Washington Dulles
 

It looks like we have picked up quite a bit of Dulles flying come October. Looking at the flight schedules, we will be flying to the following airports from:
SRQ, IND, BTV, PIT, EWR, SDF, CMH, YHZ, ATL, GSO, HSV, YUL, MCI, DTW.

Most of these airports will be daily departures, while a few of them are certain days of the week. It appears that all of these routes are currently flown by Mesa on the CRJ 700 & E175. It will be interesting to see what United does down the road as it appears they have began to shift their regional flying around.

Yup, posted the same thing, although in the DL growth thread. The IAD flying even doubles in November, so it definitely appears as if UA is shuffling regionals. Maybe Mesa’s contract didn’t get renewed? Who knows.

Based on block hours, our UA flying grew about 3.3% month-to-month between September and October. It's not a lot, but it's also not nothing.

Did block hours shrink at any hub?

While it’s not a lot, it is a lot considering this is when block hours historically decrease


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So is this bad news for Mesa or...

Not at this point. We haven’t reduced our flying, just got it shifted.

Does this have anything to do with them continuing to ground the 737 Max? (Therefore requiring a system wide shuffle of flights to various regionals)

October typically has higher block hours.

Washington Dulles
 

Really? I thought it decreased until November. Then an uptick. OCT 2018 56940 block hours OCT 2019 60441 block hours.


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While it is airline specific in general October for US airlines show more block hours than September and November.
I’m not saying you aren’t flying (and covering) more hours than you were planning I’m simply speaking in generalities.

Where did your flying shift to?

Hasn't United not signed a new contract with Mesa yet? Could this be the first ripples from the fallout of that?

As a matter of fact, we are starting to operate out of IAH in the 700 starting October, so that explains it....

Maybe United is consolidating regionals by region? Kind of what Delta is already doing?

Seems like just the opposite with us entering another hub.

Exactly. United has no plan whatsoever for its regionals, other than status quo.

Whipsaw is their only plan. It’s going to end up hurting them. Delta is killing it and they don’t have to whipsaw into oblivion.


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Delta has shrunk the numbers of Connection regionals significantly. American is still in the process of doing that and consolidating flying to its wholly-owned regionals. United is the unknown at this point. I’m sure much of it will hinge on their discussions with the pilots over scope.

I don’t see American going completely to WO regionals. I think Republic will stick around since AA has a stake in them. Oh and the fact that envoy could never staff the airplanes we have.


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Nobody believes that.

Why not? It’s been happening for several years now. Eagle will most likely end up being Envoy, PSA, Piedmont, Republic, and SkyWest when it’s all said and done.

That's a very different statement to:

I think most everyone would agree Mesa and Compass won't be a part of AA's plans going forward. But that's really what you've said. This isn't some enormous shift of the status quo. This is basically MQ, OH, and OO taking over the YV DFW flying, and some combination of OO and MQ taking over the CP and YV LAX/PHX flying.

YX and OO will still be a substantial part of American's regional lift going forward. It's virtually impossible to see any other possibility at this point.

I agree with that and I’ve held that belief (and posted it here) for a long time.

Fair enough! We're seeing the same things.