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The Flow Carrot is for Mgmt, Not for Pilots

Old 12-29-2014, 11:43 AM
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Default The Flow Carrot is for Mgmt, Not for Pilots

The Flow Carrot is for Management, Not for Pilots

Please recognize flow as the MANAGEMENT marketing tool that it is. Flow is designed to give management the power to get you into the right seat of THEIR RJ (they are competing desperately for qualified pilots), and keep you there for as long as they can. THAT is their goal, to keep pilots flying in the cheap seats, for as long as possible. They know this regional game is coming to an end, so they are throwing the flow carrots out there in a desperate attempt to recruit. Once they can no longer staff, and that day is coming much more quickly than they, or anyone, thought, the regional game is done. This flying will go back to mainline.

Please realize that for the most part, flow will only slow your career down. Management will decide the order and the speed of you flowing to the mainline. In most cases, that will take years. Donít give management control over your career. They will keep you in the cheap seats as long as they can. Regional managementís survival depends on it and mainline managementís cheap feed depends on it.

In the near future, you will be able to prep for the interview and get to a major on your own much more quickly than any flow is going to get you there. Do not give anything up for flow. You no longer need it. Management is hoping you are still traumatized over the lost decade, and THINK you need it. You donít.

If the regional of your choice happens to offer a flow, thatís great. Itís a good back-up plan if all else fails. But donít let that be a deciding factor.

Some will say Ė ďBut the majors have 10,000 applications on file.Ē Yep. Thatís true. But most of those 10,000 applications are on file at American, Delta, United, Southwest, Alaska, FedEx, UPS, etc. . . . The SAME 10,000 apps are in everywhere. Once the floodgates open, it wonít take long for them to get through those applications.

Lastly, I would say it is almost a detriment for you to join a wholly owned regional with the intention of working for that mainline carrier. As staffing gets more desperate for the regionals, would you, as a mainline manager, prefer to pilfer pilots from your competitorís regional feed, and sink their ship, or cannibalize your own? In a desperate attempt to keep their regional feed alive, they will start taking pilots from their competitorís regionals before they take their own and sink their own ship.

Just my opinion. But, hey, what do I know.
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Old 12-29-2014, 12:29 PM
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Originally Posted by Skyler02 View Post
Once they can no longer staff, and that day is coming much more quickly than they, or anyone, thought, the regional game is done. This flying will go back to mainline.
I doubt that will happen. Incentives will go up, retention bonuses, sign on bonuses and even salaries if needed. They're just trying to milk the game as much as they can before they're forced to pay us what we're worth. It's just a matter of time. You think mainline is going to want to offer a mainline contract with all its perks to a CRJ200 F/O? They're just gonna raise the hourly rate. Cheaper in the long run. Regionals arent going anywhere.....
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Old 12-29-2014, 12:30 PM
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I think you're right to some degree but honestly the flow is a carrot only if you treat it like one. I for one am treating it as something that's nice to have in the back pocket but won't stop me from getting out to the first major that will take me. It's also nice because it's creating attrition at the top of our seniority list, attrition amongst pilots that never would have left otherwise.

It would be interesting to see an airline like United try a different approach to this shortage by signing a hiring agreement with a competitor's contract regional, but honestly I don't think it will happen. I don't think anyone wants to start a war by poaching pilots from each other.
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Old 12-29-2014, 12:31 PM
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You think the big 3 don't have understandings that they won't cannibalize each other's feed providers? Come on now.
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Old 12-29-2014, 12:43 PM
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Flow might be nice to have in your hip pocket...but it doesn't (and shouldn't) stop you from applying to every other major.

Do these new flows preclude the flowees from bypassing flow by applying and getting hired "off the street"?
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Old 12-29-2014, 12:48 PM
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As far as not hiring from the other carrier's regionals, isn't this already happening? The majors are hiring from ALL the regionals. Not just their own. I don't think the numbers are even slanted toward their own regional. It's a free for all. And it's just getting started.
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Old 12-29-2014, 02:20 PM
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Originally Posted by Da40Pilot View Post
I doubt that will happen. Incentives will go up, retention bonuses, sign on bonuses and even salaries if needed. They're just trying to milk the game as much as they can before they're forced to pay us what we're worth. It's just a matter of time. You think mainline is going to want to offer a mainline contract with all its perks to a CRJ200 F/O? They're just gonna raise the hourly rate. Cheaper in the long run. Regionals arent going anywhere.....
....well, yes they are. Will they disappear in 5 years ?

No. But, the increasingly limited number of resources, specifically pilots will result in a regional network 5 years from now, half its present size, but with predominantly 64-76 seat jets. "Incentives" already have gone up with some offering $10,000 bonuses. In that case, it's equivalent to a $11.00/hour raise for new-hires based on 75 hours/month for the first year.

Are pilots climbing over each other to get to regional airlines because of that ?

No.

Sure, they could just keep raising regional F/O pay, but at some point two things happen. First, it would surpass new-hire pay at the legacies and second and more importantly, it would negate the financial benefits of operating the RJ's in the first place. The whole premise of the regional industry is based on providing the flight for cheaper then can be done at the legacy. Once that no longer is applicable, the regional flight either disappears or is placed to where it becomes cheaper to operate...the mainline legacy. In reality, it will be both.

Some flying simply cannot be done profitably by mainline carriers as some routes never could support large enough aircraft that the legacies operate and the smaller aircraft would require too much pay and benefits not just from pilots, but across the board at legacies to make it feasible. This flying will cease. That means many small towns will lose air service altogether forcing its residents to travel by land to farther medium-sized towns or even hub cities. This produces less available seats which drives up prices. Medium-sized cities will see a reduction in air service with less frequency and more limited connecting opportunities which also drive up prices due to less available seats.

