Ok so we all get it. UAL, DAL, and AA have massive retirements over the next 15+ years. My question is...for a guy being hired right now, which one has the MOST retirements? They can't be exactly the same...anyone have the real numbers?

American, United, then Delta in that order. Retirements happen in waves. American's wave happens first.

"Most"? Percentage would be more important. And are you looking at 5 yrs? 10 yrs? 15 yrs?

It's your lucky day. I found the piece of scrap paper with the data yesterday.(percentages change due to the increase in hiring increasing the total crew list but the changes aren't huge) -

5 yrs 10 yrs 15 yrs (2020/2025/2030)

AA 21% 53 77
DL 19 52 75
UA 20 41 67
SW 12 25 44
FDX 23 49 73
UPS 14 35 69


That's why many say it doesn't matter, take the major job in your hometown.

Reality is DL has hired the most guys recently so you're behind the power curve on that bow wave. AA has hired the least. That's why, in spite of the DL profit sharing value ($$) in it's contract, that AA is in high demand at job fairs. Similar retirement numbers as DL in the next 15 years and fewer young guys already hired ahead of you for the last 15 years.

Great post, thanks. Source of this "piece of scrap paper?"

apc retirement data. And posts on apc with updated retirement data.

It was sometimes slightly different than internal data I had but not enough to matter.

I did it late last year or early this year. Previous posted on apc.

And that's based on Age 65.

AA's averaging 63 yrs old at retirement right now so the 15 yr projection is actually 80% vs. the 77% assuming Age 65.

I have been looking at Delta retirements and noticed it only goes until 2027. Anybody have data past that?

In 2028 we all become cybernetic organisms and stop retiring.

Use the search function for "Legacy retirements"(?). There are posts out there with additional information. I also called some buddies if data was missing. Your merger or negotiating committees often have data on other airlines.

DL numbers that I have

2028 - 491
2029 - 485
2030 - 500


No guarantees on accuracy. Best shot attempt.

Will the current regional guys absorb most of this? I'm new to the 121 world, thinking about jumping to the regionals for a stint and hopefully getting on with a major or lcc. Just wondering how it looks for a 0 time 121 guy?