If I got hired at 40, would getting your desired airframe be 99% chance? Or lower?

What age is the min guess for 99% certainty? 45? 35?

I guess the median would probably be close to the 99% certainty. I guess that one interest me the most. The others are mere curiosity.

New hire….if that wasn’t clear. I can’t edit the title.

You have 2 choices, Bus or 73. They pretty evenly split the classes. If you're 40 you'll be in the top third and will get the jet you want with good odds on the base too. If not, take the jet and bid to the base you want. You'll be there in less than 4 months

As was said, you’re getting the bus or 737, the seat lock is only 6 months for a new hire (can be withheld for a year though). You will likely be at the base you want within 6 months. If you want BOS or ORD, choose the 737. PHL or PHX Airbus. Any other…choose the one you want. 6 to 18 months commuting or on the plane you don’t want is a drop in the bucket of a 25 year career.

You will have zero problem getting your choice of the 73 or Bus. The rest will be dependent on the drop and what's available bit you should be picking towards the top of the pack. 👍