Business Week: Yes, There’s a Pilot Shortage:
 

The chickens are coming home to roost.

"The grim outlook for regional airline profits is also showing up in their stock prices. Shares of Republic fell 8 percent today and are off almost 15 percent this year. Another large regional carrier, SkyWest (SKYW), dropped 2 percent and has declined 19 percent in 2014."

pretty good article, hopefully it catches on

Well something's got to give that's for sure. Good article.

Some shortage. Here we are grasping at a link bait article as reliable evidence of a shortage. And read some of the comments:

"They're just glorified bus drivers"
"Why do we need pilots? The planes fly themselves"
"Get another job if you don't like it"

The public is not on our side. If things aren't good for you now, don't wait around for some magic "shortage" to change them.

Airline stock prices always rise before the end of the year and taper off at the beginning of the next year. This is nothing new. Thanks for the newsflash, Business Week.

You can't go by what some ignorant people post on these articles. Not everybody is going to empathize with our cause. I guarantee that if those same ignorant posters lose air service to their communities their posts would read differently. You have to give them credit though, some of those posts are funny but very true. We are glorified bus drivers, let's face it! The problem that I have is that a regular city bus driver or a greyhound bus driver has better pay, benefits and most likely better retirement than a regional airline pilot. Who's fault is that? Yours, mine, and every regional airline pilot that has accepted the low pay. That's just the reality of things. Something has to give! I hope this rule stands it's ground and regionals have a harder time getting pilots. It doesn't really matter what the general public thinks anyway, it's all about money. If it hurts the airlines pocket we'll start seeing change.

At the same time a lot of non-trolls are posting intelligent comments and getting a lot of thumbs up "WHAT DISGUSTING GREED!" "The ONLY reason the wages are so low is the fact that you and me, the consumer insists on the lowest possible price for a ticket" "Maybe airlines should consider paying more than a job as a part-time McDonald's night manager. I suspect their "shortage" will suddenly resolve itself." Someone actually thanked a regional captain for his comments "I thank you for your dedication to your profession and your obvious concern for your passengers" Hopefully more articles like this will help the public realize what's been driving those low ticket prices all these years.

What was the intention of this article?

I will only believe a shortage when an airline calls me: "Mr. XYZ, yes is airline ABC, we have your number from the FAA medical records, sorry the bother but we would like to invite you for an interview process, would you be interested..."
Is management 204, now we need concessions because we don't have pilots, and we have been loosing money due to cancellations....or the classic, take concessions for bigger equipment, we need to make the number in order to mitigate initial cost, and right now we don't have it... Rv5, am with ya'

The bottom line is the dollar. The regional airlines hit their peak a few years back, and since then momentum is trending downwards. As much as people want to complain about meager wages, it's somewhat of a self-correcting problem. There are signs that this problem is going to be catching up with the regionals -- their business model is going to have to drastically change at best.

The "pilot shortage" is a shortage of qualified pilots -- not at the top tiers, however. There is a shortage of pilots willing to work entry level jobs because of barely livable wages (especially for those with families to support) and no guarantee of significant upward career mobility.

I am a dual-rated guy and currently fly helicopters for Uncle Sam, but even in the rotary-wing side of the aviation house, there has also been a looming "pilot shortage" for years. All the Vietnam-era pilots are allegedly 'on their way to retirement,' yet what we're seeing is a surplus of qualified military helicopter pilots from the Army, Navy, Marines, Air Force (and USCG) getting forced out of the military and taking jobs that low timers and civilian-trained guys are fighting to get. Needless to say, there was never a true shortage because there was a very qualified person ready to step in once there was a vacancy.

I digressed slightly, but my point is that if anyone thinks there is going to be a shortage at the major airlines, joe pilot with his ATP-R is not going to walk into a job. It's going to be competitive at the highest echelons (as it is in any industry). The shortage is going to be at the very bottom. The good news is that it will force the industry to make changes that may make working an entry level job at a 121 carrier more desirable; however, it may take some time... how much times, who knows, but I wouldn't count on it any time soon. It's a slow, slow bleed...

Professional pilots are glorified bus drivers, all right...and the planes do mostly fly themselves...

...but I'd guess the interweb know-nothings fully expect a Sully Sullenberger in every cockpit, you know, for the times stuff goes wrong and the planes don't fly themselves.

I'm also guessing none of those fools would volunteer to be the first paying passengers on a RPA...

Sounds like someone is on our side. This is the first article ive read which really emphasizes the pay and cites an analyst who agrees the pay must go up.

The ignorant public is dollar driven.. while there might be some patriotic rage, the public will soon acclimate to Chinese pilots flying them around in SWA paint...

What?

Airline Pilots buy Made in China just as much as anyone else....

I still can't figure out why there will not be a Pilot shortage system wide in this country. The 15000hr rule is an obstacle to aspiring Pilot's, the new rest rules are an obstacle to management, the continued rising costs to obtain your certs/ratings is an Pilot obstacle not to mention if you have to self finance part of the 1500hrs and the continued low starting wages at Regional airlines is a Pilot obstacle. When the guy's/gal's at the 1500hr level and above are gone, who will be left to fill the gap? Add in the foreign airlines expansion and their lack of Pilot's and what do you come up with? Simple, no Pilot's.

