JayBee

will there still be a huge need for pilots because of the mandatory retirements or will another round of furloughs ensue ?

who's crystal ball is working ?

Day4mx

Literally no one could know this. Anything is speculation based on nothing more than a w.a.g. thus this question is pointless.

SEPfield

Just my thoughts, but the shortage of pilots willing to work for crap wages is already causing the airlines to streamline and "right size" their operations. Ticket fares are increasing and will increase further as airlines blame the shortage of pilots and increased wages as the reason for increased fares. The increased wages will increase the draw for pilots to join the career field. So when oil does recover the airlines will once again raise fares to compensate. If this somehow results in an abundance of pilots it won't result in furloughs due to the retirement wave, but it may put the airlines in a position to grow their regionals again, which they would love.

hindsight2020

You assume domestic travel demand is inelastic. Assumes facts not in evidence. The flying public is poorer than during pre-deregulation. They are also very price-sensitive. Airlines that don't have international routes to accomplish cost-shifting with, will stagnate when oil does an immelman again. Staffing woes at said airlines will follow. Yes, the retirements is what ameliorates some of these dynamics, whereas in the first decade of the 21st century the demographics just weren't there. Timing and luck.

Best thing anyone can do for an airline career in my opinion? Get on with an airline with heavy international route structure. That's the equivalent to the top floor at the hospital subsidizing the fire sale going on at the ER. The ER is the top floor in your hospital? Better have a different plan for making money or an exit strategy towards a better hospital then.

JayBee

No chit sherlock, crystal ball reference mean nothing to you?
No chit sherlock, crystal ball reference mean nothing to you?not to people who can see past their own nose

just cause i'm feeling churlish

HighFlight

Oil prices will never go back up again.

JayBee

Its like you're in my head....

JayBee

uh, they just went up almost 2% and speculation has it continuing...

and before you say 2% ain't nothing it is everything to airlines buying millions of dollars of fuel...

FirstClass

It won't have an impact. Small 50 seat jets will be on their way out anyway as the pilot pool dwindles.

Thedude

Define, when oil prices recover.
A lot will say that $4.50 was way to high and $1.75 was way too low.