I know they say you can never predict this industry, but is the hiring way likely over in say 4-5 years. I’m starting training at US Aviation when I get back home from a TDY. I figure it will take me at least 2 - 3 years to get qualifications and build hours.

I’m currently 39, say I’m 43 by the time I hit a regional will I have a chance at a ULCC or major by the time I’m 50? I know I’ll never be a wide body captan at AA, Delta, or United making 300-500k and I’m ok with that. However I’ve love to spend the last 5 years at a ULCC making the max pay. The way things look from you POV, what would you say?

The unprecedented peak retirements taper off a bit after about five years or so, but after that there are still PLENTY of retirements by normal industry historical standards, I think into mid 2030's.

So I'd do everything possible to progress quickly now while all of the movement is occurring just so you don't miss any opportunities. That might include incurring debt which most of us would recommend against in normal times.

Also the retirements will benefit you as a CFI and regional pilot, due to more available students, high job availability, bonuses, and rapid progression in the regional ranks.

But as you said, there's always the possibility of a (another) black swan...

I thought we established that the black swan only shows up in years that end in a zero, give or take a year.

So we’re good now until 2029.

2029-2031, buckle up.

I thought black swans show up on days that end in “y”.