Expect it to get messy before it gets clean.
 

Okay, so roughly 66% of ALL regional pilots have told their (go between) management that they understand supply and demand economics and that they have a (newly) limited commodity. Its a start. Of course, the ONLY reason the regional airlines exist is to have that "B-scale" bottom of the totem pole group to keep labor costs in check for the balance of the industry. Basically, with the majors controlling/owning most everything but flight crews/ mechanics, Regional airlines are nothing more than staffing services. The cost of managing the regional airline is where the Flight Crew/mechanic salary parity goes. Delta pays a 4 year 112 seat airplane F/O $112 and hour while 76 seat regional F/0's pull in around $40/hr. 3/4 of the seats for about 1/3 of the pay.. and the EXACT SAME JOB SKILL SET.
Don't expect the majors to give up this massive bargaining chip without a fight. They have spent BILLIONS in the past to have this position at the table... it's gonna get interesting.

I expect to see the oldest Eagle airplanes go away quickly... The big three suppliers will drag their collective feet at the tables as long as the airplanes are moving. Whoever blinks first will set the tone.

In a way Delta is already moving away from the regional model as it currently stands. Delta has publicly acknowledged that out sourcing so much flying has negatively impacted their brand name. Delta also purchased 717s which will be doing flying that was previously done by their regional carriers. The trend has already started, how long it will take to fully implement and see the regional carriers shrink in size and scope I have no idea.

I think these latest two votes are going to mark a transitional period for the regional airline industry, assuming there isn't a terrorist attack, spike in oil prices, recession, etc., that causes the airline industry to shrink and/or reduce demand for airline pilots.

I think all airline management teams realize what they need to do, but the problem is no regional airline wants to be the first one to sign a contract that has $50,000/year First Officers, only to have something in that first paragraph happen and be saddled with a pilot contract with costs higher than those pilot groups who....ahem....would end up cheaper- like SkyWest, Endeavor, PSA, and the likes. They're in a bind, and there's no "cheap" way out of it. If they knew the economy was going to keep humming along as it has for the past few years, a smart regional could provide the appropriate pay increases for their pilots, absorb the resultant higher costs, but go to the majors offering the RFPs and say, "Hey, yeah, we're more expensive than our competitors, but we can actually staff our airline with pilots at the pay rates we're offering, unlike our competitors bidding on your flying who will leave your customers high and dry for lack of pilots."

That first regionals that do that should start dragging up wages across the board, because whichever regional airline pays that higher rate, paying that first year F/O $50,000/year, is going to get ALL the pilots they want. That will leave the other regionals hurting for pilot recruits. That kind of wage might even pull in all the guys/gals who have those 1,500 hours OUT of their non-flying jobs or non-airline jobs back into the airline biz, temporarily fixing their self-created pilot shortage- which we all know really isn't a shortage at all.....for now.

But my concern is even longer term. I find it hard to believe that major and regional airline management teams are going to let us lowly pilots push them around like this for long. They have got to be doing or lobbying for SOMETHING that will get them around this pesky 1,500 hr. rule. What that "something" is I'm not sure. Perhaps pushing for some sort of "ab initio" program with a defined path to a regional airline first officer seat? Something more sinister? Don't know.

This RJ pilot won't blink. I'd rather quit than make one less penny than I make now. It took me 7 very long years as an FO before being able to hold captain. In those 7 years I never made more than just over $50,000. There are many guys junior to me that will have to wait even longer than I had to wait for an upgrade.

I'm tired of this ****. I'm giving it 2 more years (and even 10) before I call it a career and do something else. There is a finite number of years we are able to do this job. I am tired of the decade long internship. I love this job but I refuse to do it for less. It's time to move up or move out.

For you new guys coming in; don't assume to be in and out in 3 to 5 years. Assume the worst as far as how long you will be at your regional. You never know what may happen next. When voting on new contracts, vote as if you may never be able to leave, just in case you can't. Nothing has happened until it happens. Don't vote as if you already have the upgrade or the job waiting at a legacy. It's past time to demand being paid as professionals from day one.