Your post is a rambling mess. If anyone is going to experience an actual pilot shortage, it's China. Nice try troll.

People will accept the inflated costs and longer path to an ATP if the compensation once one gets qualified makes it worthwhile.

Right now, its not even close for new pilots.

When Delta struggles to fill classes, there will truly be a scarcity of pilots. When a regional struggles to fill classes, it simply shows a shortage of pilots willing to accept that level of compensation. Raise the compensation and the shortage goes away - Econ 101 market equilibrium curves.

My crystal ball says fewer, larger airplanes with reduced frequency to most markets...

Management are hooked on cheap labor. They will do anything to get their fix. Since 2001 they have been able to get away with murder. Like a drug user they will need to work really hard to get clean. They will lie to the FAA, the public, their employees. Everyone so they can protect their cheap labor.
Everything has a period of existence. I just hope this is the beginning of the end of regional airlines.

Good comparison.

When people say those kind of things, I like to reply with "oh okay... Well how about that bus driver and I trade jobs for the day with neither of us having any training on the other's job and see who lives longer".

And I actually saw way more empathy than negativity towards our profession in the comments.

Another article, this one on the pending Eagle MEC vote. The money quote: "regional jet industry is characterized by low salaries that fail to incentivize pilots, resulting in a perceived pilot shortage" The more that's written about the "pilot shortage" hopefully the more the public becomes educated about what's really going on in the regionals. American Eagle Pilot Leaders Will Decide Wednesday on Contract Vote - TheStreet

Once they get qualified? So, you have your 1500 and an ATP. Your now "qualified" to make $22,000 per year and hope that there is no stagnation, war or down turn. How many years to pay off the student/Pilot debt load at regional wages? Interest rates will be raising and the thought of paying off the debt at the chance of making it to a Major is way to risky for my money.

Glossed right over the "Right now, its not even close for new pilots" part, did ya?

I attempt to vote with my wallet by not patronizing "cheap crap" stores and research the food I buy because I realize the adage 'you get what you pay for' is usually true. Before I got travel benefits, I bought plane tickets based on my perceived total value, not simply who had the cheapest tickets. Hopefully we can change the general cheap skate paradigm through education, and articles like these probably *do* help.

P.S. The article says RAH is losing 22 Million a year in lost revenue on those 27 parked aircraft. (I read that correctly, right?). I wonder if those losses are worth not fixing compensation and or career progression?

Airline Pilots Get Paid Crap

I think this might be the best article i've read so far. This guy gets it and it's pretty funny/sarcastic too. From the article, seriously:


Republic Airways announced this week that it's grounding 27 of its planes due to a "shortage of qualified pilots." Possibly related: many airline pilots get paid jack s*it.

No gloss over me-com-pad-re, just venting at the continuous B.S. that permeates this F'ing industry. Balls to the wall.

I worked for a 121 (now defunct) operator that made the statement "We would rather give our lawyers $1 million a year rather than giving the pilots a raise of $1 million".
Typical management, nose meet face.

If you can, get a hold of the first page of the second section of today's WSJ. Mostly stuff we all knew, but it's another log in the fire for regional lift and the model we all know and "love". (sarcasm).

The only thing that's changed is our underwear, hopefully.

In no way do I consider myself or hold my self to the standards of a glorified bus driver. I have dedicated a substantial amount of time to my aviation and college education along with countless hours perfecting my abilities as a professional pilot. Do I agree with the regional pilot pay scale, absolutely not but I also don't know many bus drivers that have the opportunity to make 70+K a year if he progresses his / her career.

I understand things have been stagnant for awhile and I want nothing more then to see myself and fellow pilots advance our long stagnated careers. However, I can't emphasize enough that we must maintain our high level of professionalism, education and safety while the industry starts to shift and opportunities open up. As these opportunities open so will the compensation and benefits packages we deserve as professionals.

If you want to be treated and looked upon as an educated professional then you must demand this perception and treatment through your actions and professionalism.

If you want to be a bus driver then go drive a bus... :D

i posted it because it's funny

Agreed! I'm with you pal. My post wasn't meant to be critical of your post.

That won't be happening for one reason, american regional pilots are among the lowest paid in the world. The chinese simply make more money staying in their own country, with their families, living in their culture. Theres no incentive for an airline pilot to move to the united states for $1600 a month. Show me an airline pilot who has as low a standard of living as an american regional pilot...I dare you.

The daredevil pilots of Colombia - the vintage Douglas DC-3 plane - YouTube

Also, see the documentary on Russian pilots, pretty sure someone posted a link somewhere on this site, warning though, it's extremely depressing.

Awesome and funny video,,, ... great piloting skills...

China: About 8 yrs ago, they paid max of about $12K/mo for small airbus capt. Now they pay max $20K. They also paid max of about $8K for ERJ capt. Now they pay max $18.5/mo for -190 capt and $15.5/mo for -145 capt.

Back then you had to move to China. Now they have a huge variety of commuting schedules. And, in the last few years, two Chinese airlines have started US basing for some capt positions.

The Chinese are now building 84 large airports. They are starting multiple new airlines per year. Their airlines are ordering THOUSANDS of new aircraft. They will not be exporting pilots anytime soon...probably not for 20+ years.