51driver

Wow who still wants to work for AE people????!!! Really!!!! Hows everyone's 10+ year upgrade coming along?!!? Why anyone would want to put themselves through that is beyond me! I laugh when I hear people excited about this dead end company.

afterburn81

It's only 10 years if think in terms of reality. Who's gonna believe that when in your interview the team is telling you 2-3 years. The koolaid is mighty strong in those interviews. In fact I would strongly suggest placing a napkin on your glass of milk as well. They are getting desperate now that there is a koolaid shortage and the cats out of the bag.

What

Actually Eagle's upgrade is not much different than RAH, SKW, Expressjet, Pinnacle and Airwisky. Even after stagnation for a year we have many guys who will just require a PC to get back to the left seat. Currently is just over 6 years. With that in mind we have more attrition forecasted than anyone else but the elephant in the room will be how many airplanes we will have on the fleet. From union, managers and independent pilots doing the numbers we will send around 300 guys to AA this year alone. Much is unknown as far as a merger and then what will happen to us even if AA remains independent. SKW, Compass and Horizon have slowed down hiring so you either go to Republic or Eagle right now.

Compass and GoJet are the only ones with below 5 year upgrades, mostly everyone else is over 5.

eaglefly

Unfortunately, the future attrition at Eagle won't be from where it is most beneficial to either the company or the pilots. Most of those with AA seniority numbers won't be flowing and many hundreds senior to them, at their seniority and slightly junior won't leave Eagle for anywhere either. Thus, anyone considering the future smaller Eagle should examine their age 65 retirement schedule to better assess advancement. Eagle current has about 3000 pilots and within a couple of years, 1000 will be captains at 18 year scale and not leaving. That means ultimately, this carrier which is projected to have slightly more than 2000 pilots will be a long-term F/O revolving training mill. It also means, the management of this carrier will have no choice in the future to either significantly reduce senior pilot compensation to effectively bid for future flying contracts or absent that, continue to contract at the rate of attrition with a possible Comair like destination.

If this carrier is to survive, they will have to entice those at the top to go elsewhere or risk getting a rep as a dead end company that many pilots won't come to or simply use as a 6-18 month jet training course for elsewhere. This carrier has some competitive and cost reality issues facing it in the future that will directly impact it's long-term viability.

What

That has already been done, the current TA will adjust the senior Captains longevity to the two most competitive regionals in about 3 1/2. Many of the old timers around here know this and you will actually see more senior guys flow that you are expecting. All larger regionals are facing the same issue, the senior guys are not going anywhere.

eaglefly

Of the 7 senior captains I've talked to in the last few weeks, 1 is definitely flowing and 1 is undecided. 5 are staying. I ask THEM what the vibe is among those also senior in the top 800 or so with and without AA numbers and the ALL said the majority won't flow from those they talked to. Commuting on RSV for $40/hour isn't doable for most in their 40's and 50's with kids/mortgages and impending college costs. The risk of future furlough also adds to the risk adverse outlook.

The $100-140,000 pay and $1/$1 401(k) matching will be targeted when your carrier has to bid for your future flying and to get that flying, compensation like that will suffer as there are other carriers who can outbid that. How ?

By gradual transition allowing them to siphon the future new hires with fast upgrades due to their "new" feed contract. Eagle will have to be able to ratchet captain pay down to perhaps 5th or 6th year scale to meet that bid or lose out. I think you are underestimating what whipsawing can do and what will be necessary to keep more of your flying in the future. I think ALPA knows this and will cave and you WILL get a portion of that 76-seat flying, but compensation adjustment for those senior will be a sobering gut-punch. In fact, I've brought this up with those senior I've talked to and they say that they expect something like that and it's still better than the risk of flowing and they could still be senior with decent schedules and job security.

This summer when AA will theoretically begin dipping into the 846 pool along with street hires, I think you'll see it go through and past those in the top 1000 fairly quickly.

