AA has 3 times as many pilots as FDX. So percentage wise the retirements are probably pretty similar.

As for retiring planes. It’ll happen, just like it happens at all Airlines

You realize that AA has 15000 pilots and FedEx has 5000? Thus 450 retirements/hires at FedEx would be the equivalent of 1350 at AA? Right?

Again, I don’t think FedEx will continue at the pace they’ve been, and AA looks as though they will have to start going crazy with hiring... but one should compare with a similar scope.

Fedex even at it’s peak will not retire 450/yr. The peak years seem to be 2023-2028, between 200 and 250 retirements per year. That is approx 4% at PEAK years. Yes, AA has 15k pilots, 800/yr steadily for the next 10+ years is over 5% every year. That is what I am referring to.

I did the math when I got my Fedex invite. The retirement percentages by year are pretty darn close. If I remember correctly, AA has 5% more retirements scheduled over the next 10 years v Fedex. But, I am sure growth at Fedex will be greater. If I was younger I would have went to the interview (Fedex is a more stable company for sure). I love AA though so it is a win for me.

This may seem trivial but for me the ability to get up whenever I want as often as I want is HUGE.

Get up to hit the head, 15 min later get up and grab some drinks, 30 min later get up and walk around for a few min. It makes any flight (day or night) way less fatiguing.

Not that I would base a career decision over access to the crapper but....

All forecasting based on retirements is shaky at best. Knowing that will never stop a pilot from doing so, but only embolden them to double down on it, I’ll say this. Block hours drive Manning at all airlines/freight companies, but there are greater fluctuations at pax carriers during the down times than at FDX/UPS type companies.

In those times, both types of carriers use those retirements to absorb any block hour reduction and hopefully avoid a furlough. United is only about 1800 pilots bigger now than it was in 2001. American’s 15000 pilots are nowhere near the sum of their pilots, plus America West, TWA, and UsAirways in 2001. I’d bet that total would be in the 20,000 neighborhood and I might be a little low there. Things shouldn’t get that dramatic again with so much consolidation already done, but it wouldn’t be anomalous to see them use a couple years of retirements to facilitate short term shrinkage again. Especially if they pull down a significant amount of augmented flying which is always a manning disaster. Cargo is definitely not immune to it, it’s just not as dramatic just as the upward movement years typically aren’t as dramatic either.


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There have been several recent bankruptcies in this sector and the raising of prices for tickets and checked bags,and the capacity and route trimming is signaling preparation for what's coming.

WTI is trading at $75.56 and Brent is at $84.82 and there are prognostications it may go to $100+ before the end of the year.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Pric...ssibility.html

What does all of that mean to predictions about hiring? I don't think anyone can say for sure, but its important to consider don't ya think?
Both companies will not be effected in the same manner and that represents a distinct point in favor of Fedex.

The Fedex management team has placed renewed and vigorous focus on fuel savings on both the operational side and the equipment side. While it causes changes for the crewforce it should give everyone here a warm fuzzy to know that they're doing what it takes to get ready so that the company can remain competitive.

Funny you say this... this is big for me. On the 75 now, but when I was on the 777 I'd get up every 45 minutes or so to pee or stretch. I'd drink a lot of water on those flights. I have a couple of buds at SWA and on their flights they tell me that they're either purposely dehydrating themselves before the flight or just "holding it" as long as they can in order to not have to do the whole process of opening the cockpit door.

Like you said, I wouldn't have that be my deciding factor in an airline career choice, but man, is it nice.