It'll never get better.
 

XJT & Republic's staffing issues resolved by parking their 145s.
Eagle, Endeavor and other 50 seat operators will do the same.
Pilot shortage over.

What pilot shortage? What staffing issues? We were being had all along. If republic had staffing issues, they would've called back some of the 3,000 people they interviewed this year that held ATPs.

Well, if these were feed providing airplanes, then it is now a passenger shortage of feed not happening. Problem less than solved.

If you stop using the word shortage, and more appropriately call it increased demand, then this thread is over.

This just in, supply and demand is a crock of ****.

Eagle parking all 140's junk Jets. They will transfer the CRJ's soon.

three e145's equal 150 seats, two crj900's or e175's equal 154 seats.
company can only cover capacity due to large mainline requirements for pilots to replace retirements by replacing 3 for 2 giving feeder minimum 10 extra pilots per ratio. If RAH parks 40 e140-145's that's an average 400 pilots. if these airplanes are replaced by crj900-e175's (27 airplanes) at 10 pilots per airplane that give RAH a surplus of 130 pilots (for now).

Eventually with the larger airplanes at feeders the frequency of flights will be reduced and the total aircraft count will reduce the staffing requirement will be controlled at best.

This all depends on how many leave the industry or get mainline jobs. If large number of regional pilots go for either two options mentioned the regionals will be in a position of not meeting there staffing requirement and violation of feed contract.

Conclusion would be that the regionals would have to merge to streamline the operation from overlaps to be able to meet the mainline required feed. The only other conclusion would be for mainlines to buy the regionals and give them flow to mainline options to control the exodus and be able to attract pilots to the regional. Now this would require mainline union to play ball with management. Unless they think offering preferential interviews to non owned regional pilots would suffice to attract pilots.

Either case, only minimum flying would return back to mainline flying. Management will not put all its eggs in one basket ever again at mainline.

Getting off subject a bit, but speaking of something that never gets better: commuting. The most important factor for a commuter is how many jumpseats are going back and forth each day, not the size of the airplane. As a commuter, I would rather see 6 50 seat RJ flights a day rather than just 3 larger aircraft. We know the load factors going forward will continue to require sitting up front often. It seems as though many commuters may actually hate seeing the 50 seat fleet diminish, resulting in a drastic reduction in commute options.

You have it figured out.
(not to mention that there will be less and less demand as the average Joe has less and less disposable income)

True, and much as the public *thinks* they hate little planes, they like frequency way more than they like comfortable seats...they just don't realize that bigger plabes mean fewer flights. Never heard of a PAX say he'd pass on the RJ and wait four hours for the NB.

Maybe they will not pass up an RJ but plenty certainly "book" a mainline flight in the first place. I fly for the military about every other month and get to book my own flights - I always book mainline.

Now if I got to the airport early would I pass up an RJ? Generally no, if it would get me home earlier.

Passengers "like" frequency but they "love" low cost. :D

Scoop

I agree. I have noticed business travelers hurry on board 50 seat RJs and fire off one last phone call talking about finishing up business sooner than expected and pleased to be getting on the earlier flight. I remember watching one guy hang up and complain to the guy across the isle about the size of the jet after such a conversation. In the future he will not have the earlier option at all. The economics are what they are, and frequency will be cut.

Newsflash, most people are selfish and fail to think outside themselves and put anything into the context of a bigger situation, especially as applied to complex ideas such as the economics of air travel. More on this story at 11.

just because there is a shortage does not mean they hire anybody

I know people at recruiting and I can assure you that they can't find enough QUALIFIED (not only holding ATP) pilots to fill the need and the year of retirements at the majors have just started and retirements will increase the coming years.

Most regionals are loosing 30 guys per month right now, XJT lost 80 guys in one month. All the majors are hiring even Southwest and the hiring is not up to speed yet.....

They will have to ground many airplanes to compensate 300+ pilots leaving per year and that is only one place.

We will see at the end of the year if there is a shortage of qualified pilots without failed checkrides, DUI and criminal records.......

we'll see

Why not? Because the FAA certification of an Airline Transport Pilot (ATP) is not good enough for them?

Being picky is any employer's prerogative by all means, but when they are choosy it does not equate to a supply shortage. If you go to the grocery store and prime rib is too expensive and you pass on buying any because it is too costly for you, that does not mean there was a shortage of prime rib.

And this, because they would not risk it on a pilot with a busted checkride or two with an ATP? No sympathy, no sympathy at all. It is not a genuine pilot shortage by such definition. They could hire people with all ~9 failed practical exams and all ~5 failed written exams rather than park these airplanes, but they choose not to do so. That is not a pilot shortage as much as a deliberate choice not to hire the many qualified pilots available.

We already know there's a shortage of top choice pilots, such as those without any checkride busts, misdemeanors, bad breath etc. What's your point?

I too have a habit of doing this. I also think the public has gotten a little smarter too now that flight bookings must show who is actually operating the flight ever since Colgan. Many are choosing to drive a few extra hours to a larger city for a mainline flight, instead of a regional connection and a layover. Travel times are almost longer for me when I dont drive 2-3 hours to MSP instead of leave from a smaller regional served airport. Also tends to be cheaper... Tried to get a flight once from MKE to Kearney, NE(KEAR). Fly into Denver then to a GLA flight. over $1,200 round trip 6 months in advance!!! Screw that, im goin to Omaha then driving.

