Best Regional(s) in a Bad Economy
 

I'm a 135er exploring making the jump to the 121 world.

I've seen a lot of questions/answers about pay, reserve/upgrade times, bases, flow, QOL, etc. Great things are happening in the regional world (or else I wouldn't be looking). However, from all I can tell there is a given assumption that nothing bad will happen to the economy that would negatively affect regional employment in the near term.

That said, I've never seen this question asked/answered, so here goes....

IF you felt the risk was fairly high that the economy was going to take a hit in the near future and there was a risk of getting furloughed because of your low seniority, what regional would you go to? What regional is likely to best weather an economic downturn and recover from it the fastest?

Obviously, good pay, upgrade times, etc. means squat if one is sitting on furlough. Also, please understand I'm not trying to rain on anyone's good-times, I just want to take the worst-case scenario into consideration as I evaluate all the present job opportunities out there. Thanks.

Colgan or comair

In this order: Chautauqua, American Eagle, Big Sky

As implied by the sarcasm above, there is no right answer to this question. Some might be better than others...but in the regional world the tallest blade of grass seems to get cut first.

Don't forget ACA.

That Airbus idea was pure genius!

I have nothing of value to add.....but the the pure, unbridled sarcasm from the jaded gallery is fantastic......I've been laughing for ten minutes.....

Sorry SqueeG.....it's a rough crowd man. I've been beaten like this recently.....

Just pick one that is close to where you live. They will all hire you. Then in 3 years look back and see if you made a good guess. It's all luck and networking at the regional level. The best become the worst, the worst become the best...repeat, rinse, get out ASAP.

I think if there was a world meltdown the only Reginals left standing will be Skywest because they have so much money they can start their own airline and weather about 30 years of losses. Anything owned by Hulas, Tsa, gojet and compass because they are too cheap to fail. And last but not least, Mesa. Because like cockroaches, they won't go away.

If the econemy were to tank I wouldn't want to be at a regional period

Two things survive a nuclear war... Cockroaches and Mesa.
The lowest cost providers will survive, always.

Envoy is your best bet. They have to flow/hire the pilots before they furlough, plus they have furlough protection.

PSA and PDT do not.

And that DoJet!! Boy that thing can climb!!

Nothing line .66 in the climb to .66 in cruise.... the only jetliner to make the Avro look like the Concorde. :D

I say Great Lakes - they're the only group out there hurting for pilots SO bad that they couldn't manage a furlough if they wanted to.

Do it!!! :)

Find a place where you can accrue seniority the fastest.

Eagle only has furlough protection for those hired before 2 yrs ago I believe. You'd still be hosed there

Essential Air Service

This^^ ...the only furlough protection is pilots beneath you. Go somewhere growing and with a quick upgrade.

To figure out who is upgrading quickly, look for an airline that is adding airframes. The smaller the seniority list the faster you will accumulate relative seniority.
Throw in commutability or bases you would consider moving to for a nebulous amount of time. Health insurance, work rules, flow, equipment, travel benefits, vacation, type of coffee they brew in the training center, type of hotels they typically overnight in, and how many gift cards you get for interviewing. Did I miss anything?

I agree, go to great lakes. They're so short staffed the will hire everyone's furloughs. Get in now before the down turn.

SkyWest has never furloughed, has lots of money in the bank, and the seniority list is moving as fast as any other regional right now. They have more domiciles than most and pay comparable to other top regionals. They've also added contracts with Alaska, United and Delta within the last year.

It's still a regional, not without its own issues, but def one of the better ones. As someone else said, in this business, it's best to choose one where you can live in domicile as commuting, especially to a regional, kinda sucks.

Best of luck in your decision.

Best Regional(s) in a Bad Economy
 

Don't take a way the punch bowl! P/E Ratios of 1:26 are the new normal it's time to buy, buy, buy! Stocks aren't overvalued by 17%, you're just 17% over-pessimistic!

In all seriousness, the impending economic downturn will cause a slowdown in hiring and airline growth, but I can't imagine furloughs are likely given the consistent rate of retirements. Doesn't mean you shouldn't make a calculated move but I think it'll be more disappointment than impending doom for our career stability/mobility when the economy corrects.

Getting a job at a Legacy was nearly impossible from 2002-2010. If you had one there and were junior good chance you were laid off. The flip side to that were the regionals grew like crazy. I upgraded at the beginning of 2004 and haven't made less than $90K a year since then. Beat the unemployment line that many other pilots were in at the time, -or going back to the right seat of a RJ.

Just want to say thank you for the well-intended responses. Wishing each of you a prosperous and safe New Year.

Your assestment from 02-10 is accurate, but to each his own. I always felt anyone staying at a regional is taking the bigger risk long term. Today's darling may be next year's comair. I left my cushy RJ capt seat for a major in 04. And yes, even thought I was furloughed for 18 months, long term I'll come out ahead.

Re: the OP....

George Soros Sees Crisis in Global Markets That Echoes 2008 - Bloomberg Business