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-   -   Germanwings pilot not cause of crash (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/safety/149787-germanwings-pilot-not-cause-crash.html)

aaatwood 03-14-2025 08:44 AM

Germanwings pilot not cause of crash
 
Simon Hradecky has done some pretty good detective work here.

https://www.avherald.com/h?article=483a5651/0164&opt=0

rickair7777 03-14-2025 09:08 AM

Interesting.

But what are the odds that all these things happened at the same time?

1. Pilot out of cockpit.
2. Pilot Sudden Incap.
3. Keypad Fails.
4. FCU fails.


Only way that smells plausible is if Germanwings (aka Lufthansa) had REALLY bad MX processes and REALLY bad safety culture.

If my ALT selector spun itself down by a large number (as opposed to 100 feet on either side of the detent), I'd have either diverted, or written it up and refused to fly it until fixed (depending on conditions at the destiantion).

Are the Euro safety agencies trying to protect their industry and corporate interests, ie scapegoat a pilot? That's more plausible I suppose.

BoilerUP 03-14-2025 09:22 AM

Source: "Trust me bro, the government experts are WRONG"

CGLimits 03-14-2025 12:33 PM


Originally Posted by rickair7777 (Post 3892947)
Interesting.

But what are the odds that all these things happened at the same time?

1. Pilot out of cockpit.
2. Pilot Sudden Incap.
3. Keypad Fails.
4. FCU fails.


Only way that smells plausible is if Germanwings (aka Lufthansa) had REALLY bad MX processes and REALLY bad safety culture.

If my ALT selector spun itself down by a large number (as opposed to 100 feet on either side of the detent), I'd have either diverted, or written it up and refused to fly it until fixed (depending on conditions at the destiantion).

Are the Euro safety agencies trying to protect their industry and corporate interests, ie scapegoat a pilot? That's more plausible I suppose.

Well, that’s how most accidents happen. It’s not just one thing. It’s a perfect storm, a chain of errors. Break one link of the chain and there is no accident. There are a lot of question marks. I actually have seen the A320 FCU dial a different altitude all by itself once.

This whole thing is a perfect example of why I am a fan of the NTSB and the way they do things, instead of having the court system investigate accidents. They had made a decision two days after the accident.

DeltaboundRedux 03-14-2025 01:59 PM

Here's a reasonably good article that was published in 2015. Mental Health Issues

TLDR; The man had a well documented history of mental health problems (depression and probably schizophrenia).

While he reported and was treated for his inital diagnosis to his employer, in his last few months alive he took actions that suggested he was having a relapse that was probably going to ground him forever.

This included a subset of schizophrenia where the person believes they're going blind even when there is nothing physically wrong with their eyesight; he was seeing doctors for both vision problems and depression without reporting it to the German equivalent of their aeromedical authority.

While not reported as such in the cited article, he also had a nickname from other pilots that was a slur about being a closeted homosexual.

According to the cited article, two different doctors had ruled him "unfit for work." But this was never directly reported to the airline.

rickair7777 03-14-2025 02:35 PM

Yes, his medical history clearly adds to the weight of the official conclusions.

rickair7777 03-14-2025 02:37 PM


Originally Posted by CGLimits (Post 3893058)
Well, that’s how most accidents happen. It’s not just one thing. It’s a perfect storm, a chain of errors. Break one link of the chain and there is no accident. There are a lot of question marks. I actually have seen the A320 FCU dial a different altitude all by itself once.

Did you write it up?

Did the ALT knob also pull itself immediately after?




Originally Posted by CGLimits (Post 3893058)
This whole thing is a perfect example of why I am a fan of the NTSB and the way they do things, instead of having the court system investigate accidents. They had made a decision two days after the accident.

I agree with that, prosectors naturally see anything and everything as a crime.

CGLimits 03-14-2025 04:03 PM


Originally Posted by rickair7777 (Post 3893118)
Did you write it up?

Did the ALT knob also pull itself immediately after?





I agree with that, prosectors naturally see anything and everything as a crime.

Of course we wrote it up.

CGLimits 03-14-2025 04:11 PM


Originally Posted by rickair7777 (Post 3893116)
Yes, his medical history clearly adds to the weight of the official conclusions.

Except, according to this article, there may be evidence suggesting the investigators concluded the wrong pilot stepped out of the flight deck. So if indeed the captain was the one at the controls, and the first officer stuck outside, then all his mental health issues are completely irrelevant to the crash.

Stan446 03-14-2025 06:58 PM


Originally Posted by CGLimits (Post 3893150)
Except, according to this article, there may be evidence suggesting the investigators concluded the wrong pilot stepped out of the flight deck. So if indeed the captain was the one at the controls, and the first officer stuck outside, then all his mental health issues are completely irrelevant to the crash.

I think were they found the bodies in the crash would tell who was flying.


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