Hiring freeze incoming?
 

Word is 11/1 class cancelled indefinitely. Making room for CA upgrades? Training center opening? Too many FO’s sitting on reserve not flying for 90/hr? Or the infamous BB shrink to profitability

Literally all of the above.

Hire till you fire/furlough :rolleyes:

Optimal scheduling USED TO require about 52% CAs and 48% FOs because CAs were older had more seniority, took more sick leave, had more vacation, knew how to use the system for more soft pay and less flying, etc. With how quickly CAs get offers from majors these days, a 50-50 mix would probably work fine.

But you can’t fly an FO a single hour more than you have a CA in the left seat to support it, hence Skywest is now forcing upgrades on FOs with 1000 121 hours and DECs can grab big bonuses and name their own bases in much of the regional world, because the regional CA shortage is upon us.

The more FOs that are hired, the fewer hours they will average when your supply of CAs is limited, and the slower those FOs will themselves gain experience and qualify for upgrade and the fewer CAs the company will have.

It isn’t malice, just math.

I guess the one carrot we have is no JM'ing....

I predict that captains will still leave to their final career destination if they are younger captains with not a lot of seniority. I mean. why not? senior guys will stick around due to their lives being more cemented in their current situation. what hopefully the difference w the new contract is the CA qual'd FO's leaving for LCC's will slow down and they'll now more seriously think of upgrading. Maybe if they're a commuter they'll still leave. I myself can drive 30min to work at the Vatican. Almost CA qual'd. I was gonna bounce to JB but commuting to JFK isn't ideal, and with JB you WILL be JFK, or doin redeyes from LAX. nah. Also I thought the legacies plugged the leap frog LCC move loophole in hiring.

another thing. I'm closer to 1001 pilots behind me in seniority. Come 2023 the last place I'd want to be is the bottom of a seniority list.

Assuming the regionals survive, I’d agree. But survival of the regionals is no slam-dunk either. Real risks no matter what path one takes. Good luck either way.

I’m confused, you guys just agreed to a huge pay raise in order to attract enough pilots, then immediately stopped hiring? That seems…odd

You assume there’s a plan. There is no plan. I agree with excargodog - it’s coming to mesa too. We have enough FOs to upgrade to be at about 75 pct capacity. Once those are finished we are stuck until we get enough FOs eligible and willing to upgrade. Forced upgrade is coming everywhere. This is all a result of the unsteady pipeline as a result of covid. It’ll take a few years for the ripples to stop. Mainline absorbing regionals won’t cure it.

Fingers crossed hoping my Dec 6th class is still happening.

I’ve been advising people for awhile to go to any regional where you could fly your butt off. Anyone who has actually accumulated 950 hours of 121 time is currently a prized commodity, a “near-DEC” (and some places as low as 750). And those people will soon be able to name their own base, pick up a $100K bonus, and continue to fly their butts off at the new CA rates until hired at the next level.

Because a deficiency of regional CAs was the predictable result of the early retirements (and age- forced retirements) of so many senior pilots from the Big Four once flying restarted so abruptly. Regional CAs have become the limiting factor in the whole supply chain and that will likely last until the accelerated hiring at the majors is stopped, either by recession or by the majors themselves developing a surplus of FOs. It is a uniquely regional problem, caused by the 1000 hour upgrade requirement and the seniority system and one management has NEVER had to deal with before.