Hi,

I’m evaluating aviation as a career path, but I’ve got serious concerns about the state of the job market. It feels a lot like wages right now are artificially inflated and that as the economy continues to contract the bubble will eventually burst. If that’s true, it seems an awful lot like someone entering commercial aviation in the next few years is going to be looking down the barrel of furloughs, lower wages, and potentially a contraction aggravated by some other concerns such as automation.

Is this too pessimistic? With the downsizing at UPS I am having some serious second thoughts about betting my career on flying.

Too pessimistic. Massive retirement numbers don't lie unless there's a major black swan that changes the world economy forever (nuclear war, asteroid impact).

After about mid 2030's things will return to normal-ish but even there's still projected global growth in air travel. I guess carbon could be an issue if the greta's get their way. When I started out in the 90's I was worried about peak oil, which math said was real, but they powered out of that with technological advances in production. Hopefully they'll do the same with carbon, and they are certainly already trying.

If you get to a major and move up expeditiously for 3-5 years, you're probably set for life, and above the furlough line. This is a rare opportunity and has never happened to this degree in the industry before. Just to put it in perspective.