flying? Of course yes.
Is it a good plan?--Looks good on paper,but reality may be different.
Do I think legacy carriers are going to try this for a a bit more? yes I do.

Right now we have not felt the full effects of legacy consolidation.
NWA-DAL
UAL-CAL
US-AA is coming
then the mergers between the LCCs will start. I can see a JB VX merge which will make some really profound changes in the industry.
İn the end we will have 3 legacy-2 large LCCs, and regionals used to move bodies.
The ideas of these mergers-synergy etc-all hide the fundamental goal of controlling capacity and controlling ticket price/yield.Too much regional lift negates the yield goal. Supply and demand.

Just my 02 ...and FYI,I am usually wrong.Just ask my wife.
Ekpt40 is offline  
Old 12-08-2012, 11:34 AM
  #23  
Gets Weekends Off
 
JoeMerchant's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Feb 2008
Position: CRJ200 Capt.
Posts: 822
Default

Look at this little regional airplane....Where is this company now?

Photos: Huff-Daland D-49 Aircraft Pictures | Airliners.net

Here they are with a bigger plane.....

http://www.airliners.net/photo/Huff-...636b0c1cc523aa
JoeMerchant is offline  
Old 12-08-2012, 12:06 PM
  #24  
Gets Weekends Off
 
tomgoodman's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Feb 2006
Position: 767A (Ret)
Posts: 6,248
Default

The legendary Chief Pilot T.P. "Pre" Ball told us that he lost a coin-flip with Charlie Dolson, and therefore had to settle for the bottom seniority number as a Delta new-hire. The number was 12.
tomgoodman is offline  
Old 12-08-2012, 12:20 PM
  #25  
Gets Weekends Off
 
Joined APC: Mar 2011
Posts: 122
Default

Sadly it's just a matter of time before another airline goes bankrupt and Mr. CEO goes to the bankruptcy judge to have the RJ CAP thrown out.
SKYWCRJCA is offline  
Old 12-08-2012, 12:24 PM
  #26  
Moderator
 
Joined APC: Oct 2006
Position: B757/767
Posts: 13,088
Default

Originally Posted by JoeMerchant View Post
Look at this little regional airplane....Where is this company now?

Photos: Huff-Daland D-49 Aircraft Pictures | Airliners.net

Here they are with a bigger plane.....

Photos: Huff-Daland D-49 Aircraft Pictures | Airliners.net


You might want to click on your own links.
johnso29 is offline  
Old 12-08-2012, 12:30 PM
  #27  
Gets Weekends Off
 
JoeMerchant's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Feb 2008
Position: CRJ200 Capt.
Posts: 822
Default

Originally Posted by johnso29 View Post
You might want to click on your own links.
Ooops....Meant this one...

Photos: Douglas DC-3-G202A Aircraft Pictures | Airliners.net

Us damn regional pilots can't do anything right.....
JoeMerchant is offline  
Old 12-08-2012, 12:31 PM
  #28  
Moderator
 
Joined APC: Oct 2006
Position: B757/767
Posts: 13,088
Default

Originally Posted by SKYWCRJCA View Post
Sadly it's just a matter of time before another airline goes bankrupt and Mr. CEO goes to the bankruptcy judge to have the RJ CAP thrown out.
How long did it take for NWA to go BK? Delta? United? American? I'd say it could be a very long time before it happens again. It took a very long time to happen initially. You're now looking at a lot of Legacy airlines with little to no pension debt(which was a huge amount of BK debt).
johnso29 is offline  
Old 12-08-2012, 12:35 PM
  #29  
Gets Weekends Off
 
JoeMerchant's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Feb 2008
Position: CRJ200 Capt.
Posts: 822
Default

Look at this regional airlines route map.....

Google Image Result for http://blog.delta.com/wp-content/uploads/1954-dl-cs-map.jpg
JoeMerchant is offline  
Old 12-08-2012, 12:45 PM
  #30  
Moderator
 
Joined APC: Oct 2006
Position: B757/767
Posts: 13,088
Default

Originally Posted by sulkair View Post
Everyone keeps saying that the regionals are at death's door. Esspecially with the looming retirements, that the regionals will be drained of pilots to staff the majors, and the negotiating of contracts will put the flying back with the big boys.

But what if the opposite happens. I just read that AA's new contract allows for regional partners to fly bigger equipment. What if as the Majors become starved for pilots (high paid pilots), instead of moving heaven and earth to scrape them from every nook and cranny they just downsize and farm out more and more flying to larger regional aircraft, and lower paid crews?

I'm not saying this is good, obviously this is a doomsday scenario for our career! But it would make more sense economically if you're a profit driven corporation (not meant to sound derogatory, just realistic) Doesn't the trend in business these days seem to favor outsourcing and not the opposite?
With all the regional pilots out there, do you honestly think the Majors will become starved for pilots? I think many regional pilots are starving to leave their regional for a major. The pay stinks so bad that FOs will bail ASAP. Even CAs can have a better QOL by leaving. With Delta & UAL(TA approval pending) paying $60+ an hour first year, they'll already be making more money.

What I think will happen is the majors will have plenty of applicants, & the regionals will have problems staffing their planes. Between attrition at the majors level, & the new FTDT regs and min time requirements for a 121 job, the regionals will be in trouble. It's already resulting in massive drops in enrollment in aviation programs, as well as applicants being turned away from regional FO jobs because they won't meet the 1500 hr rule in time.

So in short, while your scenario is possible, I don't think it's likely for the reasons I listed.
johnso29 is offline  
Related Topics
Thread
Thread Starter
Forum
Replies
Last Post
pilotpat25
Regional
74
04-28-2011 05:51 AM
Convairator
Regional
73
02-21-2011 03:49 PM
Foxcow
Regional
200
09-13-2009 09:00 PM
Marty MCfly
Regional
72
04-16-2008 07:44 AM
phoenix23684
Flight Schools and Training
16
02-05-2007 09:17 AM

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On


Thread Tools
Search this Thread
Your Privacy Choices