It's all going according to the plan DAL and ALPA crafted. When regional pay rises to that level the advantage of outsourcing is gone. DAL (and the others, but especially DAL since they've positioned themselves to take advantage of it) will eliminate most RJ flying, taking the CRJ9s and E175s they own to be flown by mainline at the current pay rates in the current DAL PWA. Notice how ALPA is suddenly claiming there's no pilot shortage, it's a pay problem? How convenient.

The skeleton of the regionals will return to the 90s "commuter" airline days code sharing and at risk flying. Endeavor and Envoy will cease to exist. RAH will move toward UAL and AA until they follow suit. Silver and Great Lakes are well positioned for growth in picking up dropped CRJ routes to small cities. SkyWest and its subsidiaries will most likely use their remaining CRJ200s and 700s for at risk flying and use their large airplanes to start a stand alone airline.

It's all going according to the plan...

Can anyone provide the 900 pay scale at DAL? I've heard they have it, but have yet to see any proof or how good it actually is.

Thanks!

highly doubt that outcome. transition from smaller rj's to larger will stem the lack of pilot applicants. you can be unhappy about your fedder contracts all you want, since you do not control the quality then mainline shut up. only resolution are via the owned regionals and just waiting to see whom UAL buys. Any statements regarding costs are moot points for the owned regionals since that information does not exist in public and just because management says anything does not mean it is true.

oh the 717 that dal got, let see, southwest painted them, refurbished the interiors and pulling out of Atlanta as a hub turning to a small focus city. guess that did not have anything to do with that.

we will see, in about 18 months.

Is there a medium point for regional pay? Somewhere that is higher than now, but still less than mainline and will still make it worthwhile for mainline to outsource. I think they will try that, rather than bring it in house. They have become addicted to cheap feed and that labor flexibility (ie. whipsaw). They don't need to raise captain's pay at the regionals, just FO pay, but the union decides how any pay raise is apportioned betw. FO's and CA's. That is one reason we are seeing all these hiring bonuses. What if they start offering a 10K bonus for every new hire for each yr. completed up to yr. 4? They could easily revoke the bonus whenever they want too.

The only way this will move forwards and benefit the pilots is if those 10,000 pilots stick together. In the next weeks, ALPA and Teamsters need to come together and present a single contract framework. Basics of pay rates by aircraft and longevity, pay bumps, soft pay (cancellation, junior manning, DH pay) policies, medical costs and contract longevity. Since Skywest and a few others are due for negotiations soon they need to also present this as their starting point for negotiation. If these 13,000 pilots can work together and make a reasonable and defensible framework then all these no votes will truly mean something.

The moral of this story is who controls the beans at the counter and the unfortunate parties in which do not! Only took me 2 years in the mid-90's at a regional to figure this out. :(

Delta CRJ 900 rates Jan 1, 2014
FO CA
yr 1 68.08 124.26
yr 2 68.08 125.19
yr 3 78.38 126.22
yr 4 80.29 127.24
….
yr 12 92.44 135.36

Thanks! It's insane to see those numbers compared to what we're making now.

It's decent money. But if it ever comes to fruition that that gage of equipment comes to mainline Delta, the rate actually kind of sucks. here's the JB rate for the 190 as of 2014;

CA yr 1 131.10 yr 12 170.13

FO yr 1 49.56 yr 12 115.67

Here's UAL's rates effective for 2014

CA yr 1 120.64 yr 12 131.42

FO yr 1 66.10 yr 12 89.75

The fact that SKYW owns the next 600+ RJ's to be built throws a kink in this.. Are you supposing they intended to get out of the crewing business and ONLY be a leasing company?

This is the big misnomer. Regional airlines are not "cheap feeds" for the majors... Once you pass through fuel, pay for Managment, Scheduling, corporate offices, a little something for shareholders and some corporate profit ( if applicable) I really don't think we are all that much "cheaper".. just something for the legacy guys to use at the negotiation table... pilots are easy to distract to $/hr... but moving people is MUCH more than pilot salaries.

