I was last teaching at a big school in San Antonio in 2008-2009. The ratio was at least 10 to 1 not in favor of domestic students. That school has since gone under due to foreign airlines not paying their bill on time.

My take is the puppy mill schools, especially the ones that do not accept foreign students are fixing to get a really rude awakeing. Few people can fork over 60K - 80K for a three to six month school and no one is lending that kind of green for it either.

In the long run, airlines with do one of two things, start their own training school for the zero to hero guy,,,,or hire boatloads of non-domestic first officers.....riiiiiight......

also....if oil prices dont get too out of hand,,,,we might actually have a miniature pilot shortage in this country....again...considering crude and mid east ....

In the 1960's my father was chased down the hall at UCLA by a representative from American Airlines. At the time he was a young new private pilot who would soon graduate as an aerospace engineer.

The guy from AA pestered him for weeks to hire on with their company as an airline pilot. The company offered to pay his way through flight school and provide a salary too. He told me that at the same time UAL, DAL and NWA were sending him unsolicited letters offering to hire and train him to become an airline pilot.

If we truly are going to experience some kind of shortage then the evidence will show up in all of our mail boxes. Right before the housing bust I received an unsolicited post card from a huge regional flight school that was desperate for instructors. The regionals could be in the same situation in the next few years, but that does not mean that they will pay any better or offer a decent QOL.

Skyhigh

Yes, let's face it: It's a lot cheaper to send out $0.44 letters to every private pilot (in the hopes that a sufficient number will jump at the chance to drop their own nickle and go deeply into debt for the job) than it is to improve pay and QOL. I agree, there will be a real shortage when they raise pay and QOL enough to attract good applicants AND pay for their training. They will do everything on earth prior to that, including attempting to get the MPL and bringing in foreign pilots.