Same boat...kinda
Hey dude,
I am in the same boat, but a year earlier than you. I volunteered for the VSP when it came out and was denied. Then the RIF came and they retained me. Two months later, I met the board with an P (imagine that), and I was passed over. I have 2 combat tours, a PCS to the schoolhouse, and no black marks on my record. I also don't have a masters...so I definitely didn't play the game.
That said, with your Bac+ and SOS in correspondence, even with a P, I think you have a pretty good chance of getting promoted. You probably even have a good chance of getting a DP.
If you don't get promoted, don't sweat it. It has been awesome for me. I let the boss know know I was planning on getting out when I get passed over the second time and he hooked me up with a "job" that allows me to fly my butt off and actually have time to improve as an instructor, my primary AF job. I have totally jettisoned all queep. I work less and life is pretty good.
From the Reserve units I have talked to, if you have a clean record and are a good dude, they won't have a problem putting in for a waiver and hiring you. A lot of good workhorses in the AF are getting passed over these days because they don't have the boxes checked...that's the exact kind of person the Reserves are looking for.
Also, your timing may be perfect with the "shortage" coming. I have been putting applications in with every company that opens their windows. We'll see how those pan out.
Any questions, just shoot me a PM. Good luck!