I recently sat down with a college student acquaintance who wanted to ask me some general questions about an airline career. Our conversation got me thinking about upgrades times. I remembered that Compass has some sort of flow-through agreement with Delta. I did some research, so let me know if this is right. A Compass pilot can flow through if:
- They are a captain
- Have been at Compass for 30 months
- Delta is hiring

With the 25% rule, it looks like about 100 pilots a year will be eligible for flow-through once the above parameters are met. With projected retirements at Delta (I came up with about 3,200 over the next 5 years, from another thread), it seems this would make Compass rather attractive to those seeking the elusive "quick upgrade." Theoretically, shouldn't people be "flowing through" pretty soon?

Is this a fair assessment? (And forgive my ignorance if I'm way off the mark here.)

Your info regarding the flow in its current form is accurate. I'd only add that it gets renegotiated if CP is sold again. As far as Delta hiring there is a lot of conflicting information out there - much of which was discussed thoroughly in this thread:
http://www.airlinepilotforums.com/ma...ts-2013-a.html

About 75% of the CP group is still eligible, some of them are getting hired elsewhere first. The most recent upgrades have been FOs for 3+ years. Considering nearly all of us are prior 121 the true upgrade time for most people is much higher.

All true except new hires don't have a flow thru. Only people on property at the time they were sold have flow thru.

I wish!! We only retire 857 over the next 5 years. The big retirement #'s don't really kick in until 2018.

Yup. 3200 scheduled retirements is what is scheduled over the next 8 years(Not 5). Over the next 10 years 4800+ are scheduled to retire.

2013 - 56
2014 - 121
2015 - 169
2016 - 225
2017 - 286
2018 - 415
2019 - 513
2020 - 602
2021 - 789
2022 - 851
2023 - 809
2024 - 805
2025 - 713
2026 - 610
2027 - 514

I get 2387 over the next 8 years. I'm sure there will be more because all wont go until 65. The big question is whether or not Delta will be a 12,000 pilot airline in 5 years? I'm guessing somewhere closer to 11,000

Since it's already 2013, I'm including 2021. I think that's the discrepancy. WRT to your last sentence, I'm not sure. Depends on the next contract, & how the new FTDT rules apply to us.

Pretty much all of what the OP posted is true. There are about 300 (+/- 10) flow eligible pilots remaining. Assuming once Delta starts hiring they do not stop, Compass will have some of the fastest attrition in the industry. All of the flow eligible pilots would be gone in less than 30 months with continuous hiring. Aprox 110 pilots can flow in a rolling 12 month period. After that all non flow eligible pilots will be offered guaranteed interviews.

Yes, but it also sounded like he was thinking that a new hire could upgrade and flow quickly, which is not the case.

However Compass and Eagle will likely have some low upgrade times in the near future with the flows and the others leaving for various legacy / major jobs.

Great, thanks for the info and corrections, all. Good stuff to know for those evaluating the hiring environment!