Lakes and Silver will never grow EAS is going away and will only be around for places that actually truly need it.

Disagree. If it's not cheaper, they wouldn't be doing it.

This. This is why the unions need to fight the "new-hire bonuses" tooth and nail. There should be no bonus. If you want new hires, make the entire pay-scale adequate.

If anything, they should disallow new-hire bonuses, but allow retention bonuses. Already work here? Willing to sign a letter of intent to work here for 24 months from now? Here's 10k.

Forget the bonus pay a decent wage and you won't need it the garbage regionals offer a huge bonus because they know most will bail before they get the 2nd yr bonus it solves the short term staffing problem. They've run the numbers they know that training costs are not as much of a concern compared to not being able to have decent completion factors.

This is what needs to be done. All three unions get together and present your respective managements with the exact same contract.

EMB-190 seats 10% more people than the 900, so there should be a difference. DAL and UAL have a 195 scale as well. Tack on the 16% DC into the mix and you have a very com-probable view. Pay rates are only one component of the over all pay basket. JBL has done a nice job of raising that portion of the bar.

Well you have many associations, but one that calls itself a Union. Then there are the non-Unionised carriers to bring to the table as well. If that is all done then I imagine the DOJ saying that we can't do this, because it will have created a monopoly. Then in comes the WTO and objects, but all the while Norwegian, EY and EK will have skirted the issue and undercut us all.

$112/hour? Let's be realistic here. I don't think the regional plots are looking to make legacy FO pay, just enough to get them out of poverty. Look at the kudos C5 got for their recently agreed to LOA. It's not rocket science. If the majors are going to pull the plug on regionals because they don't want to pay regional pilots a livable wage then let them. They'll be paying a hell of a lot more to pay their own pilots to fly these routes in 717's anyway. Now that is the epitome of cutting off your nose to spite your face.

true Doug....

Welcome to the dance. Exactly what I said when DAL went after Comair. The plan has been in the works since at least 2009, just waiting for the right time and right person to implement it. The legacies can and will cherry pick routes and move them to mainline flying. What's left will fall to the side for someone to pick up and try to figure out how to profit off of it.

Mostly, I agree that more seats should equal more money. But then I look at how UPS does it, and maybe they're on to something. But along the lines of more seats=more money, look at the 744 and 777 at both UAL and DAL. Not always so black and white/cut and dried, is it?

True, sorry, don't have the DAL scale handy for the 195, can you post it? But here's the UAL one for 2014;

CA yr 1 141.81 yr 12 154.48

FO yr 1 66.10 FO yr 12 105.51

Agreed. But keep in mind, those things are relatively "new" if you will. Considering the post 9/11/BK's and the days of frozen/terminated pension plans, and FINALLY being able to get DC's BACK.

Again, agree. The 3 different CBA's I've worked under have proven this point EVERY year of the 15 I've worked under them. So it's not like your point is a new one to me. I know 2 JB 190 CA's that broke 200K last year, and they're on track to do it again this year. And I'd hardly rate their QOL as miserable, bad, or substandard while hitting those numbers. So yep, it's not ALL about the pay rates.

Don't get me wrong, I'm NOT flaming you nor peeing in your cheerios. But in the mantra that some (NOT saying you) take of "we're a legacy airline!!!!!! we've got the BEST of everything!!!!!!! The best rates, the best retirement, EVERYTHING!!!!!!!!!!", the legacies that have CR9/EMB190/195, or whatever else are going to have to step up next round. At least for the guys that like to brag about EVERYTHING anyway.

And I know, I know....... If/when the legacies DO see those aircraft show up, they'll be "junior, the pilot won't be on them very long......." Which is always a good thing. But then ask a UAL narrow body FO that was luck enough to NOT be furloughed and barely clinging on to a narrow body seat. With a crappy pay scale, a crappy monthly guaranty, crappy work rules, whatever.......

Thats a good idea, I wonder if it could really happen?

I like this! I can work!