PossibleDeviation

We are pay protected.

LAXtoDEN

We lost 141 Captains, 80 FO’s for a total of 221
pilots in December. Our Seniority List actually shrunk back to 5,700 pilots. I think the majors are starting early on mass hiring expected for 2022.

I think management might have to seek some career progression program if Captains stay and hold the line. The amount of SkyWest pilots that left for AA in December has to be a record as well.

The big woah factor is the fact we lost 141 Captains in a month! 2022 will be a wild ride.

amcnd

% wise were less then Mesa and Commute air. But we had a ruff go with that storm that bulls-eyed SLC-DEN-ORD

Hawker445

December was insane
141 CAs gone

3400

Endeavor is all CRJ and they’re not having any trouble finding applicants. I think it’s more the quality and future prospects of the company and less about the airplane.

brocklee9000

Every captain I flew with from first of August until nearly Thanksgiving had an offer or class date. From Allegiant and Spirit, all the way up to Southwest and Fedex. Since then my seniority has bumped me up to the senior/standup guys who are never leaving, but the story is not unique to my peers. FOs all around are leaving, and I'm trying my darnedest as well.

The biggest thing that stands out to me was back in the Fall with wholly-owneds announcing flows and bonus programs. We saw several months where every regional was picky, but once they ran out of furloughed and high-time CFIs, they were back to hiring at mins and it's been as many as they can fit. We had an observer last week that said his class alone was like 65 people. Some friends in captain training are waiting 6+ weeks for IOE, and that new hire observer said the same (I guess they can activate in FliteView to track that they're doing observations while they wait in limbo). Also back in the fall we had the most recent quarterly investor meeting. Chip was very quick and proud to shut down a certain investment analyst who kept trying to ask what our plans are for attrition and combating the aforementioned flows and bonuses, and kept reiterating that we have "class dates filled through the summer of 2022" and blah blah blah we only hire the best and people want to come here. Hubris might be on its way soon.

I've seen quite a few proactive cancels on my schedule this month, and some not-so-proactive (i.e. we're all boarded up for a standup, and the gate agent comes and says we're canceled). PBS already delayed to be reshuffled. TTG begging hoodwinking kindly asking us each month to "pretty please upgrade, and pls pls pls choose any domicile." This summer just might be a disaster, and I hope a lot of us aren't around to witness it. Why would someone take a 6+ month class date assignment, if other regionals are offering class dates sooner. Or at the very least, comparable future dates but the allure of a fat bonus and maybe a flow. Yes I know, I know, flows are a boondoggle and the bonuses don't directly nix the issue of pilot compensation and retention. BUT try telling that to the tired CFI who just saw his buddy go to Envoy and get a fat check. All his buddies are going to follow him and keep collecting bonuses all the way till AA flows them. Or someone in the northeast whose friend has toiled at Endeavor but now has a flow locked in. Even if you're not aloof, you can't ignore it. A lot of these guys are going to get a callback from Skywest where they say "Hey come to class in June" and they'll say "Okie dokie artichokie" and keep it in their back pocket, probably ultimately going somewhere else in 3 months and calling us in April to say "actually I've decided to go another direction, thanks for the opportunity." Our pay is already back to barely beating the bottom of the barrel. Tons of room for improvement in the contract, which is up for renewal. Exodus of pilots from both seats, huge training backlogs, can't get LCAs out fast enough either plus quite a few of them trying to get out of here.

But hey, they're finally doing 200% open time (with tons of strings attached...). Silver lining, at least in my base and seat it looks like absolutely none of it has been picked up. I want to assume it's due to nobility, but I suspect everyone is just burnt out and can't legally pick up anyway. Either way, it should send a message that everyone is on their wits end.

amcnd

We are in the very early stages if this rollercoaster. Wait tell summer hits… mass exodus even on the senior level is about to start. I know tons of 20+ year guys getting there apps out.. Myself included..

threeighteen

Those kids going to Envoy are going to still be there when someone hired at SkyWest 6 months after they started at Envoy will go to a major years before them. All of Envoy getting "flowed to mainline" is only a wet dream that exists in their brains to justify staying and waiting out the flow but anyone who's been around this industry knows that Envoy will simply shrink, slowly or rapidly, before that ever happens.

And a lot of people forget that the rollercoaster will likely go down again too. Interest rates rising next year, inflation still out of control, etc will put a lot of negative pressure on the airline industry.

herewego

Till summer or better yet, until summer
Their apps.

Make sure you get someone else to spell check your app before you submit it..

brocklee9000

doesn’t matter. We just saw a month of huge attrition and the negative number was big. Again I get it that bonuses and flows look good on paper only, but that doesn’t matter. All they have to do is sell it, and they’ve done a good job selling those for like a decade already. The only people holding out for Skywest when they see no bonus and 6 month wait for class are going to be people that really want a specific base out west.

Maybe the training backlog shrinks by summer, when all those guys get other offers so everyone on the list gets their class date bumped up. It’s still going to be a huge battle of attrition. And even if attrition levels out, again it doesn’t matter when a lot of your training guys and LCAs move on, since new guys still need to get through training. Then they’ll take quick upgrade, get 1000 PIC, leave, and the motive flow continues…