Yes. But in real-world application there's a balance/trade-off between antibody and memory cell titers. Observing the chemistry in the lab doesn't tell you how that will play out in the real world.

It's playing out as we speak, but I haven't seen anything indicating that vaccine efficacy against infection is waning due to dropping antibody levels. It most likely will eventually, but are we there yet? The large stage-3 trails from last year are still running, you'd think they'd be seeing something by now in those groups?

Jumping the gun on boosters will be very expensive (and profitable to the right people), and is not absolutely zero-risk. Although the risk from boosters is pretty low since the population by definition has already tolerated the vaccine in question once or twice.

I will feel better about boosters when the Pharma companies agree to forego 100% of all profits related to them. Absent that it is clearly just a money grab. And it is disgusting.

Politico says CDC data indicates a “precipitous drop” in efficacy after a fairly short time. Like 6-8 months.

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/0...r-shots-505911

OK, so here's some real-world data reported today:

Israel is reporting that boosters reduce infection significantly in the over-age-60 demographic: 86% and 92% for severe covid.

Not sure if that's baseline over non-vaccinated, or over the original vaccine regimen.

It's not clear (and they admit it) whether the drop in efficacy was due to antibody decline or delta. Delta is a separate issue.


Article behind the WSJ paywall.

Define “efficacy.”

If by efficacy you mean resistance to reinfection, about 9 months would be consistent with what happens with the other four common human coronaviruses that cause (in most people) simple colds. In those four coronaviruses, which we have pretty much all already had, ~9 months after your last cold the circulating antibodies decrease to the extent that you can be reinfected and have another cold which spikes your antibody level for another 9 months, wash. rinse, and repeat, with the only kicker being that an infection with one of the other three common coronaviruses might give your immunity to the first one a variable degree of boost.

Which doesn’t mean these other common coronaviruses can’t kill you too, if you are sufficiently old with enough comorbidities, or are otherwise immunosuppressed.

https://www.atsjournals.org/doi/10.1....201506-1239LE

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-83987-3

https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics...ronavirus-229e

Reuters with recent study info on declining effectiveness.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/c...195903311.html

And yet, still no official credit given for past infection and recovery. More info every day that natural immunity is more durable and effective than some thought. That may be changing. George Mason University law professor makes the case.

https://m.washingtontimes.com/news/2...-mandate-exem/

Booster debate...

https://www.foxnews.com/health/us-co...xperts-divided

https://www.reuters.com/business/hea...ve-2021-08-19/

Israel has found that severe breakthroughs are occurring in patients who are both old and in poor health.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle...er-2021-08-20/

So vaccine utility in preventing hospitalization and death is still holding up.

I will not be taking any booster shots! I didn't sign up for endless injections!

i presume you get boosters every ten years for yellow fever, tetanus, flu.