NY Times Article on The Pilot Shortage:
 

The selfishness amongst the parties involved is astounding. The regionals want 250 hours back so they can get pilots who still have their parents paying their bills and are used to the Ramen noodle lifestyle, the aviation colleges are selling the "sweet spot" of @800 hours so they can get cheap/free labor for their instructor corps while still being able to hold themselves out as a "shortcut" to a real airline gig, and some majors are trying to ensure that the costs of any training risks are passed on to the applicant.

With any luck, congress will stick to the Nixon method of denying any changes. For now, at least, it seems that lowering requirements is the third rail of federal aviation safety.

The faa is an organization that has been for years in the back pocket of airline management.

"American airlines has 100 apps on file for every one person they hire." I guess that headline isn't as sexy.

I'll just say that the shortage is not going to get any better as long as the big three are making record profits. There's less a need for us regional guys. Delta announced that they're going to continue reducing the amount of regional flying to bring it back in-house when they went public with the C-Series order. When the big three start loosing profits, they will cut cost, reduce RASM or whatever the heck capacity is, and beef up regionals again.

Yea but how many of those are actually hireable? And at what cost to the regional model that operates 50% of the daily departures of the big three?

When did Delta go public with a C series order? Love to see it but have yet to see a single comment from Delta that they are buying that airframe. They have stated they need 50 additional mainline airframes to cover a shift in RJ flying over the next 4 years.

This is such a joke. The C-series, which is still a rumor, will be MD88 replacements. It's not growth.

The FFD model is dying a slow, painful death. The "majors" are just trying to milk every last penny while it is in it's death throes. Addiction is a terrible thing.

This is so full of bull. The GAO did a survey in 2012 and it showed here are approximately 140,000 rated ATP's, and 105,000 commercial instrument rated pilots that could take the ATP Test. The FAA gave out approximately 6400 ATP certificates in 2012 and that number is trending up.
Including military pilots who are retiring that's about 250,000 pilots that are competing for 72,000 airline jobs.

There is not a pilot shortage. There is a surplus of pilots that don't want to be paid pennies to work at the regionals. BB at Republic blamed the 1500 hour rule when he should be looking to pay his pilots more. Regional first year F/O pay is trending up but is nowhere near where it should be right now.

I'm wondering if there was anything that happened in the years leading up to 2014 that would have had an impact in the number of ATPs issued compared to the decade prior....

Needs moar cowbell.

https://media.giphy.com/media/CMtBKBCUL2tvG/giphy.gif

From the article.....
 

Quote: "Researchers at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University and the University of North Dakota, using training records from 22 regional airlines, found that newly hired pilots with 1,500 or fewer hours tended to need less training and were less likely to drop out than those with hundreds and even thousands more hours.
“The sweet spot is 700 to 800 hours,” said Elizabeth Bjerke, chairwoman of the aviation department of the University of North Dakota and an author of the study. “At that point they have experience but haven’t developed bad habits. It’s not quantity of hours but quality of hours.”
************************************************** **********

So here's a question for ya, Elizabeth Bjerke, (chairwoman of the aviation department of the University of North Dakota):
If 700 - 800 hour "sweet spot" pilots are so superior to more
experienced pilots,........... WHY ARE THE *MAJORS* NOT
CLAMOURING TO HIRE THEM?!?!?!?!?!

It's not a stretch to think that maybe Humpty-Diddle and UND's research may have suffered from some bias(es).

That "research" she is claiming is the biggest bunch of BS ever. :rolleyes:

Yep.

Reminds me of "global warmin"....errrr...."climate change".

More opportunities now, but not even close to a shortage. Riddle Diddle and UND need to justify there existance. Had a few adult bevys with a consultant to Riddle a few years back and he was telling me at that time, that Riddle wants to appeal to other students than just aviation career seeking students. They are one suited and know it. Eventually the market of kids with parents willing to drop $250k will dry up, just like the regionals.

I don't buy the "research "...in my new hired class, there was a couple of riddle guys that needed extra training, A LOT !!!!the only thing they would talk about was how hard Riddle was and how tough the school was compared to the carrier... Confronted one of them one day and asked him, so why you need extra sim. Again!?!..one of the wonders was my sim partner...I tried to help him but he was a pighead...+1 with Slick and Say Alt...nothing against cuz am a riddle guy but the product is not there anymore !!!!!

EXACTLY^^^^^ Netjets won't even look at a pilot unless he has 2500 hours. There's a reason for that and the level of service that their clients demand and the diversity of the flying they do does not lend itself to mentoring the low time pilot.