Pinnacle Fleet Projection Analysis
 

The numbers are run for Pinnacles fleet announcement. The following is a description of it.

Pinnacle Announcement Commentary

This is the fleet projection

Pinnacle Airlines Pilot Demand Profile

I believe the current seniority number is right but if someone has an update of the amount of Pilots on the property I will update it.

Its ironic that in most business's people are compensated more for unpredictability, while in the Pilot business the pilots with the highest level of job certainty are compensated the best. Its kind of a reversal of the whole risk/reward principle that most careers are run on, the Pilot industry is strange in that regard.

My condolences to the Pinnacle Pilots and their families hopefully the data is informative.

Note if Pinnacle announces additional flying with another carrier the current projections would change alot.

Good luck to all PCL pilots but why would they speculate about a flow through? Delta had their chance with Mesaba and Compass when they had an established flow thru process and ended that quickly even when they had control of hiring techniques?

Thanks for sharing this info. It's a good read if nothing else.

The last SL we got was in August. We should be getting another one in the next month or so. I think we have ~2300 on property currently.

Thanks its be rerun for 2300 pilots.

Don't quote me on that number. I just know the attrition rate has been very high, and that's the number I've heard around several times.

66% of the pilot group furloughed if it passes
100% furloughed if it fails.

But 90% will land jobs at XJT/ASA/SKY/RP/AE and would be better off in 2-4 years, then the 450 downgrades that will never be Captains again.. The top 450 will lock in those spots and not go anywere... Not to mention the total slap in the face of former Comair employes... The way i look at it is the above airlines will hire 2000 pilots over the next 1-3 years if it fails. If it passes they may only hire 500.. Between them all... Time will tell but Delta has changed there hiring plans more then 4 times the past year so don't count on that...

Your assuming that Delta will not impose the same terms on these airlines in the future. ASA, XJT are in section 6 now, SKY is non union, they will be asked to fly at the same block hour rates 9E or Delta will continue down the line until X regional agrees to their terms. With regional flying shrinking many companies are eager to land these ever shrinking contracts. Delta has is in a huge position to set the market right now since they have shifted a lot of flying back to the majors and have pulled huge amounts of 50 seat capacity out of the market. Once this happens American, United, and US Air will be forced to do the same in order to compete. It looks more and more like the regional business will be a handful of small 76 seat operators, and then you will have your Great Lakes, and Silver doing the more remote ESA flying.

Exact number is 2449

So 176 gone in four months.

There is one pilot in that latest seniority list who is already at VX. So I guess it's 2448, minus whatever other errors with lack of attrition-upkeep.

Q: What is the wind down plan for the 200’s, and what is the plan for furloughs?

We have been told that all of the 200’s will be gone by the end of 2014, but we have not yet seen a fleet plan that embodies that end state. We have also been told that the 200’s will wind down “over the course of the next 2 to 3 years.” The lack of precision leads us to conclude that the final plan for the wind down has not yet been determined, and may be subject to change depending on fuel and on the economy. We have been definitively told that 200’s won’t start leaving the property before June of 2013.

With respect to furloughs, the company has told us that no furloughs will occur before April 2013. The total number of furloughs anticipated is between 100 and 150. The final number is dependent upon attrition over the next few months as well as the number of pilots voluntarily taking leaves. These are the ONLY furloughs that are expected during 2013.

The current staffing plan includes about another 150 furloughs in the early part of 2014, with the remainder of the furloughs coming in 2015. The total number of projected furloughs number between 500 and 600, with the actual number dependent on attrition and voluntary leaves, and the fleet composition. It is worth emphasizing that the farther these projections go out, the less certain they become, and that while we believe the 2013 projections are solid, the numbers thereafter are subject to change.

Q: When will the additional CRJ 900’s be delivered?

We expect that 12 CRJ 900’s will be delivered in the 4th quarter of 2013, and the remaining 26 will all be delivered in 2014.

Q: When will the company post another Realignment Notice?

We will answer this question in two parts. First, we just learned that the company plans to post a single class vacancy Notice during the week between Christmas and New Years that is primarily designed to increase the number of CRJ 900 First Officers by a number between 10 and 20, but may also include a small number of CRJ 900 Captains. The projected class date is February 4.

Regarding the next large Realignment Notice, the company has told us that it plans to post the Notice in the second half of January, and the Notice will include the displacement of all remaining turbo-prop pilots as well as the Atlanta wind down.

With the flow, Delta had no say in who they HAD to hire, with this new agreement, there is still an interview and a chance for Delta to decide you aren't Delta material. So they can still weed out those they don't want this way, with the flows, they were stuck with people that weren't "Delta people" And they don't want more "Northwest" in their Delta.

Considering DL is run by mostly NW people, you might be reaching a bit with thinking they don't want more "Northwest" in their Delta.


Agreed on the interview part.

Unless the 717 deliveries are accelerated, the CRJ-900 delivery schedule is a lie.

