But... I bet you'd be surprised at how fast legislation could be put in place to allow for 'whatever it takes' if the industry suddenly faced a very real and credible threat of grounding a large percent of the fleet for lack of crews. From a national security - economic - standpoint, the lawmakers could not, would not, allow such a paralysis to happen.

What are you seemingly afraid of?

THERE IS NOT NOR WILL EVER BE A SHORTAGE OF PILOTS FOR MAJOR AIRLINE JOBS.

Apply directly to the forehead times infinity.

Any "shortage" that occurs will be 100% self-induced and NOT due to a real lack of pilots.

Seriously, look up the definition of shortage, then the definition of scarcity...

I don't think we will face a credible threat of grounding due to lack of crews. What the industry may face, is a shortage of applicants to terrible regional jobs. Not because the pilots aren't available, but rather because many refuse to work at such terrible places. And the regionals will be unable to staff their aircraft. This will result in required metrics not being met, & provide leverage to mainline pilot groups to bring large RJs back to mainline.

Even if that happens, all that does it provide partial relief for the 300 hour wonders of the past. It doesn't really change anything. If anything, it locks those individuals into a regional caste system where they are even less likely to compete for the better jobs once they get their time up.

If there is ever a "national " pilot shortage that seriously impacts the economy, government (or industry) could start a training program similar to the Aviation Cadet program in the 1950-60s. No college, rigorous screening, high elimination rate, one year of flight training / academics then wings and qualification to fly military fighters. Of course they wouldn't have enough time to be a Regional first officer.

What does lack of crews have to do with national security?

Lack of crews = fewer flights = Economic Loss = less $$ for security.

This is where life in GlennBeckistan leads too. Everything is a threat and only more "security" can save us.

To the original question, new hire regional FO's will need 1500 hrs very soon. With this time they are marketable to most global carriers who require large numbers of new pilots. The regionals (and therefore scope) will continue to be less and less of a threat. RJ operators used to compete with turbo prop cargo 135 and Challenger/Lear outfits. Now they will be competing with AA and Alaska. It's a pretty clear choice for most and the RJ outfits are going to fill a smaller circle over time. And not by choice of either major or regional management but because of market reality.

Besides the obvious airline, regional airline FO issue... go one step "lower" if you will than that. What about the CFI's? Ok, so the regionals take a massive vacuum, and suck the CFI's out of every sh!tty place, great place, etc... that teach students to fly. Now what? You hire 600 CFI's that jump to the 121 world, and have 400 students that become CFI's... multiply that by year after year... do the mental math... It's not if, but when... If you can't produce CFI's because of economy, loans, schooling, whatever, etc... then you won't have ANY pilots to suck up... Eventually it'll be like holding that same vacuum cleaner 6" off the floor... you'll be lucky to get anything, let alone enough to staff multitudes of planes...

EDIT: To add... most military guys don't want to leave, and if they do, SWA, UAL, etc are eating those guys up like Rudolph eats carrots...

Pilots will need to hit 1500hrs to be qualified to fly for an airline; instructing is a pretty darn good way to get there...