thoughts...
 

Ok, so pondering the numbers here, won't most, if not all, the demand for the retiring pilots leaving the majors get filled by all the existing regional guys right now, so most entering the regionals within the next year are probably going to be there awhile? Agree / Disagree?

I'm trying to roadmap to what a possible career looks like at this point, I'm 40, leaving my family small business I was running... am a MIL Rotor transition guy... wanting either Southwest or American as they are PHX based down the road...

Just trying to collect some opinions from everyone... :) thanks in advance!

Disagree. The Legacies will prefer the newer, low time guys to those that have been around forever.

Additionally, they'll always be guys that don't want to move on or can't. SkyWest has a number of First Officers that don't even want to upgrade, many with 10-15+ years seniority.

Or the economy tanks again and the majors dont have the need to hire and they allow retirements for natural attrition to avoid furlough.

depends on what your total fixed wing time is and a number of other things. The major retirement wave is still building and won’t peak for another 3-4 years depending on which airline you are discussing. It then continues mandatory retirements at that rate for another 3-4 years and then begins to taper. Find the right regional and fly your butt off you could be competitive by the middle of the wave, perhaps even earlier. Go to one of the regionals that is starting to bank pilots because they know the attrition is coming and stay on reserve logging 25-30 hours a month...you are going to screw yourself.

and if all you have is rotary time, you might want to lower your sights to a ULCC. Nothing disgraceful about only pulling down $200 K plus $30 K 401k DC as a year four captain.

Thanks, appreciate the insight...thinking SkyWest right now, just got the Pathways invite...

Rough math show over the next 14 years, 40,000+ Legacy/Mainline pilots will age 65 retire. Not including those retiring for other reasons. There are only about 20,000 regional pilots...

Edit: 29000k retire in the next 9 years, 10K more in the 4 yrs after that, total of 39K over 14 years. Whooo boy...

and roughly 1200 fixed wing military aviators separate/retire or go into the Reserves annually so they can take airline jobs. Not saying times aren’t good, but don’t leave that out of your figuring. Figure 11,000 of those 29,000 airline jobs are going to them, 17,000 of the 39,000.

It would have to be a pretty bad tank, a mild recession won't slow the hiring for much longer than a year (some airlines would likely keep hiring prime candidates just to "stock up" for what they know is around the corner).

The difference in retirements over the number of available/qualified regional pilots will probably give corporate management the perfect reason to push for semi autonomous aircraft.

That checks, and I can't dispute how many leave the Mil each year because I don't have my peeps at AFPC anymore. What does amaze me is how many of my more senior officer buddies (O-5 and up) DO NOT go to the airlines. Hard to pass up even 15 years of that kind of salary, but they do, and there is more than I would've thought. Plus there is always Stop Loss, blah blah. I just don't see the Mil guys plugging the breech very well. Fun times ahead.

Can't happen fast enough, pilot shortage will be over. That's one of those things which WILL happen when technology and economics permit, but cannot happen any sooner than that. Too many stars need to line up.

Which regionals do you feel are trying to bank pilots on reserve because they know attrition is coming? Is SkyWest one of them?

No. were short!!!

Don't let anyone here sell you short. Most who will comment on your qualifications have never flown a helicopter and don't know what they're talking about.

Go to SKW...fly1500 hours and you'll be just fine for the big boys. There isn't that much difference between fixed and rotorwing flying except airplanes is easier. For perspective I flew Hueys in Vietnam and had to get my fixed wing experience and a BS after separating in 1971. In 1976 Delta hired me and I'm retired now finishing on the 777. Rotor to airlines is not a new idea and I was hired when it was very competitive unlike now. Be persistent and you'll succeed with whatever you choose.


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Thanks for the kind words! Huey's in Vietnam must have been some crazy sh!t!!! Thank you for your service!