JohnBurke

Welcome. You'll find the addiction to be a money pit into which all your belongings quickly go. Enjoy the ride.

The industry will be a different one by the time you finish training and become eligible, at some point, to begin sending applications. What is going on today, won't be the same tomorrow.

The industry is already beginning to slow. That doesn't mean the end of anything, but there's a decided slowdown, which is expected, and normal.

Azpilot06

Congratulations on the two least expensive days you’ll ever have in aviation.

Pilsung

How much do LCA’s make at Republic?

QRH Bingo

+ $55/hr. override.

Jasons

I received a CJO from Republic. I also received CJO from other airlines. Airline Republic's contract is burdensome, but the reason I keep considering this is because Republic has a base where I live. And they confirmed the class schedule at the time I wanted. Other airlines require as little as two to three months of waiting.

My ultimate goal is to go to Legacy Airlines. Would it be too much of a delay if I worked for a regional airline for 4 to 5 years? Even if I choose another regional airline, move directly to Major, and go to Legacy from there, I will eventually need more than two years to consider the training period and fill 1000 hr(turbine). And If I can't move to a major quickly, I'd rather get a 100K bonus from Republic. I'd like some advice.

FlyinCat

I do think it’s too much of a delay. Most of the hiring frenzy will be over or at least on the decline in the next five years. You’ll be better off considering signing the contract, then paying them to break it and getting to a legacy as soon as you can.

LoneStar32

The Legacy airlines may still be hiring in 5 years, the retirements guarantee that. But soon after that the hiring will slow down to a trickle. With so many people hired already, especially young people, that means those hired at the end of this decade will be the next batch of 20-year FOs.

Bricky

The legacies will be hiring in 5 years. And in 10 years. And so on.

Yes, the contract sucks. Make the most of it and get you're hours as soon as possible and get out or make some 6 figure money, get your type and get out and pay the fee.

Btw no one knows how the outcome of the lawsuit in the contract will turn out.

And if you have a class date elsewhere, unless it's Mesa, take it.

QRH Bingo

What do you got against Mesa?

Jdub2

You are right that nobody knows the future, Bricky. This is aimed at people that are on the fence, not at you specifically.

What we do know as incontrovertible facts are hiring rates and retirement rates, and we know an instantaneous snapshot of what career progression looks like at this point in time. So let’s do an example.

today, maybe not tomorrow, but today you can stay at a regional for four or five months, get one or two hundred hours and go to Spirit or Jetblue for six months and get another two hundred hours, and then get to a legacy. That is possible today.

Today and for the next thirty years Delta, for example, is retiring an average of three to four hundred pilots a year. The odds are so vastly slim that we retire more than that. In fact, odds are we actually retire slightly less over the same time frame due to age 67 passing. Not a sure bet, but the odds are retirements will be slower not faster.

Right now we are hiring 200 a month. That means that, assuming a optimistic 400 a year retirement rate, every month you delay is half a year of seniority and half a year that you will have to wait longer in order to upgrade, or hold a line, or get weekends off, or get the vacation you want. In the three and a half years it “optimistically” takes for you to fulfill the contract, we will be done hiring en mass. We will be retiring 400 a year and hiring four hundred a year, so your seniority will creep along. That’s hiring 35 a month. But we won’t interview 50 a month, to avoid letting people down. We will still interview 360 a month so we can have our pick of the best, by whatever arbitrary method we can use to help whittle down 90% of applicants again. Just like old times.

And if you are lucky enough to get an interview invite, because now you need 3000 TPIC to be competitive, (again) and if you are just plain unlucky and don’t get the job, well now you have to wait an unknown amount of time to have one finial crack at the job before you are turned down for life.

this is what is likely to happen. It doesn’t mean that it will, just that it would take a lot of good fortune to not happen. This is all about the odds. And this is the Faustian Bargain of this contract. The immense opportunity cost of accepting a slightly smaller delay up front for years of delay on the back end