03-07-2022Quote:
Let’s just talk about a couple of issues, sensitivity and specificity. Sensitivity is how reliable the test is at picking up a positive result if it is really there. Specificity is how reliable the test is at telling you that a negative result is truly a negative result, essentially, how accurate at avoiding false positives. Well guess what, you only get to pick one, and the rest is essentially mathematical - through something called Conditional Probability. Read up on Bayes Theorem.
You ADJUST your test depending on which you are after, but you don’t get both. You want to not miss a single case of COVID, even if you get a lot of false positives? Just crank up the amplifications on the PCR. You want to not get a lot of false positives? Crank down the amplification. You may miss a lot of mild or asymptomatic cases, but the ones you get will be for damn SURE positive.
Now what you are REALLY after is something called Predictive Value Positive (the probability that a test positive is a true positive) and the Predictive Value Negative (the probability that a test negative is a true negative). Well guess what? Pick one.
But it’s even worse than that, because even if you could get everybody to agree on the same specificity and sensitivity (and you can’t), the PVP and PVN VARIES depending on disease prevalence (again, see an online explanation of Bayes Theorem), which you don’t actually know with certainty or you wouldn’t be testing for it in the first place.
All of which makes the dogmatism by both sides on COVID laughable. MOST of those most adamant do not know what the h€|| they are talking about and that is WHY they are so adamant. Most of those who do understand, realize it’s far more nuanced than either side knows or cares about. And some - on both sides - who do understand are purposely exaggerating the story to push their preferred way of dealing with it.
But basically, you aren’t wrong. Eventually this WILL burn out. Vaccines have their place but they won’t SOLVE the problem. The only human pathogenic virus to ever be wiped out by vaccination was smallpox and that was much less contagious, had a far longer lasting vaccine, and still took 180 years to eliminate.
The pox had no animal repository for it to hide in like the adenos and coronas do. Much immunity also occured naturally, same as polio.Originally Posted by Excargodog
ANTIBODY TESTING: It too is a gray area and has nuance. There is an old saying in military procurement: Fast, cheap, reliable… pick two. Antibody testing is sort of like that, but probably worse.Let’s just talk about a couple of issues, sensitivity and specificity. Sensitivity is how reliable the test is at picking up a positive result if it is really there. Specificity is how reliable the test is at telling you that a negative result is truly a negative result, essentially, how accurate at avoiding false positives. Well guess what, you only get to pick one, and the rest is essentially mathematical - through something called Conditional Probability. Read up on Bayes Theorem.
You ADJUST your test depending on which you are after, but you don’t get both. You want to not miss a single case of COVID, even if you get a lot of false positives? Just crank up the amplifications on the PCR. You want to not get a lot of false positives? Crank down the amplification. You may miss a lot of mild or asymptomatic cases, but the ones you get will be for damn SURE positive.
Now what you are REALLY after is something called Predictive Value Positive (the probability that a test positive is a true positive) and the Predictive Value Negative (the probability that a test negative is a true negative). Well guess what? Pick one.
But it’s even worse than that, because even if you could get everybody to agree on the same specificity and sensitivity (and you can’t), the PVP and PVN VARIES depending on disease prevalence (again, see an online explanation of Bayes Theorem), which you don’t actually know with certainty or you wouldn’t be testing for it in the first place.
All of which makes the dogmatism by both sides on COVID laughable. MOST of those most adamant do not know what the h€|| they are talking about and that is WHY they are so adamant. Most of those who do understand, realize it’s far more nuanced than either side knows or cares about. And some - on both sides - who do understand are purposely exaggerating the story to push their preferred way of dealing with it.
But basically, you aren’t wrong. Eventually this WILL burn out. Vaccines have their place but they won’t SOLVE the problem. The only human pathogenic virus to ever be wiped out by vaccination was smallpox and that was much less contagious, had a far longer lasting vaccine, and still took 180 years to eliminate.
You know speaking of polio go look up transverse myelitis just to prove how good that jab was.. no more disease if no doc can call it polio anymore
Nuanced as crgo dog says? Yes, a little but the fauci side of this has blown it way out the other galaxy. There is middle ground, many real physicians know what it is. Unfortunately they get banned, muted and "fact checked" into silence.
If you watched any of the FDA hearing video I posted you'd see real doctors telling you truth unlaced with political agenda and bias.
