ALPA vote starts on the 25th. Personal feeling is that it's still going to be close, but it'll likely pass.
Reserve really depends on the base and aircraft. If you get the A320 FLL or LGB, probably a while (assuming guys are still getting FLL and LGB out of training). JFK and BOS not as long. 6 months to a year is what I was hearing last. E190 is still your fastest ticket off reserve, but a lot will depend on what the classes look like coming in behind you.
SOMETHING is going on with international (ie Lima/Colombia/Costa Rica) flying, but it sounds like it's more of a change in training and currency issues than anything. They haven't said yet, but that's why the latest system bid is kinda odd. They've already said there's a supplemental bid coming after that.