Bottom of SWA or bottom of new American?
11-19-2013, 06:36 PM
#141
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2007
Position: Window seat
Posts: 5,191
Originally Posted by itsokimapilot
I think we are saying the same thing. No?
My only point regarding AA, is I've heard folks on here saying that they're gonna upgrade to Capt in 6 years. I just don't see that being the case for any airline. All this upgrade and international talk sounds like a dangling carrot. What we don't see is the next economic struggle that could potentially put folks on the street again. I may have had too much Koolaid, but the fact remains that SWA has turned a profit EVERY year for the last 41 years. Please allow myself to repeat myself. SWA has turned a profit every single year for the last 41 years. Zero furloughs, no discussion of bankruptcy. Naysayers will proclaim Southwest was just lucky, that other airlines were successful until they weren't. I'm willing to take that bet. I wish everyone the best if they choose to fly with AA. But, make no mistake, you'll be more vulnerable to being cut at AA than SWA for the next ten years.
But, then again, what the hell do I know. I'm just a knuckle dragging gear jerker!
My only point regarding AA, is I've heard folks on here saying that they're gonna upgrade to Capt in 6 years. I just don't see that being the case for any airline. All this upgrade and international talk sounds like a dangling carrot. What we don't see is the next economic struggle that could potentially put folks on the street again. I may have had too much Koolaid, but the fact remains that SWA has turned a profit EVERY year for the last 41 years. Please allow myself to repeat myself. SWA has turned a profit every single year for the last 41 years. Zero furloughs, no discussion of bankruptcy. Naysayers will proclaim Southwest was just lucky, that other airlines were successful until they weren't. I'm willing to take that bet. I wish everyone the best if they choose to fly with AA. But, make no mistake, you'll be more vulnerable to being cut at AA than SWA for the next ten years.
But, then again, what the hell do I know. I'm just a knuckle dragging gear jerker!
Six years? First time I've heard that. I think 8 yrs will be the earliest with w/b 2-3 yrs after the first upgrades.
Legacy carriers are closing in on SW's financial performance or outperforming them. The battlefield has changed.
2nd qtr margins -
DL 8.7
US 8.4
AK 8.4
SW 5.9
AA 5.5
UA 5.2
JB 2.7
I forget the exact 3rd qtr results but I think DL was 9.8, and the rest were in basically the same order.
As far as furlough risk? Hard to say. History works against the Legacy carriers. But looking back in history SW was a different airline as were the Legacy carriers.
In the next 10 yrs SW retires 27% of their pilot corps(1750/6350). AA is at 48%(3700/7700). US retires about the same percentage. That's mandatory retirements. If the typical guy leaves a year early AA will retire 55% by end of 2023. It only takes 42%, or under 10 yrs, to get to the junior CA percentage at AA (58%).
Right now junior w/b CA is 49-55% at AA(depending upon which union job data base number you use). With a static airline 45-51% retirements would generate the first newhire w/b CA. That's 10 yrs, or less, from today. The numbers are stunning. Hopefully it works out.
However, US has a lot less w/b's. AA is removing 8(?) w/b's from domestic flying. That will make w/b CA go more senior. But AA/US will need additional w/b's if the DL and UA w/b fleet percentage is the ideal. Got a crystal ball? I'd guess AA/US will require a significant increase of w/b a/c to offset US's w/b weakness. That increase should make junior w/b CA approx. 47-55% in 10 yrs.
11-19-2013, 07:11 PM
#142
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jun 2007
Position: CA
Posts: 1,207
Originally Posted by aa73
My problem was always not being able to sleep after crossing time zones, and the recovery. It eventually led to sleep issues here at home. Guys told me I'd get used to it after a few crossings... 4 years later I was still struggling. Finally realized I am not cut out for it.
It is not the equipment or the destinations that are a problem for me personally, it's the mission. I would love to fly larger aircraft to more distant destinations but when that mission requires switching back and forth between wakeful periods during the middle of the night, I personally am not well suited for it. It's not a dislike of the equipment or the destination it is the backside of the clock that steers me well away.
I realize many individuals do not have my issues, but for me insomnia is simply not worth working that type of schedule ever again. One of the reasons SWA was high on my list was the fact that there was no backside of the clock flying. We have red eyes coming, and I am thankful that I think I'm senior enough to bid away if and when they arrive.
The destinations sound cool, and the long layovers sound nice and I'm sure there is some long haul flying that does not take place on the backside, but going back and forth between front side to backside is simply not a viable option for this individual. I think I could eventually adjust to living my entire life nocturnally but that is simply not a real option when you have a family. The back and forth regimen is the real root of my sleeping issues.
11-20-2013, 02:48 AM
#144
Banned
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: A-320
Posts: 6,929
Originally Posted by BizPilot
At SWA they only give you peanuts to eat.
At AA on intl. flight your dinner is what first-class is having that evening minus the wine.
At AA on intl. flight your dinner is what first-class is having that evening minus the wine.
