Sculprit

Sir/Mam, you are mistaken if you think you are employed if you are a cadet.

VegasChris

Just going off what was explained to me. Hire date for benefits (medical starts day 1 indoc ), bonuses, 401k contribution rate, flight benefits seniority date all comes from that date.

So I guess they back date it all then when indoc starts or cadets are technically employed?

TFAYD

do you get a paycheck from SKYW today? There is your answer.

they may keep the cadets since it doesn’t really cost them anything.

i also don’t think they will furlough anyone if the target is only 10% smaller. They will get there with retirements and attrition across the board.

just majors don’t hire doesn’t mean that people won’t leave to do other stuff rather than commit cross country to sit reserve.

TheOtherGuy25

Will there be much attrition? There isn’t really any place to move on to, for anyone in any role. That could change of course once things start to open up again.

Retirements will help if they are in other departments, but looking at the SAPA retirement tool, we don’t have many at all coming up for the pilots. Unless more start taking an early out for health reasons.
I’ve gone up 2 seniority numbers in about 3 weeks, such a change from 10-12 a week or more even, for awhile there.

R0GER BALL

medical first of the month following indoc day one.
bonus (military) end IOE
401k one year after cadet date
flight benefits 2-4ish weeks prior indoc

All those (quicker benefits) do cost money once the cadet becomes an employee. So... All are in the past until the next pilot shortage. Believe you’ll see the cadet program dissolved first. Watch for that. Then those with cjo’s go into a pool of some sort. Hopefully.

Talking to my peers in the training pipeline we’re hopeful for a 2021 restart. That based on some conditions I’m certain (currency, medical, criminal record recheck). Some will hang in, some won’t as we return to a “resized” airline with fewer/smaller classes and long reserve periods at fewer bases.

If you’re young or middle aged you’ve got decades ahead to love (or hate!) this career. You’ll be fine in the long haul. However, do yourself a favor. Right now. Forget about the cadet program. About a cjo. About a class date. STAY HEALTHY (not covid, all the things the FAA can slap you for) and get a new long game.

Time to start running the ball, my friend.

Utah

As far as retirements, there are only about 25 over the next 18 months. 50 over the next 30.

I've heard talk of a few taking early retirement, but the numbers I'd guess are small.

There's always a chance that some will leave the profession as well. Base closure, reductions, etc..

MrButter

On-pause E175 trainee weighing in here.

TL;DR - Pilot demand at rock bottom + a surplus of soon-to-be furloughed and fresh 1500TT pilots = Good fricken' luck.

Here's how it looked Pre-COVID: You'd want to apply for the Pathway Program as soon as you could (you're clear to join even as a student pilot, you don't have to even hold a rating). It does indeed give you company seniority for the 1-year and 2-year bonuses and as it was previously stated, company benefits kick in at INDOC, rather than the 60-day hold. For example, I have 7 months' time with the company but started INDOC in February. It allowed me to secure benefits PRIOR to COVID-19 such as healthcare, whereas some classmates weren't so lucky. Cadets also have seniority in class, therefore 1st pick of base selection, SIM schedule and location, and their pilot seniority number. For example: Reserve vs Line, Good Base vs Bad, off on a weekend or not -- it can all boil down to 1 seniority spot. And at the end of the day, there's no commitment, you get a free trip to SLC for the show-n-tell, and you feel like you have some skin in the game. So you might as well do it.

Now, here's how it looks Post-COVID: While this is all my assumption/opinion, I could be wrong, but I wouldn't expect anything from the Pathway Program anytime soon. Why? OO is likely unable to make accurate pilot hiring projections due to UA, AA, DL, AS rolling back their operations, looming furloughs that will prevent OO pilots from moving to the Majors thus creating vacancies, and the necessity to preserve cash and simply have a smaller airline. I say that because OO leadership can't even project flying for each month so I imagine projecting hiring isn't even a huge concern.

Here's the return order to OO from how I see it:
1) CQ training from July - September (we had 1000+ pilots take time off),
2) Then once demand dictates, call back those sent home from training in seniority order (I'd guess 200ish pilots or more)
3) Then once demand dictates again, contact those who had class dates scheduled and see who's around waiting
4) Then once demand dictates yet again, contact CJOs and Cadets in order to see who is ready to join a class.
5) At some point, add new cadets to the mix.

Long story short, just a massively long wait time to get with any airline now. So, my advice to a 150TT pilot:

1) Apply for the Pathway Program, then forget about it. It's all you can do.
2) Obviously focus on your time, acquiring knowledge, staying healthy.
3) Diversify yourself in regards to hobbies, extracurriculars, career. Don't break the law. VOLUNTEER. I envision hiring being very competitive moving forward as we now have a pilot surplus.
4) Depending on age, consider military aviation.
5) L3Harris was mentioned. Schools like them feed off international contracts, which have since run dry due to no travel or VISAs being offered. Use caution.
6) What I'm doing, is watching each major like a hawk in order to see how they treat their employees during this time -- helps decide who to work for in the future. Watch the regionals and do the same.

Anyway, there's a lot of negativity there. Unfortunately, that's just the reality. Luckily for you, you're at 150TT and have a massive amount of time to build, which will take quite a while. By the time you earn your hours, the world should be okay.

Best of luck.

Utah

I believe there might be a contractual obligation to hire UA pilots that get laid off. I presume those would come in after those that were sent home during training.

TheOtherGuy25

I have heard that before but is it actually contractual with the non WO airlines? I was told last time the "jets for jobs" was more a good will thing and UA gave us a bunch of flying in somewhat of a handshake agreement for helping them out so they wouldn't cause a war of sorts with their pilots at the time.

Now I was not on property at that time so it is just what I have heard through the grape vine of senior guys.

Itsajob

It is in the UPA. If United furloughs beyond 1/23/2016, 76 seaters have to be converted to 70 seaters and the regionals operating those planes have to hire furloughed United pilots. Any company that refuses will no longer fly the United brand. There is a certain number of people that have to be given jobs, but I can’t remember how many. They are hired as new hires, but they start at second year pay. Once the regionals go through the list once, if they don’t get enough takers, the obligation is met. None of that really matters if the regional isn’t hiring, or if they are furloughing also.