CX cause?
 

428 CX for the day and almost 17 percent of all flights. I’m just curious from those flying the line if it’s:

slc/sfo/sea/lax weather

covid

or a combo of the two?

The narrative that there are cancellations due to COVID doesn't really make any sense to me. We went into December with 99 targeted line holders and 102 total ERJ Captains in the bid package in LAX. There are not reserves. There were zero today, there are zero tomorrow and only a few over the weekend. The company was banking on upgrades passing IOE and being dumped into the system as reserves... it wasn't close to enough. We keep adding more flying on the American side w new ERJs, but we don't have the Captains for it. Further, the hard-stands in the Delta terminal cause disastrous results for our performance because the ramp crews are half of what they should be. Out-stations have similar problems. Resources are stretched thin in multiple places. SkyWest is a great company, we just aren't immune from the hurdles that our current situation presents. Weather is a reasonable excuse for some cancellations, but weather alone would not cause that many cancellations if we were adequately staffed.

Another 146 flights today so far, and it is only 6am on the West Coast.

Im guessing staffing shortages are finally starting to hit. Hundreds getting hired elsewhere every month.

exactiy. The regional airline model implosion has begun. How rapidly it reaches end state will be seen in the coming years

There's definitely going to be some major changes to this industry this year... I love speculating on what it's going to look like by the end of the year. I will say this... If one regional survives it will be SkyWest! (or Mesa haha)

Mesa is like the cockroaches after the nuclear blast.

only three days left this year, not much more can happen. 😬 But with UAL alone replacing 350 rjs with mainline aircraft over the next three years, it’s a good bet there will be huge turmoil ahead in the regional world. Now is definitely the time to be working extra hard on getting out before the next downturn.

Fixed that for you

And I expect mesa will be among the first carriers with a mixed (ie not all-50 seat) fleet to fail. Their business model has always succeeded based on tight, tight staffing with cheap labor. They have no rabbits to pull out of the hat for covering flights.

Many of those rj’s are former xjt planes that are already in the desert and aren’t coming back. I don’t know what the actual number of active single class 50 seaters is, but I’d bet that it’s nowhere near 350. I do see them taking a significant hit in the next couple of years, but how that plays out is anyone’s guess. Air Wisconsin is a pretty safe bet to be the first casualty, but after that, do the CommutAir 145’s get parked, or the SkyWest 200’s? United has their top men working on it……… top men.

I hear frequently new hires (or newly offered) saying that “they just wanted anything that was an ERJ [170/5]”

We can all agree that ERJ is a more modern plane with superior instagram characteristics due to the underwing-mounted engines…

But I think this also spells at least a little doom for CRJ only operators. If the newly 1500 hour CFI can get a job anywhere they want why would they choose an Air Wisconsin…

Also the ERJ is probably more likely the future of regional flying. Nobody likes the CRJ. Except for maybe the 550s.