Quote:
Expect service to start to contract to smaller cities and medium cities will see a reduction in service. If they aggressively addressed the problem today, it would still take several years to BEGIN to correct the problem. They're screwed. They f-ed up and many in these managements STILL underestimate the severity of this impending disaster. The tsunami is getting closer to the beach and volleyball and beer drinking are still in play. When the wave truly hits, there will be screaming and panic just like a real tsunami. At this point, the wave will just have to hit and then the reaction will occur. A proactive approach would have been FAR cheaper in the long run. I've counseled several aspiring airline pilots away from this industry and all have been successful in other areas, some non-aviation. They've all got Private licenses (some with instrument ratings), but are financially viable in their mid-20's to early 30's minus another $50K in debt. Their salaries allow for actual fairly rapid payment of what education debt a few of them have, instead of spinning your wheels in perpetuity, a slave to something you're really not gaining on.
Very well put. And to add to that, it is too late. It will take an average of 3 to 5 years for a new student to go from zero to hero with 1500 hrs, and that's if they fly / train full time. The last time I stuck my head into a flight school / academy / aviation college classroom was about 4 to 5 years ago. And at that point, the draw down of US students was in full swing. There where only about 1 or 2 American students per 10 to 15 Chinese, and or Indian students. The foreign students are about all that's keeping most 141 schools alive today, and they aren't training to fly here. If they threw $50K / yr starting salaries and subsidized training cost on the table TODAY (which they have not), it would still not get new warm bodies into the right seat of a regional for another 5 years or so. It might dry up the CFI ranks, as they come over, but how many of them are out there? And who's going to train the next breed? It may also bring some of the ex-pats back, but not all. All that would do is slow the bleed, but not enough. And again, they have NOT taken that step yet. It's too late now. Time is on our side. We are an ever increasing commodity. The trick is getting airline managers to admit it.Originally Posted by eaglefly
Yup, the author of that article doesn't get it. He's got the same disease as the rest of the industry. A plane isn't going to solve this problem and "higher salaries" is a subjective term. The fact is, it's clear the number of 18-22 year olds going to college and starting their adult professional journey simply can't negotiate the extra cost involved to get to a regional airline and that's not the 1500 hour issue as the majority of that final 1200 or so hours are usually not part of the financial output and are actually paying positions, albeit feebly. The parents of potential future airline pilots cannot justify an extra $50-60,000 ABOVE college tuition for the first 300 hours of training especially for the pathetic compensation and even worse treatment by unsympathetic aerial sweatshop operations which encompasses most, if not virtually all the regional carriers. The word is out and reality is here. Band-aids are a waste of time and at this point the "crisis" is more like 18 months at most. Expect service to start to contract to smaller cities and medium cities will see a reduction in service. If they aggressively addressed the problem today, it would still take several years to BEGIN to correct the problem. They're screwed. They f-ed up and many in these managements STILL underestimate the severity of this impending disaster. The tsunami is getting closer to the beach and volleyball and beer drinking are still in play. When the wave truly hits, there will be screaming and panic just like a real tsunami. At this point, the wave will just have to hit and then the reaction will occur. A proactive approach would have been FAR cheaper in the long run. I've counseled several aspiring airline pilots away from this industry and all have been successful in other areas, some non-aviation. They've all got Private licenses (some with instrument ratings), but are financially viable in their mid-20's to early 30's minus another $50K in debt. Their salaries allow for actual fairly rapid payment of what education debt a few of them have, instead of spinning your wheels in perpetuity, a slave to something you're really not gaining on.