You really are naive, aren't you? I know of examiners who gave away ATPs in a light twin like it was candy. Don't you think that maybe the airlines are being selective because they are dumping thousands of dollars into new hires that end up failing checkrides, dropping out of training or getting "let go" due to not being able to maintain proficiency. There is a difference between flying a Seminole to ATP standards and flying a transport category jet.

But I do enjoy getting lessons from people who got everything they needed to know about economics from an 11th grade textbook.

Being a "professional" pilot includes making sure one never gets a DUI and that one never gets a Criminal record.

Big part of being a Professional Airline Pilot is having good judgement and DUI and a record shows a weakness in judgement.

When it comes to failed checkrides it is looked at every individual case and it depends what they failed and if there is a trend or not.

Any company in any industry that hires "Professionals" have requirements and a min acceptable qualifications.

Just because the min for the FAA is just to have an ATP does not cut it. If they would only follow that and something happens the FAA will make them explain what they were thinking hiring a pilot with a trend of failures and a record. We have seen what that can cause in the past.

I hope as a "Professional pilot" that we never hear that it is ok to hire pilots with DUI, criminal records and a trend of failures just because we have a shortage of pilots. I know some places will eventually because they are getting desperate.

I wish the Regionals would instead increase the pay and use that to attract enough "Professional" pilots instead of lowering the bar.

There are a lot of pilots outside the profession without any problems or records that are doing something else because the Regionals do not pay enough.

The jet is easier.

in level flight maybe but that's it

In the jet your maturity, judgement and responsibility for a hell of a lot more passengers than in a seminole comes into play.

Not to mention you better have some deep system knowledge in the jet when you need it.

It cuts it for the the FAA though. I never said industry cannot choose who or what they want, all day every day. They can choose only space shuttle pilots with PhDs if they can find them and they are willing to work for nothing. But getting back to the prime rib example, if you cannot afford to buy prime rib, that does not indicate a shortage of prime rib in the grocery store.

Agreed, they should just pay a wage competitive with other similar occupations, problem solved. But there is no pilot shortage.

I'm pretty sure that there is leadership at the very top of one of largest(if not the largest)airlines in the world that have a record that includes more than one DUI? Okay for the leadership but not the hired help?

I like how little time has lapsed since age 65 has hit and people are already speculating that the "shortage" has / has not come. It's definitely changing things in the industry faster than the previous 10 years. The retirement numbers don't even pick up to their highest for another 4 years. People need to relax. As far as records of pilots go, each pilot should be judged individually and not purely on their record. Maybe one pilot doesn't have any failures because he just happened to be at the right place at the right time. Maybe another pilot has a failure or two because the specific examiner or training department was much harder. It doesn't make the person with zero failures a de facto better pilot. And a mainline carrier should be able to figure that out in an interview. And there's plenty of "good old boys" at mainline that have DUI's. It became a huge issue when there was a stigma attached to it in the 90's.

"Autopilot on".

Both the commuter and major I was hired at didn't even do a sim ride on the interview.

Kinda blows your theory out of the water.

The interview is mainly about personality at some places, and that seems to work well for them. Flying airplanes these days is more about mental capacity than stick and rudder skills. Yes, important to still be able to operate a plane but I think by the time you've got to that point, with very few failed check rides, etc you can do that.

I partially agree with this statement; however, it doesn't take much to weight restrict the CR2's, which negates any advantage of having more jets on the same route.

Commuting has been harder these days it seems but its always going to suck and plan on commuting as long as I am at the regionals. I would rather see two 737 or airbus on the route then any amount of RJ's.

I flew the 50 seat RJ for 8 years and can count on maybe 3 fingers how many times I have been weight restricted. I don't think we've ever left a jumpseater behind. This is east coast short legs which from what I can tell is the worst case scenario.

Sweet name drop. No one cares that you were hired at a major. For being someone so proud of all the things you've accomplished, you might want to take some of your days off to learn how to read. I never said that a sim ride has anything to do with hiring. What I said was(and I'm going to make this REALLY easy for you to understand) even during a shortage, employers are going to be picky. They don't want to waste time and money (thousands to tens of thousands of dollars) on someone who isn't going to hack it. Just because you hold a certificate doesn't automatically make you employable.

I've had a few times just this winter out west with runway performance considerations, and fuel weight considerations with longer stages and alt fuel.

LOL now I know why I stopped posting in this board. Enjoy your bitterness.

Count on 3 fingers...you mean "count on one hand." Lol!!! Sorry I just laughed when I saw this...carry on.

I'm not bitter. I'm actually pretty happy. When I'm bored, I just enjoy trolling these message boards.

That's unfortunate. I mostly come here to try and help people.

Are you management??

I'm very much a pilot but that doesn't matter. You don't like what I have to say. I will never jump on the "boo hoo bandwagon" and point out how ridiculous some the arguments here are.

They can just go to Republic. :D