Airline Pilot Central Forums

Go Back  Airline Pilot Central Forums > Airline Pilot Forums > Regional > SkyWest
thoughts... >

thoughts...

Register
FAQ
Advertising
Calendar
Today's Posts
Search
Notices
SkyWest Regional Airline

thoughts...

Page 1 of 2
1
2
Thread Tools
 
Search this Thread
 
Old 01-16-2020, 12:55 PM
  #1  
On Reserve
Thread Starter
 
Joined APC: Jan 2020
Posts: 16
Default thoughts...
Ok, so pondering the numbers here, won't most, if not all, the demand for the retiring pilots leaving the majors get filled by all the existing regional guys right now, so most entering the regionals within the next year are probably going to be there awhile? Agree / Disagree?

I'm trying to roadmap to what a possible career looks like at this point, I'm 40, leaving my family small business I was running... am a MIL Rotor transition guy... wanting either Southwest or American as they are PHX based down the road...

Just trying to collect some opinions from everyone... thanks in advance!
naa3e5 is offline  
Reply
Old 01-16-2020, 01:32 PM
  #2  
Gets Weekends Off
 
Joined APC: Oct 2005
Position: RJ Captain
Posts: 1,174
Default
Disagree. The Legacies will prefer the newer, low time guys to those that have been around forever.

Additionally, they'll always be guys that don't want to move on or can't. SkyWest has a number of First Officers that don't even want to upgrade, many with 10-15+ years seniority.
Utah is offline  
Reply
Old 01-16-2020, 02:06 PM
  #3  
Gets Weekends Off
 
Joined APC: Apr 2015
Position: CRJ
Posts: 372
Default
Or the economy tanks again and the majors dont have the need to hire and they allow retirements for natural attrition to avoid furlough.
Tippy is offline  
Reply
Old 01-16-2020, 02:24 PM
  #4  
Perennial Reserve
 
Excargodog's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 11,489
Default
Originally Posted by naa3e5 View Post
Ok, so pondering the numbers here, won't most, if not all, the demand for the retiring pilots leaving the majors get filled by all the existing regional guys right now, so most entering the regionals within the next year are probably going to be there awhile? Agree / Disagree?

I'm trying to roadmap to what a possible career looks like at this point, I'm 40, leaving my family small business I was running... am a MIL Rotor transition guy... wanting either Southwest or American as they are PHX based down the road...

Just trying to collect some opinions from everyone... thanks in advance!
depends on what your total fixed wing time is and a number of other things. The major retirement wave is still building and won’t peak for another 3-4 years depending on which airline you are discussing. It then continues mandatory retirements at that rate for another 3-4 years and then begins to taper. Find the right regional and fly your butt off you could be competitive by the middle of the wave, perhaps even earlier. Go to one of the regionals that is starting to bank pilots because they know the attrition is coming and stay on reserve logging 25-30 hours a month...you are going to screw yourself.

and if all you have is rotary time, you might want to lower your sights to a ULCC. Nothing disgraceful about only pulling down $200 K plus $30 K 401k DC as a year four captain.
Excargodog is offline  
Reply
Old 01-16-2020, 02:26 PM
  #5  
On Reserve
Thread Starter
 
Joined APC: Jan 2020
Posts: 16
Default
Originally Posted by Excargodog View Post
depends on what your total fixed wing time is and a number of other things. The major retirement wave is still building and won’t peak for another 3-4 years depending on which airline you are discussing. It then continues mandatory retirements at that rate for another 3-4 years and then begins to taper. Find the right regional and fly your butt off you could be competitive by the middle of the wave, perhaps even earlier. Go to one of the regionals that is starting to bank pilots because they know the attrition is coming and stay on reserve logging 25-30 hours a month...you are going to screw yourself.

and if all you have is rotary time, you might want to lower your sights to a ULCC. Nothing disgraceful about only pulling down $200 K plus $30 K 401k DC as a year four captain.
Thanks, appreciate the insight...thinking SkyWest right now, just got the Pathways invite...
naa3e5 is offline  
Reply
Old 01-16-2020, 05:41 PM
  #6  
Gets Weekends Off
 
Joined APC: Aug 2017
Posts: 157
Default
Rough math show over the next 14 years, 40,000+ Legacy/Mainline pilots will age 65 retire. Not including those retiring for other reasons. There are only about 20,000 regional pilots...

