Thanks for posting this chirrut, it really is appreciated.

And yup, I know it's akin to shaking a Magic 8 Ball, but were the folks bidding ORD FO given any inkling as to how long it might be before they could upgrade, AND hold ORD?

Many thanks again.

Is DCL growing that massively, or is this to mostly offset attrition of senior guys to flow and OAL hiring?

DCL is still not growing. It MAY if they get all the 145 guys transitioned over, but I still think it’s bleeding out as fast as they are hanging the life support transfusion. Their may be a bit of reprieve with no flow in January, but I think stifling the flow will back fire on them and encourage more to get out anywhere else while they can.

I honestly think this hiring only/primarily DECs will bite them as well. I think the majority will bail to greener pastures before the next two years. I know there was one guy who didn’t even get halfway through consolidation and punched. They realize the level of suck and just how far off most of that bonus money really is.

That begs the questions that many have been wondering. Are those FOs “highly qualified” but not at the mins for captain, or were they allowing those that wanted to sit right set for a while to get the feel of the company and or plane before being forced to the left seat? Or did they actually throw some cadets or other off the street FOs in the class?

The next vacancy will be more telling but as of right now the junior ORD CA is a 10/2018 hire.

i dont know anyone in their right mind who would even tolerate bottom of reserve for a LONG time while all other FO’s on property get forced upgrade. Specially getting junior manned cause those are the ones that will get called first. At least a line holder can try to hide, when you’re reserve u HAVE to check your hi3 once u get back in case they added trips to your sxhedule. hard pass for me.

During the interview we were told the plan is to hire 500 more DECs next year. Those of us coming in now will have a bit of a buffer built below us if that's the case.

Also there are a lot FOs heading to the LLCs before or during upgrade.

The truth is nobody knows how the seniority will play out. As has been said before, when the flow first started years ago we were told every pilot on the American Eagle list would be at AA in 5 years.

Yes, just like any wave, if you are on the front side you will be better off, I just don’t think that wave will really be that big.

I think that “plan” to hire 500 DECs is very much more wishful thinking to hire that many. With everyone one else sweeting their pot, the new golden contract doesn’t shine near as bright anymore. Sure, just like always and I have said this many times, Envoy works for SOME, but I just don’t think it will lure that many.

And being told flow was five years proves my point. It’s not contractual. There is NOTHING Envoy can do to make that happen and in fact they just did something that makes it 25 percent longer.

I d be shocked if they were able to hire, and retain 500 DEC in a year... that's nearly a third of the seniority list.

Yeah. The other issue is just total numbers that can be hired and trained. That’s an average of 42 per month which has been pretty close to the max sustained capacity Envoy can hire. That was pre hemorrhage of instructors. Those numbers imply nearly zero other new hires. That would be hugely problematic. They are running off potential FOs before they even get to the company.