11-20-2013, 02:52 AM
#145
No longer cares
Joined APC: Mar 2008
Position: 767er Captain
Posts: 12,109
Originally Posted by JoeyMeatballs
I'm pretty sure I could get a better meal at Friday's than I can on a US Legacy airline, lol.
11-20-2013, 02:59 AM
#146
Banned
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: A-320
Posts: 6,929
Originally Posted by tsquare
There is not an airline out there that will stop you from bringing your own.
it's definitely a nice perk if you have self control
11-20-2013, 03:02 AM
#147
No longer cares
Joined APC: Mar 2008
Position: 767er Captain
Posts: 12,109
Originally Posted by JoeyMeatballs
I know, I was kidding. I don't know how you guys don't eat 24/7 though. I would be 400lbs if I flew intl with all the food it's definitely a nice perk if you have self control
it's definitely a nice perk if you have self control
11-20-2013, 04:03 AM
#149
Runs with scissors
Joined APC: Dec 2009
Position: Going to hell in a bucket, but enjoying the ride .
Posts: 7,722
I've had much more time to work out on our 24hr. + International layovers and have lost weight since flying Int. But, you do have to say "No thanks, just a cup of ice please" to at least two or three inflight meals each leg, or you will end up looking like an International Flight Attendant. And with more days off at home, I get to spend a lot more time riding my road bike and going to my local gym too.
BUT as others have pointed out, you do have to come up with a way to get some sleep, both in the airplane and on the layovers, or you will be a mess. I won't drink coffee in the airplane until the last 3 hours, if that's my shift in the cockpit, otherwise I won't be able to sleep on my breaks.
BUT as others have pointed out, you do have to come up with a way to get some sleep, both in the airplane and on the layovers, or you will be a mess. I won't drink coffee in the airplane until the last 3 hours, if that's my shift in the cockpit, otherwise I won't be able to sleep on my breaks.
11-20-2013, 05:54 AM
#150
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2007
Posts: 736
Originally Posted by Sliceback
Six years? First time I've heard that. I think 8 yrs will be the earliest with w/b 2-3 yrs after the first upgrades.
Legacy carriers are closing in on SW's financial performance or outperforming them. The battlefield has changed.
2nd qtr margins -
DL 8.7
US 8.4
AK 8.4
SW 5.9
AA 5.5
UA 5.2
JB 2.7
I forget the exact 3rd qtr results but I think DL was 9.8, and the rest were in basically the same order.
As far as furlough risk? Hard to say. History works against the Legacy carriers. But looking back in history SW was a different airline as were the Legacy carriers.
In the next 10 yrs SW retires 27% of their pilot corps(1750/6350). AA is at 48%(3700/7700). US retires about the same percentage. That's mandatory retirements. If the typical guy leaves a year early AA will retire 55% by end of 2023. It only takes 42%, or under 10 yrs, to get to the junior CA percentage at AA (58%).
Right now junior w/b CA is 49-55% at AA(depending upon which union job data base number you use). With a static airline 45-51% retirements would generate the first newhire w/b CA. That's 10 yrs, or less, from today. The numbers are stunning. Hopefully it works out.
However, US has a lot less w/b's. AA is removing 8(?) w/b's from domestic flying. That will make w/b CA go more senior. But AA/US will need additional w/b's if the DL and UA w/b fleet percentage is the ideal. Got a crystal ball? I'd guess AA/US will require a significant increase of w/b a/c to offset US's w/b weakness. That increase should make junior w/b CA approx. 47-55% in 10 yrs.
Legacy carriers are closing in on SW's financial performance or outperforming them. The battlefield has changed.
2nd qtr margins -
DL 8.7
US 8.4
AK 8.4
SW 5.9
AA 5.5
UA 5.2
JB 2.7
I forget the exact 3rd qtr results but I think DL was 9.8, and the rest were in basically the same order.
As far as furlough risk? Hard to say. History works against the Legacy carriers. But looking back in history SW was a different airline as were the Legacy carriers.
In the next 10 yrs SW retires 27% of their pilot corps(1750/6350). AA is at 48%(3700/7700). US retires about the same percentage. That's mandatory retirements. If the typical guy leaves a year early AA will retire 55% by end of 2023. It only takes 42%, or under 10 yrs, to get to the junior CA percentage at AA (58%).
Right now junior w/b CA is 49-55% at AA(depending upon which union job data base number you use). With a static airline 45-51% retirements would generate the first newhire w/b CA. That's 10 yrs, or less, from today. The numbers are stunning. Hopefully it works out.
However, US has a lot less w/b's. AA is removing 8(?) w/b's from domestic flying. That will make w/b CA go more senior. But AA/US will need additional w/b's if the DL and UA w/b fleet percentage is the ideal. Got a crystal ball? I'd guess AA/US will require a significant increase of w/b a/c to offset US's w/b weakness. That increase should make junior w/b CA approx. 47-55% in 10 yrs.
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