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United's 270 aircraft order

Old 06-29-2021, 06:18 AM
  #11  
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Originally Posted by Hedley View Post
Where did I say that? The big three will be fine. SkyWest will most likely continue to fly the current number of 70/76 seat planes, but see the CRJ get retired. Considering how many CRJ’s you guys operate for United, their retirement will shrink number of pilots that are needed. I’d expect attrition to take care of the over staffing issues, but it could be a long ride at the bottom for the new hires.

Yea see that’s where this statement goes wrong.
OO is forecasting a doubling of the 175 fleet by the end of 2023 if I remember the earnings call correctly.
Also when a pilot group of 7000+ is in the rumor mill from the right people, I highly doubt this regional attrition like you’re thinking is coming. And that’s only for OO.
What about YX/YV who are talking growth as well?
More narrowbodies = more regional scope right?
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Old 06-29-2021, 06:30 AM
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Originally Posted by Claxstarr View Post
Yea see that’s where this statement goes wrong.
OO is forecasting a doubling of the 175 fleet by the end of 2023 if I remember the earnings call correctly.
Also when a pilot group of 7000+ is in the rumor mill from the right people, I highly doubt this regional attrition like you’re thinking is coming. And that’s only for OO.
What about YX/YV who are talking growth as well?
More narrowbodies = more regional scope right?
I don’t doubt the future of SkyWest. It is an extremely well run corporate entity and you may increase flying for another partner. I am referring to reduction on the UAX side. More NB doesn’t mean more scope necessarily, at least on the United side of the house. United didn’t order a NSNB, so there are no more available 70/76 seat jets. As United NB block hours increase, the allowable UAX block hours increase as well using the current number of 70/76 seat jets. They can only fly so many hours in a day, so with the CRJ gone, the possible block hours for United will be reduced (assuming the current number of 70/76 seaters).
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Old 06-29-2021, 06:33 AM
  #13  
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Doomsday clock for the CRJ200/E145 just started ticking down….

SkyWest will keep a small fleet for EAS/Prorate routes.. But we defiantly wont be flying 149 of them…

Last edited by amcnd; 06-29-2021 at 06:46 AM.
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Old 06-29-2021, 06:37 AM
  #14  
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Originally Posted by amcnd View Post
Doomsday clock for the CRJ200/E145 just started ticking down….
Good, they’re a nightmare for both pilots and passengers. Flying piece of garbage with overhauled engines.

I will say, I’ve had a few UA guys on my JS in the past that live in the small northern city’s of Minnesota/Wisconsin, 200 only service, that might be a little nervous today.
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Old 06-29-2021, 06:43 AM
  #15  
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Originally Posted by Hedley View Post
I don’t doubt the future of SkyWest. It is an extremely well run corporate entity and you may increase flying for another partner. I am referring to reduction on the UAX side. More NB doesn’t mean more scope necessarily, at least on the United side of the house. United didn’t order a NSNB, so there are no more available 70/76 seat jets. As United NB block hours increase, the allowable UAX block hours increase as well using the current number of 70/76 seat jets. They can only fly so many hours in a day, so with the CRJ gone, the possible block hours for United will be reduced (assuming the current number of 70/76 seaters).

Ok non-facetious & serious question….
I’m not following your logic.
You’re saying that when NB block increases, then UAX block increases. Yup, got it.
Then you’re saying when 200’s/145’s disappear, the block hours just disappear as well?
With an increase of UAX block hours & a decrease of 50-seat block hours, wouldn’t that create a 2 fold vacuum for 70/76 seat block hours?
In your hypothesized situation, there would be the exact opportunity I’m talking about for an increase in UAX 175 flying with the loss of 200//145’s and an increase in total UANB/UAX block hours.
You said it yourself… an increase in total UAX block.

I think the press release was very carefully worded to leave out the 70/76 seat birds because something is coming.

We’re also hearing this from senior UA captains riding in jumpseats.
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Old 06-29-2021, 07:00 AM
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Originally Posted by Claxstarr View Post
Ok non-facetious & serious question….
I’m not following your logic.
You’re saying that when NB block increases, then UAX block increases. Yup, got it.
Then you’re saying when 200’s/145’s disappear, the block hours just disappear as well?
With an increase of UAX block hours & a decrease of 50-seat block hours, wouldn’t that create a 2 fold vacuum for 70/76 seat block hours?
In your hypothesized situation, there would be the exact opportunity I’m talking about for an increase in UAX 175 flying with the loss of 200//145’s and an increase in total UANB/UAX block hours.
You said it yourself… an increase in total UAX block.

I think the press release was very carefully worded to leave out the 70/76 seat birds because something is coming.

