Let’s see if we can keep this thread on point.
This is my personal opinion. I do not claim to any inside knowledge or special powers. There are too many variables to consider (age 60, Supp W arbitration, deferral/acceptance rate, growth or lack of, recall rate, contract negotiations, the economy, star and planet alignments, etc.). Right now a snapshot indicates roughly a 50% acceptance rate. So you can sit down, do the math (Stat’s provided below) and stick in all the different variable and end up going crazy. So if you run the numbers you will notice that it’s taken 10 months to offer recall to 914 pilots (20-30 per class until Oct, which was increased to 50 per class). With 1,916 pilots not yet offered recall (the 11/07 class has not been filled and slated for 50), and if I had to take a wag I would guess hiring of the street may start around early 2009. Hiring from the street with pilots still furloughed is a possibility as long as all of the remaining furloughed pilots have deferred recall. Which brings up another possibility, you can be a new hire and not see much seniority movement since you may have furloughed pilots returning from deferred status above you. The good news is if your young and can get hired, seniority movement will not be too bad since the average AA pilot age is mid to upper 40’s.

Recall Stats:
Total fur 2820
Total accepting 452
Total Deferring 451
Undecided 11
Pilots offered recall 914

Remaining 1916
(Not yet offered recall)

SKYHUNGRY

What do you think? Will the % accepting likely increase,or decrease, or remain the same as AA goes further down the furlough list.

Also, when the big day does come. And AA announces that they are street hiring. Does anyone have a guess at what their minimums might be, based on past experience?

Onfinal

I too have no special or inside knowledge. I just work here.

As of this morning our APA webpage says 2,367 furloughed includes those whom have deferred.
146 are on MLOA mil leave of absense.

1,916 not yet offered recall.

I just don't know if they'll keep recalling at 50 a month. I think they will. Will it continue for 2 years? I hope so.

Recallees are getting most anything including 767I FO positions. Beats 4 legs a day on the Super 80.

I think if you're under or close to 30 years old in the future when they start hiring. That you'd have a real good career.

That is if the next contract is good.

I don't want to work 93 hours with 12 days off till 60-65.

How does bypassing work at American?

For instance, at United, they go down the seniority list and offer recall. Then they go back up the list in reverse seniority order. You must either accept or resign your seniority number.

At Delta, I believe, they go down the list and offer recall. You can defer, and as I understand it, you have up to 10 years to come back (correct me if I am wrong).

How does it work at American??
If you bypass and American starts hiring off the street, can you return at anytime?? Do you keep your seniority over the new hires? Are you losing out of years of service as far as pay is concerned, or does that start compounding once you are offered recall?
Thanks.

............

You can bypass for up to 3 years after the most junior person is notified of recall. After that, they start at the bottom of the list and work their way back up. At that point you have to go back or resign. At any point in between, you can notify the company that you want to cancel your deferment, and be assigned the next available class.

EXTW

ryane946,

Cancellation of deferral must be in writing, via US Mail. Pilots will be placed in the next available class after deferral is cancelled, in seniority order. Classes will normally be filled 21 days in advance of the training start date. As far as LOS (length of Service) is concerned, you do not accumulate any time while on furlough. In other words you do not accrue LOS for pay, vacation, benefits, etc. while on furlough (that is the way it is for now, but can be negotiated, it was negotiated for the last furloughed group). I can assure you that if LOS is negotiated for this furloughed group, the time while on deferral will not count since deferral is a voluntary decision.


Skyhungry

not going back!!!

Section 17:3.

Furloughed pilots referred to above who are recalled to the employ of the
Company must respond to such recall in accordance with paragraph 2. above,
provided, however, such recalled pilot may defer return to the active flight
payroll for a period not to exceed twenty-four (24) months from the date of
postmark on the notice of recall or the date the least senior furloughee is
recalled, whichever date comes first, provided further that such deferring pilot
may cancel such deferral, in writing, and become eligible for recall at the next
recall date. When a pilot's deferral period has expired, such pilot will be eligible
for recall and such pilot will be recalled when the needs of the Company
require such recall. Pilots electing to defer their return to the Company in
accordance with the above must notify the Company by telegram, cablegram,
or certified letter, return-receipt-requested, of their decision and length of
requested deferral, within twenty-one (21) days of postmark on their recall
notice. Pilots electing to defer their return to active flight duty will continue
to accrue occupational seniority, but length of service for pay purposes shall
not accrue during such deferral period.

Letter "T" of the CBA extends the deferral to 3 years pass the last recall notice. I've found nothing in the contaract that states "they start at the bottom of the list and work their way back up. At that point you have to go back or resign". If you know where this part is could you tell me where to find it? Thanks

Yes. You could be a new hire and have furloughees come back in front of you. In fact, you could have a new hire class date moved or canceled because a deferral displaces you. There is no recall limit, recall rights last forever.