Quote:
Originally Posted by webecheck
financially, getting out now would be the worst decision you could possibly make, unless of course you went agr guard/reserves. i am in the same boat as you. i was nerdy enough to create a spreadsheet analyzing it all. the problem is 2 things: 1, the bonus, albeit small, helps alot when factoring compounding interest over time, and 2, the initial pay cut you take when entering the airlines. w/o a bonus and w/ a higher starting airline salary it would be a decision solely factored on qol. if you live paycheck to paycheck then it doesnt matter b/c money is irrelevant to you. however, if you have a nest egg already and one of your goals is to grow it to the max and put yourself in the best financial position as possible, then getting out at 11.5 years or later(as computed in my analysis) is ludicrous. more notes: if you wont make it past 0-3, or you can get hired by ups or fedex then the decision is less lopsided in the usaf's favor. furthermore, you must compute your desired retirement age. the lower the number the more advantageous staying in is. now, if you can transfer to a guard/reserve agr billet and retire from that doing the job of your choice then you have found the holy grail imo.
again, i computed it all, call me a nerd if you will.....and my 3 goals were: continue to support my family with the same cash flow i have now, retire (i mean no work retire) at as young an age as possible, and lastly, grow my savings to the max while minimizing risk. the end result was: search for the holy grail and if unable to find it, suffer until 20. then, i can get a lcc airline job and fly caribbean routes with minimal time changes while counting my money and knowing that i can say F.U. to the man any day i want b/c i suffered through a couple extra middle east deployments and pcs's. just my .02, cuz you asked.
I did the same thing, in a different fashion. I computer out career earning potential to age 60. Assuming retirement at 60 with pay check/bennies then going to an airline, and upgrading to captain at 10 years.
Then I looked at getting out at 12, going guard/reserve (with the minumum drill per year) and again, 10 year upgrade to captain.
Bottom line, the earning potential of the guy that gets out at 12 years and does the reserve/airline gig will make significantly more money up to age 60. By a factor of almost a million dollar at Southwest and FedEx (at current pay rates).
That being said, it's a complete crap shoot. You'll only know for certain the day you set the parking brake for the last time. All you can do is plan with what info you have, and right now the info says
1.) Gov't is looking at cost cutting across the board
2.) RIF is probably not far off
3.) Bonus has already been cut down
4.) Retirment cut's are already being floated
5.) Airlines posted record profits last year
6.) All are top heavy and poised for massive retirements
7.) Airlines seem to have learned capacity discipline, and I think are more resilient to fuel cost surges
Two years ago, this was a completely different picture. Two years from now, the pendulum may go the other way. No one has a crystal ball to say for certain, just look at what you and your family want to do, and go from there.