What

You might want to read my post again. The current TA allows AMR to adjust longevity to the most competitive regionals, in other words the senior guys will see their longevity reduced in less than 4 years. Many say they won't go, but we shall see when the phone rings!

eaglefly

I read your post, but I think you don't understand mine. Your contract (do your really think it is still a TA ?) caps pay at year 15, but should a portion of your flying be put up for bid (actually, WHEN it is put up for bid) and another carrier can outbid you because that smaller carrier will get aircraft as growth and not replacement thus placing 5 or 6 year captains and also thus more new-hire F/O's in them because it will be perceived as a carrier with advancement, what will that cap do for your carriers ability to compete ?

Your still loaded with up to 1000 senior captains at 15-year scale.

Nope, you'll either have to agree to a new far lower scale (and 401(k) adjustment) to win that bid or accept that the Eagle glacier will melt faster. Question : Why do you think your management never formally submitted an 1113 to the court as part of your restructuring ?

Answer : Among the reasons was that they knew they couldn't get what they really needed from the court regarding senior pilot compensation when CURRENTLY compared to the competition, but CAN get that competitively and strategically via whipsawing.

Question : What has been the single biggest complaint/concern of AE management regarding their labor costs over the last several years ?

Answer : Senior pilot compensation.

A few bucks an hour and the same 401(k) match isn't what they had in mind and they're quiet about that now, but know they CAN get what they really need and have complained about for the last several years via whipsawing as there's no judge who can look at what the competition might have or listen to dissenting argument. Instead, they can just use direct ultimatum. They will likely place for bid an AA feed contract for say, 75 76-seaters and carriers who are smaller and/or who's pilots are willing to adjust compensation lower will get that contract unless your carriers union and pilots can meet or exceed that low-bid. Another carrier might get more copperation from their pilots if it involves growth and advancement and will also attract more pilots at the bottom if they perceive there to be more opportunity to move up quicker, so that may also mitigate AA's ability to attract feeder pilots in the future. It all matters on how it's played. In fact, you could even see poaching occur as Eagle pilots transfer from the stagnant to the growing as has occured in the past wherby some pilots chase the faster upgrade.

Pay to play will be coming to a carrier near you and you need to understand that and AMR being a "bottom line" corporation will go with the lowest bidder as they almost always have. Your present contract with 1000 pilots capped at 15-year scale ain't going to make it, IMO.

block30

I know some folks get really fired up at the senior regional guys to GTFO "their" seat, but for the two bolded reasons, it's hard for me to blame someone for not wanted to put their family through that.

Yes, there are a lot of age 65 guys coming up, but everyone knows how volatile this industry is. What we know to be true now, ends up not being true tomorrow. All that forecast hiring is now stagnation or furloughs? I don't blame anyone for being gun shy.

eaglefly

I don't blame them either. If I was still at Eagle and I had a choice of staying and riding it out at Eagle even at $80K/year or going to AA at the bottom of the list commuting on reserve with no furlough protection @ $40/hour at the beginning of a potential merger, I'd most likely stay too and I'm still a ways from my 50th birthday. A junior captain in his late 30's or young F/O's it's a no brainer, but for those older with the issues mentioned above who have dodged a lot of bullets so far, like the Gulf war, SARS, 9/11 and the economy collapse in '08, the warm confortable arms of the known is hard to leave. Unfortunely, as I stated before this will put this carrier in a more precarious place going forward as far as competitivness goes. The present "Eagle" even with its current pilots contract is still like a Marshall Fields or Carson Pirie Scott with high labor costs (many captains making upwards of $120,000/year or more) when Walmart carriers are ready, willing and able to move in and meet a need for cheaper. Conform or die will be the future.

When I left Eagle 2 years ago, I was making slightly less than an AA S-80 captain flying 40% of the seat revenue. That simply cannot continue and IMO, will not continue for much longer at this carrier. Those senior will almost certainly have to accept suckling a far less generous nipple for future compensatory nourishment if they want this carrier to have a future.