Is there really a pilot shortage ?

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Quote: I'm glad mgmt perceived the pilot group as not getting their vacation so instead they call in sick or fatigued. Real Nice
It's true, it's termed cellular schedule enhancement. Or SSD, scheduled sick day, is when you get the PBS "award" and decide, that, that day, this day, and that 2 day are scheduled for a mental health sick call. When the company decides to expand the base 100% and actually decreases the vacation weeks available, thanks Anita!
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Is there a shortage of pilot applicants for the major pax and cargo airlines? No.

Is there a shortage of pilot applicants for the LCCs (Spirit, Allegiant, JB, SWA, etc)? No.

Is there a shortage of pilot applicants for well-regarded Pt 135 and Pt 91 operators? No.

Is there a shortage of pilot applicants for the regionals? I guess it depends on the regional, and it also depends on how you define 'shortage'. Skywest, for example, is having no trouble filling classes. When I interviewed with 6 other guys, only 2 of us received offers. The 4 other guys all had clean records, relatively high time for regional applicants (avg. 3,500 hours), and a good mix of experience. So I'd say that it doesn't appear that OO is hurting for applicants, given that they don't seem to have lowered their standards one bit.

Neither does it seem that Horizon or Compass are hurting. That may not be the case at other regionals...a buddy of mine interviewed recently at SKW and actually was collared by a Mesa recruiter in the Candlewood parking lot as he headed to the shuttle to his SKW interview (I thought that was an urban legend until it happened to a guy I know.)

I think the reality is that there are thousands of seasoned ATPs with significant amounts of flight time who are currently employed in non-aviation fields, but who would return to the 121 world if the pay was better at the regionals.

So is this a pilot shortage? I don't think so. I think what we're seeing is that instead of 10 applicants for every 1 FO slot, there might be 5 applicants for every 1 FO slot.

Then again, I'm not a recruiter for any airline, so I don't live and breathe that world. So my post is worth only what you paid for it
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Quote: Is there a shortage of pilot applicants for the major pax and cargo airlines? No.

Is there a shortage of pilot applicants for the LCCs (Spirit, Allegiant, JB, SWA, etc)? No.

Is there a shortage of pilot applicants for well-regarded Pt 135 and Pt 91 operators? No.

Is there a shortage of pilot applicants for the regionals? I guess it depends on the regional, and it also depends on how you define 'shortage'. Skywest, for example, is having no trouble filling classes. When I interviewed with 6 other guys, only 2 of us received offers. The 4 other guys all had clean records, relatively high time for regional applicants (avg. 3,500 hours), and a good mix of experience. So I'd say that it doesn't appear that OO is hurting for applicants, given that they don't seem to have lowered their standards one bit.

Neither does it seem that Horizon or Compass are hurting. That may not be the case at other regionals...a buddy of mine interviewed recently at SKW and actually was collared by a Mesa recruiter in the Candlewood parking lot as he headed to the shuttle to his SKW interview (I thought that was an urban legend until it happened to a guy I know.)

I think the reality is that there are thousands of seasoned ATPs with significant amounts of flight time who are currently employed in non-aviation fields, but who would return to the 121 world if the pay was better at the regionals.

So is this a pilot shortage? I don't think so. I think what we're seeing is that instead of 10 applicants for every 1 FO slot, there might be 5 applicants for every 1 FO slot.

Then again, I'm not a recruiter for any airline, so I don't live and breathe that world. So my post is worth only what you paid for it
I thought that was legend too, until I heard about it from multiple sources!!
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If those "thousands of seasoned ATPs" return to the 121 world, it won't be at regionals. It'll be at the major/legacy or top-flight Gen Av operators just because of being seasoned.

GF
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Quote: If those "thousands of seasoned ATPs" return to the 121 world, it won't be at regionals. It'll be at the major/legacy or top-flight Gen Av operators just because of being seasoned.

GF
And jump over the entire crop of experienced, currently working regional pilots? I can't see the shadow pilot community (yes thousands) coming back to the flying biz at all. They worked, they left, they're gone for good. That doesn't mean a shortage of workers will ever be felt at the regionals either. We still get regular rumors here that even the lowest bottom feeder can fill classes each month.
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Quote: Slumav505, it gets better, the log book was last seen at the flight school, I used for my atp, the examiner gave it back to the front desk, noticing I had left it on his desk, so my 8710 matches my current book, bottom line is if there was a real shortage the regionals would be this picky, now keep in mind not all are.
I have my old 141 records at my house, and had the chief pilot sign an affidavit that my time there was accurate. I printed my rental receipts and have them down stairs as well. Now that i have more than I need it's not a huge issue. This happened right around 200 hours. After that is when I went digital. I just switched to LogTen. I can just print a logbook from there.
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Quote: Yepper. Just look at TSA in the early 90s.
The TSA was created as part of the Aviation and Transportation Security Act, sponsored by Don Young in the United States House of Representatives[2] and Ernest Hollings in the Senate,[3] passed by the 107th U.S. Congress, and signed into law by President George W. Bush on November 19, 2001. Originally part of the United States Department of Transportation, the TSA was moved to the Department of Homeland Security on March 9, 2003.
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Quote: The TSA was created as part of the Aviation and Transportation Security Act, sponsored by Don Young in the United States House of Representatives[2] and Ernest Hollings in the Senate,[3] passed by the 107th U.S. Congress, and signed into law by President George W. Bush on November 19, 2001. Originally part of the United States Department of Transportation, the TSA was moved to the Department of Homeland Security on March 9, 2003.
^^^^^ ha ha, you're funny.
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Quote:
The better market forecasters do not predict a pilot shortage in the next ten to twenty years.
Boeing and Airbus do not agree with you. They are VERY worried about a shortage. That is why Boeing was very big at EAA with the rollout of their new pilot training system via Jeppesen, to train pilots for the non-American airlines (it does not train guys thru the ATP, so that is why they are targeting non-American airlines).

Just talked to a new-hire who came from Horizon. I also thought that Horizon was doing good for staffing. She said the staffing situation was critical there-very short.

Many people do not see the shortage, no surprise there.

For guys at regionals that want to leave, and are having trouble getting to a higher paying job, I recommend looking overseas. There are LOTS of high paying jobs begging for pilots.

My airline (Atlas) has reduced their minimums four times in the last 4 years. Why would they do that, if there are massive numbers of excess pilots?

My prediction for the future is that the majors will hire guys off the street, with 0 pilot experience (or very little, like only a PPL), or they will either loan money to people to complete their training, or they will guarantee the loans for people to complete their training.
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Boeing and Airbus, like Kenworth, need to sell machines. Good economy or not, if no drivers exist for their machines, they are kinda f-ed. So the non-USA places, it may serve to "generate awareness" of a lack of pilots.

Again, shortage of applicants at the USA majors or highly-desired corporate departments (Union Pacific, USAA, etc) ? Not gonna happen.
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