Will mainline keep hiring regional pilots if regional flights are being canceled do to lack of crews?

If new pilot numbers don't meet retirement numbers is it more likely capacity cuts will happen at regionals or mainline?

In the future is it likely mainline will hire more 135, ACMI, and military pilots to prevent canceled flights at regionals?

With all the new regional aircraft orders, manufacture investing in new regional jets for the future and current companies asking for pay cuts, it looks like they have a plan.

larger RJ's for regionals, carries almost the same amount of pax's with reduced frequency. Charge more for the ticket now due to reduction of frequencies.

Larger RJ's require less RJ's of the smaller seats which inturn requires less pilots which in turn if an RJ feeder switches from 40-50 seater's to 76 seater's they will have excess pilots to cover the new FTDT and those leaving for a mainline job.

FAA is going to amend the new requirement and put in waivers for lower time pilots of less of 1500 hours.

management is working hard to get pilot cost down now because tomorrow when the smaller RJ's are replaced with larger RJ's and the new rule with the amendment times there will an ample supply of pilots and the unions will lose the edge. the pilots would be in a better negotiating position but since most are all represented by ALPA who is loosing dues faster than getting them in will force the mec's to capitulate and give management what they want just to keep even a smaller amount of dues coming until they increase the percentage of deduction from your pay.

ALPA is a co-conspirator in the demise of the airline pilot career, simple as that.
ALPA is a tiger with no teeth and looks forward for there next bowl of oatmeal.
Most important about alpa is majority of the pilots in alpa do not trust alpa national except those on the take and corrupt.

IMO, follow the $$$'s and there in lies your answer. The "companies plan" is to fight tooth and nail in order to maintain their 40% or greater profit margin, whatever it takes is fine by them. Mainline will do what is cheapest while walking the tightrope of unionized contractual "speed bumps". Companies r interested in the macro, unlike pilots who view the business world through a straw.

It's "major" see what I did there?

I disagree with buddies 8 in that we are going to see the death of the regional industry, definitely NOT larger RJs. Delta has already begun sending A319s and maddogs to places like CHA, TRI, AGS, MGM that used to be ASA turboprop or 50 seat RJ cities.

I agree however on the ALPA conspiracy. Lee Moak is no friend of RJs. Mainline ALPA failed to hold the line on scope, allowing more 76 seaters, so ALPA's next move is to choke the regional industry until it dies, then replace all the flying with mainline. This has been their goal for several years now.

I believe in several years, after the regionals are gone and mainline can't get pilots, only then will the FAA back away from the 1500 hour rule. Political pressure won't let them bend for the regionals. But if every single regional pilot gets a gob at mainline, they'll have enough pilots for the next 7-10 years.

And make no mistake, mainlines will be shrinking too. They will eventually drop these third tier 50 seat cities within two hours of a larger city, that aren't profitable with mainline equipment.

The problem is one week of light loads on the mainline 160 seater will wipe out the razor thin profit for the whole month, really is a double edged sword flying into smaller markets. I don't have the answer, maybe the cities will eventually have to pony up to a break even.

Razor thin profit? Where have you been the last few years?

It's all about ancillary revenue. Charge 100 people on that 160 seater $25 per checked bag, a few change fees, an few telephone reservations fees and sell some booze and you've still made money. THIS is why the airlines won't be afraid to go back into the secondary markets in the future. They no longer make their money selling the tickets, they make the money once people are on the plane.

When the airlines were all fractured and spread it was more important. 2 mergers of 4 majors and second tier cooperation and buy-outs and it is suddenly less so. Delta will start doing it's own "regional" style flying with their corn-dogs.

That's the beauty of owning airplanes. The CASM on a 160 seater that is paid for is very cheap. Why do you think Delta is buying 50+ used MD90s and 88 B717s(Delta will own them in 7 years)? It creates extreme flexibly when it comes to "capacity discipline". Just look at Allegiant.

AND owning a refinery is an awesome fuel hedge...