They are also being highly optimistic both on DL hiring and on people being able to move on to DL with the expedited interview process. Have they even done the research on how many guys don't have a 4-year degree? I'd be willing to bet that 300 out of the top 500 don't make the crossover....

That's right, I agree. There is a big group of guys that will not meet the requirments of Delta, that is why I believe this SSP will move through guys much quicker than a flow would. Also, Delta gets to pick and choose who they want.

Out of the top 1000 there are 400ish guys that are 50 plus, there are 600-650 that are 45 plus. There are also 108 Mesaba flows that do not count in the 12 per month interview number. Then there are people who don't have 4 year degrees. Then there are people who will go to other airlines. I don't know what age most people would say its not worth it to interview or if delta would hire a 50 year old who hasn't been a fo in 30 years, but if this ever does happen interviews will come faster than people think.

Actually I think many of the mid to lower range CA's and most FOs will never see the interview because of the senior log jam that I've outlined previously. The bridge document is quite specific that only current captains or captains that took an approved leave of absence will be offered the bridge. This carrot is not what most think it is.

Then they are left with only the deadwood still flying and the rest of the airline on furlough. Then they will find an excuse to shut it down. A mean and efficient way of getting the undesireables out of the system. It sounds familiar....

I'll call you later today, PinnacleFO.

Aren't we supposed to have 15 717's by the end of the year?1 crj for every 1.25 717's is pretty close to 12.

Here is the original delivery schedule, except the first delivery has been pushed back until Sept.

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-DH76nGni70...y+Schedule.jpg

So in other words, 3 a month? hahaha

Except the one time it's not. :)

I do not see how people do not understand your concept of the "lifer log jam" but it Shirley will mess up the program.

So what happens is the top 405 captains turn out to be lifers? Everyone is screwed?

From another board with union clarification, They take a snap shot the day of signing. You can be on eltloa and still go when your number is called up. You must have been a Captain at sometime with Pinnacle, a downgraded CA will not be jumped over by a Jr CA that took an ELOA.

The FOs who have to fly with them sure are.

The first deliveries are planned to still be in August. The in service date for the first revenue flights will be September. I don't see where the company will have any problems bring the 900 on board as scheduled. They can simply delay retirements on some of the aircraft the 737-900 are replacing by a few months. Its rumored some of the 757's are going to be staying past their planned retirement dates anyway.

Only if the "some of the aircraft the 737-900 are replacing" are B717 or A319 airframes.....

76-seat aircraft growth is ratioed against a "small narrow body (SNB)" as defined in the Delta PWA. Keeping an old 320 or 757 does not allow the company to begin revenue service with any additional RJ's.

You and I are thinking on the same page. I posted this on other thread:

Spot on. IMO, any FO who votes for this TA is doing themselves a major disservice as the ramifications of voting in the TA will follow the FOs and some of the junior captains to their next job. It is a better financial and career situation for most Pinnacle pilots except for the very senior older pilots to vote the TA down and have the company shut down. I have several reasons.

First, many FOs see the severance package as an attractive reason to vote yes. That severance package is actually your own money that will be taxed higher. If you vote no and just throw 9% of your money into a savings account every month til shut down you'll have a severance package just as good.

Next, if PNCL shuts down 81 900s will have to be placed elsewhere at a higher rate and therefore compensated better. PNCL FOs will be first in line to benefit from those jobs not only because they will be furloughed first during a wind down but also because the top 400 or so at PNCL who are older and haven't been an FO in decades will likely either retire, switch careers or apply to majors/lcc's etc. Doubtful many will apply at another regional. Vote in the TA and those now senior to mid level captains will occupy 400 captain slots and 400 FO spots at very low pay rates for several years(Not sure how long the TA contract length is). Even with the "flow to the interview" it's still doubtful many will move on.

Lastly a wind down of PNCL will cause several other regionals not in bankruptcy to grow quite quickly. 41 900s and many 200s(at least until the 717 fleet starts reaching a significant size) will go to a regional not in bankruptcy very quickly, then another 40 firm to potentially 70 900s in the long run. Skywest, XJT, Air Wisconsin and GoJet is all that is left to operate these aircraft. Each would have to hire so many so quickly first year pay would likely be thrown out. Vote the contract in and Not only would FOs be furloughed anyway, there would be at at least 800ish jobs less to go to as they would be occupied mostly by pilots who have been at PNCL 10 years+ locked in at payrates other regionals pay their junior capts,FOs.

PNCL FOs and very junior captains, dont vote yes and give yourself a significant paycut to get furloughed anyway and paid a portion of your own money as you exit. Don't vote yes and dampen your own career prospects to save the job of only the very senior who will be paid as junior pilots while hindering your own pay at your next job if it be another regional.

Just vote no and save yourself in the long run.

Good luck with your decision

That has no bearing on RJ deliveries. RJ deliveries are keyed off of the small narrowbody deliveries.

That will help.... a little.

Can you clarify further: So a Mesaba or Colgan captain who has never been a Pinnacle Inc captain is or is not eligible?

Unless alpa national changes it.