Better times ahead?

An excerpt from an AVweb article on fractionals:

AVwebBiz Complete Issue
(may have to scroll down to the fractional blurb)

"We're predicting double-digit percentage gains in year-over-year fractional flight activity (operations) later this year, which will be a healthy sign the slump has bottomed out and turned the corner," he said.

I'd love it if he's right, but I won't be sitting by the phone waiting for that callback quite yet.

Let's hope those double digit gains also incur double digit gains in revenue. The fractionals are still going to have to find a way to make the operational side more profitable since aircraft sales are unlikely to rebound very quickly.

First to fall, last to rise is the affliction of corporate aviation.

Whether he is right or wrong; I welcome anyone with a positive outlook. So much of what happens in the economy is driven by speculation. If more people become more positive, we might stand a chance at achieving even marginal growth; which beats what we have seen the last 18 months.

HERE! HERE! (or is it hear, hear? I forget) Stay positive people!

There is a big difference between being positive and being realistic. The Fractional trends are all down and still falling. The bottom is nowhere in sight. As far as being positive goes, there is an old saying; "Pray to God, but row for the shore."

correct the fractional trends are down and still falling, just like everything else.. its a mess everywhere, not just the frax... airline passenger numbers are down, freight is down, flight department closings.... nobody is inmune, there is nowhere to hide

Look at Fedex today...shipping is picking back up. UPS even posted better than expected. CAL's CEO just said the summer was better than expected and the bottom has stopped and moving north. Also, This week posting on Bloomberg is that the industry is starting to recover and no one is expecting an airline will go bankrupt this winter.

Now I know the fracs are different due to high end travelers and business travel niche which is slower than normal to recover but I think it will be good in a year or so.

The only disclaimer is that Buffet is amazing and knows business and markets better than anyone. If he is cutting jobs, then maybe my shares of Berkshire may not rebound as quick as I think.

Good luck to you guys.

I have taken several airline trips this year (Leaving the Fractional world afforded me lots of time with the family, LOL).......and I have NEVER paid so little for tickets. C'mon, $170 round trip from Denver to Las Vegas on a weekend? We are in the process of booking a 2-week trip to Africa. Our travel agent told us that overseas ticket prices are in a free-fall, some nealry half of what they were last year. THAT, my friends, isn't a sign of recovery in aviation. It is a sign of desperation. Good luck to all that choose to stay in this industry.

Given your convictions, what are you still doing spending time on these boards? Trying to reassure yourself about your decision?