That's exactly what folks said about hiring at the regionals and majors 5 years ago. There will be retirements, attrition for other reasons, growth at some carriers, etc.

It is a cyclical industry and hiring will happen.

My carrier has about 65 pilots on furlough right now. I am willing to be that less than half will return when recalled. Maybe fewer than 20! Many will have found other jobs, or whatever.

We also heard that the majors were furloughed back 15 years and that there would be no hiring at ANY major for 10+ years.

Hmmmm.... I wonder what happened there. Many majors hired. SWA, DAL, CAL, NWA. United hired and unfortunately had to lay off a bunch of pilots. Even CAL had to furlough unfortunately. But there was a bunch of hiring.

It'll happen again.

I have heard through the rumor mill that even my own carrier has tentative plans for newhire classes in the summer of 2009. We'll see. But that means that they are planning on an increased summer schedule, some attrition and all pilots on furlough having the opportunity to return.

We'll see.

I flew with a bunch of our pilots just before they got furloughed and they were terrific! I wish everyone had such a positive attitude!

It's a cyclical business and it'll come back up.

What airline might this be?

Joe Biden talked about an "incident" that will occur in the early presidency of Barack Obama, and I think that this will be a major financial meltdown. The U.S. Government stopped publishing the amount of currency in circulation 2 years ago, in advance recognition of the coming financial woes. The bubble got too big, and we are going to pay the interest that has been dolled out and already spent by going through some tough financial times. It may sound like conspiracy bull to you, but that is what the financial analysts are saying. Anyway... aviaion is very sympathetic to the economy so even though there may be some jobs to be had in the coming year, we are all in for a ling road that probably includes a lot of time out on the street for many of us. Just my two cents.

Don't go in debt to become a pilot. Bad idea.

There might be some airlines hiring in 2009. Colgan, Mesaba, Great Lakes, Go Jet (yea...I know), RAH, and probably Eagle. As for the others there might be a few new hire classes from pools to cover attrition and to cover the pilots who dont return when they get recalled. Some Airlines wont even think about a new hire class until 2010.

Those guys all said a lot of stuff to get votes. Biden was just bumbling non-sense.

It's not a big secret, but to be fair, I won't name it. Word only from the folks who might know. But if there's hiring it'd be to cover attrition and summer rebound only likely. Don't read more into it than that.

But don't take it too seriously. Rumors are worth nothing until you're in the seat of the airplane.

Just telling what I have heard and what makes some sense.

But I will also say that the airplanes I have been flying lately have been disturbingly empty. That is not a good sign.

i know it's all cyclical but if there is no flying to be done then why is there a need for any pilots? if the airlines stay with the reduced schedules a lot of guys will be sitting around...i think that from now until april the industry will stay stable as it is now...and then after that we'll see what happens next summer...

hopefully the economy will be on the upside, oil will stay reliatively decent and maybe the airlines will get out of their cutback mode...

I saw 14 Freedom ERJs in one hour at JFK a couple weeks ago. Maybe all 10 were there and 4 returned to the gates for mechanicals.

We can only hope, but unfortunately I'm in the cynical crowd on that question.

This is nothing new. The same thing happened to the last three presidents. Desert Storm under Bush Sr. 1993 WTC bombings and Somalia under Clinton, and 9/11 under G.W. Bush. There is always something. If something happens in Obama's first year as President, it's nothing that wouldn't have happened under McCain anyway.

As far as your second point is concerned...Agreed.