But, since there still won't be enough berths at mainline carriers for every pilot who fogs a mirror, some will be available to operate the smaller regional system. If it ever gets to the point where any tom, dick or harriet who wants to be a pilot at a major airline can walk into new-hire training, there will be few pilots left to stay at the regionals and then they disappear entirely. That possibility is at least a decade off and likely far longer then that. In the interim, look for steady contraction with various managements simply burning the furniture to heat the house as well as a lot of asset shuffling and consolidation. That phase is here now and has several more years to go. Most of the legacies don't have major expansion plans right now, so hiring at the rate of retirements is a good ball park figure. In AA's case due to still being in the merger process, full synergy hasn't occurred and there wont be as much opportunity for awhile just as was the case when United/Continental and Delta/Northwest merged. I believe both those carriers hired few, if any pilots during there first few years of merger shake-out.
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Old 12-29-2014, 02:28 PM
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Originally Posted by rickair7777 View Post
Flow might be nice to have in your hip pocket...but it doesn't (and shouldn't) stop you from applying to every other major.

Do these new flows preclude the flowees from bypassing flow by applying and getting hired "off the street"?
you can get hired of the street even if you're in a flow program. The big mistake is that I've seen people that are waiting for the flow so they can keep the company seniority for vacation purposes. I rather lose my vac and start from 0 but at the beginning of the wave.

I've seen Envoy CAs and FOs hired of the street this last year. Now, understand that with 50% of the total hires of the year being envoy pilots + 48 PSA + 36 PDT = less of the street people. I talked to a recruiter and he told me that 5,000 AA pilots have recommended people. The pool of applicants is big and chances are slim to be called, because they just randomly pick people from that pool to interview.
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Old 12-29-2014, 02:39 PM
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Originally Posted by PilotJ3 View Post
you can get hired of the street even if you're in a flow program. The big mistake is that I've seen people that are waiting for the flow so they can keep the company seniority for vacation purposes. I rather lose my vac and start from 0 but at the beginning of the wave.

I've seen Envoy CAs and FOs hired of the street this last year. Now, understand that with 50% of the total hires of the year being envoy pilots + 48 PSA + 36 PDT = less of the street people. I talked to a recruiter and he told me that 5,000 AA pilots have recommended people. The pool of applicants is big and chances are slim to be called, because they just randomly pick people from that pool to interview.
Both Envoy captains and F/O's have been hired off the street at Delta, United and AA this year. They are mixed in at AA with the 20 or other street hires per monthly class which is usually about 50% of the total monthly hiring total. 2015 will likely see about 220 AA flows and an equal street hire number with some being Eagle streeties (20 flows/month for 11 months, and maybe one class in early December). If they go above 40/month total in some months perhaps a bit more. But there is an expected log jam for IOE approaching as thousands of domestic pilots will need 2 legs of International OE and it doesn't matter where the logjam occurs, it's a log jam. That will likely keep hiring modest for most of the year. In 2016, PBS kicks in and then we have a surplus of pilots and that may even stop hiring for awhile, although an undetermined bubble will need to be maintained, but this also means sluggish flow opportunities.
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Old 12-29-2014, 03:00 PM
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Originally Posted by Skyler02 View Post
The Flow Carrot is for Management, Not for Pilots

Please recognize flow as the MANAGEMENT marketing tool that it is. Flow is designed to give management the power to get you into the right seat of THEIR RJ (they are competing desperately for qualified pilots), and keep you there for as long as they can. THAT is their goal, to keep pilots flying in the cheap seats, for as long as possible. They know this regional game is coming to an end, so they are throwing the flow carrots out there in a desperate attempt to recruit. Once they can no longer staff, and that day is coming much more quickly than they, or anyone, thought, the regional game is done. This flying will go back to mainline.

Please realize that for the most part, flow will only slow your career down. Management will decide the order and the speed of you flowing to the mainline. In most cases, that will take years. Donít give management control over your career. They will keep you in the cheap seats as long as they can. Regional managementís survival depends on it and mainline managementís cheap feed depends on it.

In the near future, you will be able to prep for the interview and get to a major on your own much more quickly than any flow is going to get you there. Do not give anything up for flow. You no longer need it. Management is hoping you are still traumatized over the lost decade, and THINK you need it. You donít.

If the regional of your choice happens to offer a flow, thatís great. Itís a good back-up plan if all else fails. But donít let that be a deciding factor.

Some will say Ė ďBut the majors have 10,000 applications on file.Ē Yep. Thatís true. But most of those 10,000 applications are on file at American, Delta, United, Southwest, Alaska, FedEx, UPS, etc. . . . The SAME 10,000 apps are in everywhere. Once the floodgates open, it wonít take long for them to get through those applications.

Lastly, I would say it is almost a detriment for you to join a wholly owned regional with the intention of working for that mainline carrier. As staffing gets more desperate for the regionals, would you, as a mainline manager, prefer to pilfer pilots from your competitorís regional feed, and sink their ship, or cannibalize your own? In a desperate attempt to keep their regional feed alive, they will start taking pilots from their competitorís regionals before they take their own and sink their own ship.

Just my opinion. But, hey, what do I know.
That's actually not true.
We can't staff Envoy but there is a steady stream of people being hired off the street into AA from Envoy.
The same 15 years ago when we were flowing I knew a lot that got hired straight in. Some have connections and some have none.
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