We’re also hearing this from senior UA captains riding in jumpseats.
Available UAX block hours are set according to a percentage of United NB block hours. Scope caps the number of 70/76 seat aircraft but not 50 seat jets (they are only subject to the total block hour restriction). Prior to COVID the max allowable block hours wasn’t an issue since they didn’t hit the bar with the restricted number of 70/76 seaters and the large number of 50 seaters that were operating. Now, with the removal of the 50 seat jets, their ability to hit the number will be even further restricted. The allowable block hours will increase, but with the single class 50 seater gone/severely reduced, the current 70/76 seat jets can only fly so many hours in a day, and UAX block hours actually flown will go down even though allowable hours increase.

I wouldn’t hold my breath for the relaxation of scope. The rumored additional big rj’s was to come from a NSNB order, not United pilots voting to relax scope.
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Old 06-29-2021, 07:04 AM
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Originally Posted by Claxstarr View Post
Ok non-facetious & serious question….
I’m not following your logic.
You’re saying that when NB block increases, then UAX block increases. Yup, got it.
Then you’re saying when 200’s/145’s disappear, the block hours just disappear as well?
With an increase of UAX block hours & a decrease of 50-seat block hours, wouldn’t that create a 2 fold vacuum for 70/76 seat block hours?
In your hypothesized situation, there would be the exact opportunity I’m talking about for an increase in UAX 175 flying with the loss of 200//145’s and an increase in total UANB/UAX block hours.
You said it yourself… an increase in total UAX block.

I think the press release was very carefully worded to leave out the 70/76 seat birds because something is coming.

We’re also hearing this from senior UA captains riding in jumpseats.
I believe the "increase in Narrow body airplanes leads to an increase in 70/76 seat birds" is the language in the AA scope clause.

Yes, reduction of 50 seat planes means more block open to 70/76 but even though there are more block hours available, we've maxed out of the number of 70/76 seat aircraft in how the UA scope is written today.
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Old 06-29-2021, 07:09 AM
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Originally Posted by Hedley View Post
Available UAX block hours are set according to a percentage of United NB block hours. Scope caps the number of 70/76 seat aircraft but not 50 seat jets (they are only subject to the total block hour restriction). Prior to COVID the max allowable block hours wasn’t an issue since they didn’t hit the bar with the restricted number of 70/76 seaters and the large number of 50 seaters that were operating. Now, with the removal of the 50 seat jets, their ability to hit the number will be even further restricted. The allowable block hours will increase, but with the single class 50 seater gone/severely reduced, the current 70/76 seat jets can only fly so many hours in a day, and UAX block hours actually flown will go down even though allowable hours increase.

I wouldn’t hold my breath for the relaxation of scope. The rumored additional big rj’s was to come from a NSNB order, not United pilots voting to relax scope.

Ok that makes more sense, thanks for the clarification.
Smaller regional/larger mainline presence means more jobs more to the other side of the ledger which I don’t think anyone would have a problem with.
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Old 06-29-2021, 07:10 AM
  #19  
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Originally Posted by Hedley View Post
Available UAX block hours are set according to a percentage of United NB block hours. Scope caps the number of 70/76 seat aircraft but not 50 seat jets (they are only subject to the total block hour restriction). Prior to COVID the max allowable block hours wasn’t an issue since they didn’t hit the bar with the restricted number of 70/76 seaters and the large number of 50 seaters that were operating. Now, with the removal of the 50 seat jets, their ability to hit the number will be even further restricted. The allowable block hours will increase, but with the single class 50 seater gone/severely reduced, the current 70/76 seat jets can only fly so many hours in a day, and UAX block hours actually flown will go down even though allowable hours increase.

I wouldn’t hold my breath for the relaxation of scope. The rumored additional big rj’s was to come from a NSNB order, not United pilots voting to relax scope.
Right, and good, I hope you guys keep the scope tight (that’s what she said), I’ve read some of your posts recently in other threads as well, you seem convinced OO will take a big hit and have overstaffing issues. Are you aware OO is hiring 200 pilots a month? Filled until December and counting. Use some common sense, something we’re unaware of is going on under the table. In typical OO management fashion we won’t hear of it until everyone else has.
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Old 06-29-2021, 07:11 AM
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Originally Posted by Hedley View Post
To qualify as a 50 seat jet the seating configuration has to be 50 or less and a weight of 65,000 lbs or less. UALPA will not allow the weight to be changed. According to what I’ve read, the single class 50 seat jets are being phased out, but the 550’s are going to be around for a while.
the CRJ 550 is at 65000 as far as I know. Why would it need to change? Come down? It already is considered a 50 seater under the UPA
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