Edit: 29000k retire in the next 9 years, 10K more in the 4 yrs after that, total of 39K over 14 years. Whooo boy...
Last edited by Castle Bravo; 01-16-2020 at 05:51 PM.
Castle Bravo is offline  
Reply
Old 01-17-2020, 06:49 AM
  #7  
Perennial Reserve
 
Excargodog's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 11,489
Default
Originally Posted by Castle Bravo View Post
Rough math show over the next 14 years, 40,000+ Legacy/Mainline pilots will age 65 retire. Not including those retiring for other reasons. There are only about 20,000 regional pilots...

Edit: 29000k retire in the next 9 years, 10K more in the 4 yrs after that, total of 39K over 14 years. Whooo boy...
and roughly 1200 fixed wing military aviators separate/retire or go into the Reserves annually so they can take airline jobs. Not saying times aren’t good, but don’t leave that out of your figuring. Figure 11,000 of those 29,000 airline jobs are going to them, 17,000 of the 39,000.
Excargodog is offline  
Reply
Old 01-17-2020, 07:07 AM
  #8  
Prime Minister/Moderator
 
rickair7777's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 39,244
Default
Originally Posted by Tippy View Post
Or the economy tanks again and the majors dont have the need to hire and they allow retirements for natural attrition to avoid furlough.
It would have to be a pretty bad tank, a mild recession won't slow the hiring for much longer than a year (some airlines would likely keep hiring prime candidates just to "stock up" for what they know is around the corner).
rickair7777 is offline  
Reply
Old 01-17-2020, 11:28 AM
  #9  
Gets Weekends Off
 
Joined APC: Jan 2012
Posts: 490
Default
The difference in retirements over the number of available/qualified regional pilots will probably give corporate management the perfect reason to push for semi autonomous aircraft.
Hawker445 is offline  
Reply
Old 01-17-2020, 12:03 PM
  #10  
Gets Weekends Off
 
Joined APC: Aug 2017
Posts: 157
Talking
Originally Posted by Excargodog View Post
and roughly 1200 fixed wing military aviators separate/retire or go into the Reserves annually so they can take airline jobs. Not saying times aren’t good, but don’t leave that out of your figuring. Figure 11,000 of those 29,000 airline jobs are going to them, 17,000 of the 39,000.
That checks, and I can't dispute how many leave the Mil each year because I don't have my peeps at AFPC anymore. What does amaze me is how many of my more senior officer buddies (O-5 and up) DO NOT go to the airlines. Hard to pass up even 15 years of that kind of salary, but they do, and there is more than I would've thought. Plus there is always Stop Loss, blah blah. I just don't see the Mil guys plugging the breech very well. Fun times ahead.
Castle Bravo is offline  
Reply
Page 1 of 2
1
2
Related Topics
Thread
Thread Starter
Forum
Replies
Last Post
Thoughts on this position
RedOverWhite
Corporate
8
05-02-2016 12:22 AM
My thoughts to my LEC rep
bigdaddie
Delta
14
06-27-2015 06:46 AM
PC's VIPs message, your thoughts?
Hound
Cargo
93
08-15-2014 05:32 PM
Some thoughts on the LOA from FXDX
FXDX
Cargo
3
08-07-2007 07:58 AM
APC, Internet Forums and the First Amendment: Some Thoughts
vagabond
Hangar Talk
14
04-25-2007 09:09 AM
Back to Subforum
SkyWest
View Next Unread
DVR

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On


Your Privacy Choices